I like to make long-term bets about future AI milestones. I've made 5 bets since 2013, and I've won 4 of them so far (the 5th one comes to term in 2026). Last month I won a 4-year bet I made with @alexandr_wang (CEO of Scale) about the deployment pace of self-driving taxis.
In Sept 2018, I bet that 4 years in the future, there'd be no publicly available fully-driverless taxi service in Silicon Valley. My thesis back then was that deployment in SV would start in 2023. I think Covid added ~6mo to that timeline -- today I'd see it in late 2023 or 2024.
Such a service already exists in in East Valley in Phoenix (Waymo One). Then there are two private beta ones where members of the public can apply: Cruise in SF and Waymo in downtown Phoenix and SF. I'm not aware of anything else.
At the same Sept 2018 party, I tried to hedge my first bet by finding someone to bet *against* driverless taxis being GA in SV in 2024. But I couldn't find anyone to take that bet. It seemed obvious to all AI folks back then that driverless taxis were coming within 2-3 years max.
Right now I only have one ongoing long-term bet, with @ChrSzegedy. If you're a mutual and you feel strongly about a future prediction that you know I disagree with, hit me up, I'm taking new bets. Timeline: late 2020s. 2030 max.
@fchollet @ChrSzegedy I’m curious what’s your current bet with @ChrSzegedy 👀
@ChrSzegedy @el_keogh @fchollet This is very close to my work. Is your bet linked to an ongoing research by a known group or to the expected field progress in general?
@Abel_TorresM @el_keogh @fchollet The bet is not related to any group. (although it is my goal, too)