Andrew Thrasher, CMT @AndrewThrasher
Portfolio Manager for The Financial Enhancement Group & Founder of Thrasher Analytics. Chartered Market Technician. 2x Dow Award winner & Founders Award winner thrasheranalytics.com Indianapolis Joined April 2009-
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DJIA flat, small caps leading, VIX down, looks like some dip buyers are trying to take their shot today.
Mid-week email sent this morning from Thrasher Analytics w/ an updated comments on equities and volatility. $SPX $VIX
$SPX now approaching the gap from Feb. 22. Gaps can act as areas of support/resistance when tested. Watching how the Index acts here.
S&P 500 will need to break 5,000 for it to get to -5% drawdown and is currently on day 12 since its recent 52-week high.
Nope. Flipped to a 84% down day.
Morning starting out w/ a 90+ up day for large cap stocks with non-Mag 7 sectors leading. See if this holds throughout the day.
Coffee futures are up about 50% since September and Commercial Traders are massively net short. With commodities, commercial traders often have exposure within their business and use futures to hedge. $KC_F
Commercial Traders had nailed the low in volatility. They owned over 90% of open interest, long vol when everyone else wanted nothing to do with it. $VIX
Masters starts and the market freaks out. We didn’t have this with March Madness. Golf fans need to chill.
Looks like we'll see a lot of 50-MA tests going into the weekend. Notable: Nas100, All-Cap, S&P 400, NYSE, SP100, SP500. Dow Ind, Dow Trans, R2K, & SP600 already broke below. (obviously not an exhaustive list)
The VRT is based on a combination of my 2017 Chares Dow paper "forecasting a volatility tsunami" about volatility dispersion along with several other pieces of technical analysis.
Discussed in Thrasher Analytics letter in early March the strength in commodity breadth as more began to trade above their respective 50-day Moving average. Currently, 68.4% of commodities are trading in intermediate up trends based on the 50-MA.
The latest strong price action in gold has pushed $GLD more than 10% above its 50-day MA. Historically, we've seen periods of it getting even further (15% in some instances) but 10% has been fairly stretched in most occurrences. $GC_F
Big mega cap day. If just ignored $NVDA and $APPL, the S&P 500 would be down -.16% vs being flat today. A little over 70% of large cap stocks are down on the day.
A good example from First Trust showing the historical results of letting political biases impact investment decisions.
$SPX back to last week's low and just under the 20-MA. $QQQ testing the 50-day MA again. These short-term areas of support have held up in the last several months, watching if they continue to hold or if sellers are able to break them.
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and we are into the 2/22 gap... $SPX $SPY $ES_F
It probably means not working with Edward Jones
🇺🇸
Breaking news: The US is on track to grow at double the rate of any other G7 country this year, according to IMF forecasts. on.ft.com/49GI3x8
Canary watch
S&P 500 will need to break 5,000 for it to get to -5% drawdown and is currently on day 12 since its recent 52-week high.
First workout back after a week of California fun & wine Simple, but def not easy 🫠🥴😵💫💀
@AndrewThrasher Yes. But to your point if the trade is sized properly maybe the answer is do nothing.
Nothing goes straight up forever. Lesson #1,452.
The latest strong price action in gold has pushed $GLD more than 10% above its 50-day MA. Historically, we've seen periods of it getting even further (15% in some instances) but 10% has been fairly stretched in most occurrences. $GC_F
@AndrewThrasher hah, a rate of trend is a rate of trend
@AndrewThrasher Yes. Many that haven't broke are being tested ✅
Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss why the S&P could go higher after closing at a certain level and how he's looking at energy and gold from a technical standpoint. bit.ly/3Q2fO57
@AndrewThrasher time to breakout that paper DJI
Gold's weekly Relative Strength Index surpassed a reading of 77, a scenario observed in just 3% of precedents since 1973. Instances above 77 have yielded a remarkable 17% annualized return for the precious metal.
Thanks so much @Downtown & @michaelbatnick for discussing my story on the five big themes to watch this earnings season on @TheCompoundNews youtube.com/watch?v=KNCAGe…
@profplum99 Disingenuous not to show the 100yr UST yield here, Mike
Birdie for Tiger at 1 - LET'S GOOO !!!
Birdie for Tiger at the 1st. Par 5 next. But we're not getting ahead of ourselves. No chance.
If you invest your politics, you lose. Big difference between investing based on your political affiliation vs. just staying invested at all-times. It's okay to think your "party" is right, it's not okay to inflict that on your capital. $SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA h/t @AndrewThrasher
An excellent reminder! The worst investment strategy is "I like this administration therefore I'm bullish" or "I hate this administration therefore I'm bearish." The market DOES NOT care about your politics. Separate your investment strategy from your political options.
A good example from First Trust showing the historical results of letting political biases impact investment decisions.
This is the dirty little secret financial media doesn’t want you to know. The CPI is meaningless to your wellbeing. Just a lot of jibber jabbering. I’m taking the dog for a walk.
Good weekend in Indy car at NOLA! Lots of P1 attempts…several podiums!!
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