@BrendonBernard_ @mikalskuterud That's interesting. On an unadjusted basis, Sept 2023 to Feb 2020 is up 37%, three month moving average (to remove noise, but admittedly not much seasonality) they are 46% higher. (I forgot about the seasonally adjusted series!) Still 9% higher vacancies amidst 5% more jobs...

@mikalskuterud We maybe disagree re "low skill" [low pay] newcomers. I'm OK with more such newcomers, if they can stay/ build lives (the history of this nation). I deplore the new reliance on migrant workers. And ignoring opportunities for more training/better jobs for those already here.

@mikalskuterud But we *do* have bona fide labour shortages across the country, primarily for demographic reasons. And we should be arguing to use those shortages to create better jobs for Canadians and newcomers alike. Demography hands us an opportunity to make every job a good job. Agreed?

@mikalskuterud I agree with you, sluggish wage growth is a problem, and adding labour supply makes it worse. Current immigration policies are vexing, because it seems, as you point out, it's just a fix for employers saying they can't find workers (at "prevailing" wages)

@mikalskuterud We now have ~1.2M unemployed, a troubling number. But less than in the 1990s (and 1980s!), when the #s employed were 40% or more smaller (~14.3M in 1990s, ~11.3M in 1980s. Now 20.3M)

@mikalskuterud Economic slowdown due to inflation/monpol reaction means more people are looking for work, and fewer biz are posting jobs: higher unemployment, fewer vacancies. From Feb 2020-Sept 2023, we added 19K unemployed to the mix (a 2% increase, compared to a 5% increase in jobs.

@mikalskuterud Yes vacancies drop when prices/rates go up (suppressing demand) but the bigger driver is how many people lose their jobs when that happens. Of two relationships (vacancies to inflation, vacancies to unemployment) the latter is a much stronger relationship.

@mikalskuterud Even bigger driver: a pandemic closure then reopening of an economy. We hit an all time high for vacancies, unsurprisingly, then we started filling in some of those vacancies then monetary policy rate hikes started taking effect. There are *still* more job vacancies than before

@mikalskuterud Using unadjusted monthly data, vacancies in Sept 2023 were up 37% over Feb 2020. Using 3 month moving average to reduce noise, they are up 46%

"New economic dynamics" 1. Green transition 2. Care economy 3. Building/repairing housing and infrastructure

But job markets are 5% bigger than pre pandemic, and job vacancies are 40% higher. That points to something about the underlying forces at play - more churn in a bigger pot. Why? 2 factors: 1. more turnover, as the biggest age cohort of workers ages out. 2. new economic dynamics

We've even added another 42K jobs since Sept 2023 (latest job vacancy stats) and 56K are full time (we lost 14K PT jobs) This should be celebrated, at a time when people are worried about affordability!

To be clear: adding immigrants/migrant workers *does* grow the economy and *does* fill in vacancies (and more: the labour market is GROWING - by >1M people since Feb 2020). Without them, the economy would stall out, and it wouldn't be because of monetary policy.

@BrendonBernard_ @mattlundy33 Please see this thread. twitter.com/ArmineYalnizya… Vacancies are always in flux. Some sectors have higher vacancies (built on churn) Sometimes markets have big systemic shocks (opening after a pandemic) Some vacancies are still going up (health) while some have tanked (IT)

Not just jobs being vacated, but jobs being created. The economy constantly restructures (more healthcare/long term care/childcare, more green tech/manufacturing, more construction, less other things. From Q2 2022 to Q2 2023, biggest increase in job vacancies in healthcare.(duh)

Even with more immigrants ("growing economy") we are challenged to fill the spots being newly vacated. Chart below from www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-215-…

Even with more immigrants ("growing economy") we are challenged to fill the spots being newly vacated. Chart below from www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-215-…

Even with extra people, the replacement rate is challenging. With 5-6 times the number of new retirees as you did, gonna be hard to find new workers. That's why unemployment rate is so low. Yes, some retire later now, but some retire earlier. Average retirement age is still 65

A slowing economy is a driver of the speed of these trends. A bigger driver is he underlying dynamic, which is demographics. Fewer people entering than exiting the labour market. 6x growth of people aging into 65+ group (new retirees) than everyone else. That includes immigrants

So vacancies hit an all time high. 2 data series, Mar2011 -Aug2019, and Jun2015-Sept 2023 (latest), using the same 3 month moving average method and same measures. Pre-pandemic, unemployment to vacancies ratio cut in half, from ~6:1 to ~3:1 Post-pandemic, hit ~1:1 ratio now ~2:1

The story isn't just about net vacancies going up or down, but why. Some sectors perennially have higher vacancy rates. (retail, restaurants, cleaning, transport). They are sectors defined by churn. This period was about re-opening after a global pandemic shut down the economy.

Vacancies are down but still 40% higher than pre pandemic. Plus unemployment is historically low (not there there is a natural fit between the unemployed and job vacancies, but it makes it harder to find the right fit if there are fewer people looking for jobs) twitter.com/mikalskuterud/…

In response to @mattlundy33 musing whether we still have a labour shortage problem, and if today's puzzling immigration policy (I agree) is merited. A 🧵 about why labour markets are still historically tight, despite softening after a year of spiking interest rates Good charts! twitter.com/ArmineYalnizya…

@mattlundy33 We can also go back to 1962 with Help Wanted Index and you can see that, since we've tried to measure these things, labour markets haven't been this tight. Yes it's no longer an almost 1:1 relationship with unemployment now, but it's still very close.

@mattlundy33 Having trouble with xcel but strong pattern up to 2019, and after pandemic. (No continuous data series, so replicated the 2011 to 2019 methodology here, but can't get the dates to work. The current job vacancies data series runs June 2015 to Sept 2023.www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…

@mattlundy33 Labour markets are much tighter than they were pre-pandemic, tho central banks/rising rates have weakened demand so labour shortages are not as acute. The job vacancy rate is a mirror of the unemployment rate, but it's still elevated (and unemployment is still near record lows)

@mattlundy33 Even with extra people, the replacement rate is challenging. "the growth rate of the group aged 65 and older was 3.4%, more than six times the growth rate of the population as a whole (0.5%)." Average retirement age: 65 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-215-…

@mattlundy33 More people are leaving the labour market than entering it among Canadian born. Without more immigration in the prime age groups (25-54), the labour market would be shrinking....and so would GDP (because productivity has flat lined since ~2015 www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…)

@mattlundy33 Using quarterly data to reduce noise for job vacancies): Q2 2023 vacancies are up 41% from same period pre pandemic (Q2 2019). 236.6K more vacancies. Employment also is up 5% (~ 1 M more workers) Part rates are up (more for women than men, but for both) age 15-64 (down for 15+)

The "Green Transition" will create and kill jobs. What's the net effect on the #FutureOfWorkers? Free session with @JimboStanford (ex chief economist of Unifor) and Ken Delaney (ex research director for Steelworkers). Dec 13, 2-3pm EST Register here: zeffy.com/en-CA/ticketin…