AlanReynoldsEcon @AlanReynoldsEcn
Economist & writer since '71. Cato Inst. Author Income & Wealth. 1981 transition team. Persuaded Wall Street Journal to adopt phrase supply-side economics. cato.org/people/alan-re… Naples FL Joined August 2012-
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This is a great facetious thread, but it also raises a serious question: For those who want the US to do more manufacturing, what do you want us to do less of?
This is a great facetious thread, but it also raises a serious question: For those who want the US to do more manufacturing, what do you want us to do less of?
Ten countries in The Economist's latest economic indicators had negative economic growth [aka recession] over the past year -- including the U.K., Austria, Germany, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Sweden and Argentina. Several others had economic growth of 1% or less, including…
California is Losing Tech Jobs, by @JosephPolitano open.substack.com/pub/apricitas/…
The annual rate of Producer Price Inflation averaged 1.8% for the past seven quarters --that is, from the second quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2024. By contrast, PPI Inflation averaged 10.5% from the first quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022. Less energy,…
Where is Russia in the list?
Where is Russia in the list?
On a quarterly basis, the annual rate of inflation for CPI less shelter has been quite low for six quarters and negative in two. The first quarter rise is largely an oil price spike related to Middle East turmoil. CPI less shelter bounces frequently, making it foolhardy to…
There are three reasons why those who do not question authority (news media and the Fed) are easily convinced that U.S. inflation is "stubbornly high." 1. They insist on measuring inflation over 12 months (6% CPI year-to-year) rather than 8 months (3.6%). 2. After leaving…
@AlanReynoldsEcn Let's not have 2008 redux. Gasoline prices are more than 50 cents a gallon higher than in January. Changing monetary policy based on small variations in monthly CPI is foolish. 1/2
World Oil prices are highly sensitive to risks of Middle-East wars -- not to whether or not the Fed makes small changes in the federal funds rate. Year-to-year changes in the Consumer Price Index largely reflect what happened to oil prices recently compared with one year ago.…
World Oil prices are highly sensitive to risks of Middle-East wars -- not to whether or not the Fed makes small changes in the federal funds rate. Year-to-year changes in the Consumer Price Index largely reflect what happened to oil prices recently compared with one year ago.… https://t.co/izc4R5ArgA
Maybe a coincidence. Or maybe not. The "We" in Havenstein's comment means the entire world because other nations were and are tied to the dollar in many ways.
Maybe a coincidence. Or maybe not. The "We" in Havenstein's comment means the entire world because other nations were and are tied to the dollar in many ways.
Seems like a good time to take stock of where the NBER 6 indicators are since the yield curve inverted. Nonfarm employment and consumption are growing, industrial production has been uniformly weak, the others are pausing. Net? Still unclear. Beware political spin, though.
Congress set a Refugee Admissions Ceiling of 125,000 for Fiscal Year 2023. Yet fewer than half the allowed number of refugees (60, 014) were admitted, according to the State Department. By contrast, Congress chooses sets no ceiling on the number of uninvited, self-defined…
Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome
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I think every economist and economic policy decision maker needs to read Adam Smith. Let’s start with the premise that gov should only do those things which citizens cannot do for themselves or cannot do well, and gov can do well. Solve for that equilibrium given what you know
This is a great facetious thread, but it also raises a serious question: For those who want the US to do more manufacturing, what do you want us to do less of?
Forget industrial policy—do you know how much our agricultural base has been eroded over the past 200 years? But manufacturing fundamentalists think that’s fine, forcing the American worker into factories where they must work for someone else!
@StephanieKelton So when do the MMTers suggest we start cutting deficit spending to manage inflation? Ever? Sincere question.
@AlanReynoldsEcn Let's not have 2008 redux. Gasoline prices are more than 50 cents a gallon higher than in January. Changing monetary policy based on small variations in monthly CPI is foolish. 1/2
@AlanReynoldsEcn Atlanta Fed is projecting 2.5% rate of growth in real GDP in Q1. No policy change should be made w/o an estimate of nominal GDP in Q1. Unless nominal GDP is growing significantly faster than 5%, a tightening would not be justified.
@Noahpinion Regardless of accuracy, this post is masterful engagement bait.
No. Historical. Causation. Between. Low. @federalreserve. Rates. And. #inflation. Our Fed-controlled monetary regime is un-democratic, socialistic, and, according to the Torah, Bible & Quran, often sinfully usurious. See this 2-min video excerpt.
Just saw this. Rest In Peace, Tom Saving: today.tamu.edu/2024/03/14/tex…
Takeaways: 1. Trump did not and does not have serious policy views on Social Security. 2. In office, he would almost certainly follow the path of least political resistance. Which is to do nothing. This isn't a guy who's risking political capital to cut benefits.
New: Donald Trump has been all over the map on Social Security and Medicare An examination of what Trump has said and done over the last quarter century, from backing major changes to his 2016 campaign, his White House budgets and the present 👇 nbcnews.com/politics/donal…
@VPrasadMDMPH Then you missed @AlanReynoldsEcn book that destroys Piketty and his work Income and Wealth (Greenwood Guides to Business and Economics) a.co/d/3roXiKj
Addendum: if you look at the NBER contractions (“recessions”), you will find many that hardly anyone noticed at the time! For instance, it has the US in a recession for 27 months between 1923 and 1928, inclusive–aka the Roaring ‘20s. 1/2
Two problems here: (1) the chart relies on outmoded NBER pre-1914 contraction stats; a more recent chronology by Joseph Davis yields a much lower number (jstor.org/stable/3875107); 1/2
Never forget that is the same Larry Summers who 'helped' us get this unemployment during the Great Recession and crushingly slow recovery. It was brutal, and it actually happened. Why do we listen to him?
Lots of word games over what "transitory" means, in an attempt to claim that a view that was basically right was somehow wrong. So let's be clear: Summers and the rest of Team Stagflation were predicting something like this 1/
Inflation plummeted to normal without significant change in unemployment …. and now that unemployment is higher they are scared of inflation surging…. You can’t make this stuff up.
The other notable voice who has been saying this is @AlanReynoldsEcn
"As a young man, I was influenced by conservative intellectuals like George Will, Irving Kristol and James Q. Wilson." Où sont les neiges d'antan ...
These songs are still bangers.
On this day in 1982, U2 released their third album, War, and their first overtly political album with songs like "Sunday Bloody Sunday" and "New Year's Day", as well as the title, which stems from the band's perception of the world at the time.
Note to Fed You´re risking being late to the game!
this "super-core" stuff is driven by health-care, insurance, etc - all late-stage echos of a transitory inflation from the pandemic that already passed thru commodities, goods, labor & is now making its way thru services. But its still transitory... However, the fintwitters…
I see fintwit is freaking out about an inflation second wave - just like the beginning of last year - which, it turns out, was a total headfake as inflation receded throughout 2023. We're gonna do this all over again in 2024, aren't we? The Fed knows that the OER inflation…
@AlanReynoldsEcn Well said. I wouldn't say "wrong technique" because there is no "right technique." 🙂 I would just say "dubious", "uninformative" or "useless." The last probably is the best.
There is simple solution, build even more ghost cities. They count twice for GDP growth, when they are constructed and when they are demolished.
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