Ian Shepherdson @IanShepherdson
Chief Economist, Pantheon Macroeconomics. A 'danger to the world', according to some Twitter guy. For a Pantheon trial: https://t.co/hjv4yzlxDl pantheonmacro.com NY/London/Newcastle Joined July 2011-
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"Chair Powell signals a longer wait, raising the risk of a policy mistake" @IanShepherdson ow.ly/vjT550RhPhm #PantheonMacro
Amid all the retail sales excitement, I'm just going to note that core sales (ex-autos/gas/food) rose only 1.7% annualized in Q1, less than half the Q4 pace, 3.9%. One good month is not a trend.
"Inflation fundamentals are good; look forwards, not backwards" @IanShepherdson ow.ly/NuKo50RfVbk #PantheonMacroeconomics
"A dovish hold, as expected; first ECB rate cut coming right up" @ClausVistesen ow.ly/aYLh50ReKCO #PantheonMacro
Feel free to ignore the grim message from the NFIB survey of small firms, if you like. I wouldn't.
Your monthly reminder to take absolutely no notice of the monthly household employment/unemployment/participation data. Save yourself some time. Maybe have some tea. Just don't tell me that any of these numbers did anything interesting.
@IanShepherdson has called this cycle better than most @Harvard economists.
@IanShepherdson has called this cycle better than most @Harvard economists.
In the past two weeks both Powell and Waller have said they see no sign of weakening in the labor market. The NFIB survey (latest jobs number for March has just been released) very much begs to differ. The risk of the Fed sleep-walking into a slowdown/recession is rising.
Your occasional reminder that manufacturing accounts for less than 9% of payrolls and only about 11% of GDP. It flatlined last year as consumption boomed, driving up GDP growth, and it could easily strengthen this year as consumption and GDP growth slow.
So that's two questioners saying that housing inflation isn't falling. Which is an odd thing to say, given, you know, the actual data.
Will someone please ask him about this? Because it doesn't look great to me
Yes. Please tell me what that thing is.
Yes. Please tell me what that thing is.
About to do @SquawkCNBC with @BeckyQuick @andrewrsorkin and @JoeSquawk live from NY talking US econ/Fed
Two straight declines in the NFIB measure of small business sentiment, despite the stock market hitting record highs, is not a good sign. I'm increasingly worried about the labor market in the spring and summer.
"Job growth is on the verge of a serious slowdown, perhaps in March" @IanShepherdson ow.ly/3Vt650QPV48 #PantheonMacro
Whatever the Feb payroll number is today - somewhere between zero and 300K is a fair bet - the NFIB survey is yelling quite loudly that things are about to head south in the spring.
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GOOLSBEE: IT'S NOT PRODUCTIVE TO SPECULATE ON CONDITIONS FOR RAISING, OR CUTTING, RATES
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I wrote last month that one should disregard the jump in unemployment in January to 4.5%. So, you're welcome. #Philippines
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@DanielSLoeb1 @IanShepherdson @Harvard I've much agreed with Ian and think he does a great job. That said, most Harvard economists are actually a low bar comparison given they very much tend to think alike agreeing with consensus views that are often wrong.
@IanShepherdson has called this cycle better than most @Harvard economists.
In the past two weeks both Powell and Waller have said they see no sign of weakening in the labor market. The NFIB survey (latest jobs number for March has just been released) very much begs to differ. The risk of the Fed sleep-walking into a slowdown/recession is rising.
@elonmusk Also extremely false. 2 minutes of research required.
@SquawkCNBC @PantheonMacro @IanShepherdson excellent guest! Too bad that he did not go along with Wall Street media daily spin of "we are in Disney world for ever 🥳😎". Rather he squeezed in some thinking man comments.
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Well, his special skill definitely isn’t running the fucking country is it?
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she's not the only one who never imagined it wapo.st/49Haiwj
Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, said she “never imagined” that she would seek to become co-chair of the Republican National Committee. She said it was a “great honor” for her father-in-law to back her to become RNC chair. Follow live: trib.al/z4lZWj4
Personal news! Today was my last day at CNBC I joined fresh from banking in 2017 not knowing where the path would take me I've been on an incredible journey.I feel very privileged for the stories I got to cover &thankful to everyone who sat down for interviews Thank you -CNBCJou
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