The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
Official X account for The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets. Email us: [email protected] thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe United States Joined June 2015-
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How bad has the US deficit become? The US deficit as a percentage of GDP is set to be the 3rd LARGEST among major world economies in 2025. The IMF estimates the US deficit will reach 7.1% of GDP next year, more than 3x than the projected average for other developed economies.…
The US dollar has been one of the best-performing currencies of 2024 so far. Some emerging market currencies have weakened by as much as 10% compared to the US Dollar. The Chilean Peso, Turkish Lira, and Brazilian Real have weakened by 10.5%, 9.2%, and 8.1%, respectively. A…
More than half of the 224 global asset managers surveyed by BofA expect a "soft landing" over the next 12 months. This is down by 15% from January when 71% of fund managers projected a soft landing. Now, more than a third of global asset managers anticipate “no landing.” As…
Housing affordability in the US is horrible at best: Since December 2021, housing affordability has declined by ~30% This is officially the fastest drop in housing affordability on record. As mortgage rates are now back on the rise, the average 30-year mortgage rate is now…
US consumers are the most bullish on stocks since 2021, according to the University of Michigan. Most of the respondents surveyed in April expect that the stock market will be higher in the next 12 months. Expectations have been steadily increasing since 2022 when the S&P 500…
How would you describe the current state of the economy?
Our premium members NAILED bond market meltdown as we took SHORTS in $TLT on March 8th. We called for a move into $90.00 and then lowered our target to $88.50 which was just hit. Subscribe now at the link below to gain instant access to our trades: thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe
Over the past 18 months, liquidity from Treasury General Account (TGA) and Reverse Repo (RRP) has been more than offsetting the Fed’s QT. Liquidity from TGA and RRP has exceeded the Fed’s balance sheet reduction by $417 billion. While the Fed has been reduce liquidity, the US…
Q1 2024 earnings season has officially kicked off with large banks reporting earnings. Most of the companies included in the S&P 500 are scheduled to report over the next week. It is estimated that the S&P 500 companies' earnings will grow by 3.4% in Q1 after a 4.2% increase in…
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Wow, how timely was my tweet--in 40-min, SPX dropped 40 points after the tweet and "retested 5007".
5007 not solid: (1) so far, the rebound is not impulsive enough, which means that the 5007 bottom may be retested again. (2) that said, the bulk of the decline from 5211 has finished; now, it is time to build the right shoulder. (3) wait for today's knee-jerk 2-3pm round-trip.
5007 not solid: (1) so far, the rebound is not impulsive enough, which means that the 5007 bottom may be retested again. (2) that said, the bulk of the decline from 5211 has finished; now, it is time to build the right shoulder. (3) wait for today's knee-jerk 2-3pm round-trip.
As I said, Inflation, rates, #Bitcoin going higher. US Treasury Bonds are becoming toxic, guaranteed, wealth destroyers. I predict a failed market, auction failures, #BONDPOCALYPSE
“You’re going to start to see much larger swings in this market… interest rate cuts are disappearing.” - @TKL_Adam As higher for longer returns, volatility is back. Fantastic interview with Adam Taggart, @menlobear, and our Editor-in-Chief. Give it a watch at the link below.
Risk to stock valuations is increasing warns Adam Kobeissi of @KobeissiLetter Investors should prepare for "much larger swings to the downside" as the election approaches youtu.be/tuTQSuK0Y9g
MPW Mid-Week Update Posted: (1) if you are my subs, you should be happy about my analysis over the last few weeks--see the quote & roadmap for references. BTW, that is a 5-min chart. (2) it is significant where this wave belongs in the long-term, check at thekobeissiletter.com/panda
Do-or-die time (now the price is 5018, and won't be surprised that the market would close 30-40 points from this level) -- 75%/25% (up/down).
On time & on target at 4020--the lower range of the support zone--well, if it breaks, then better find a shelter to cover yourself.
BREAKING: Oil prices are now down nearly 10% from their highs as fears over higher interest rate policy spread. With markets now seeing less than 2 rate cuts in 2024, demand outlook is questionable. This has put oil prices at their lowest level since March 28th. However,…
We predicted this on April 5th and timed the EXACT top for our premium members. They took shorts and cashed in a huge gain adding to a great start to 2024. This market has been fantastic. Subscribe now at the link below to access our premium analysis: thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe
Duh (the lower low is coming)--the question [?] mark on the chart is original
A lower low would be a solid basis to go long here--of course, with tight stop; as this pattern (1) either points to a large rebound to retouch 5100 zone; (2) or just crap in its pants and drop like a stone--big risk & big reward here either way.
hahaha....
Duh (the lower low is coming)--the question [?] mark on the chart is original
On time & on target at 4020--the lower range of the support zone--well, if it breaks, then better find a shelter to cover yourself.
5020-40 Zone: (1) interesting that today's low is EXACTLY 5040, the upper range of my target zone posted a week ago; (2) pattern-wise, a small lower low is needed to conclude the wave-series from 5211, NOT the bottom of decline from 5265. (3) the ENTIRE series targets sub-4600!
@KobeissiLetter A much needed reset for the Laptop Class
Market Implied Odds of Layoffs in 2024: 1. Alphabet: 81% 2. Microsoft: 73% 3. Meta: 69% 4. Bytedance: 69% 5. Netflix: 67% 6. Nvidia: 23% This week, Tesla announced that they will be cutting 10% of their workforce, or 14,000 employees. Meanwhile, Amazon has already made layoffs…
A lower low would be a solid basis to go long here--of course, with tight stop; as this pattern (1) either points to a large rebound to retouch 5100 zone; (2) or just crap in its pants and drop like a stone--big risk & big reward here either way.
Dragon W-4: (1) If you feel confused and frustrated, regardless you are a bull or a bear, then it is highly likely that you are in a W-4 of some kind. (2) in most cases, the low at 5040 is NOT THE low of this decline; (3) however, the bulk of decline should have completed too.
LOWER LOW: (1) overnight, SPX futures hit a lower low at 5036 and then rebounded 35 pts; (2) it happened many times that the market sneakily completed its last leg when most traders were asleep; (3) either way, the market is so oversold that even a war may trigger a big bounce.
5020-40 Zone: (1) interesting that today's low is EXACTLY 5040, the upper range of my target zone posted a week ago; (2) pattern-wise, a small lower low is needed to conclude the wave-series from 5211, NOT the bottom of decline from 5265. (3) the ENTIRE series targets sub-4600!
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