David Lombardi @LombardiHimself
SF 49ers coverage @TheAthletic. Contact: [email protected]. theathletic.com/author/david-l… San Francisco, CA Joined June 2009-
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49ers enter their big day tomorrow with… option power. Trade up, trade down, stay put, 10 picks — adaptability is the best position to be in entering a crapshoot. And the NFL Draft is a crapshoot. SF used the relative predictability of free agency to position themselves for this
I’m obviously heading back to the Bay for the 49ers draft but the Rams are building a big setup here in Hermosa Beach
It will depend upon what they are offered, and who they might be able to get to replace him. I'd say it's more likely than not that he stays.
It will depend upon what they are offered, and who they might be able to get to replace him. I'd say it's more likely than not that he stays.
Here's why APY is ultimately irrelevant to 49ers/Aiyuk, especially at the top of the WR market, where there is a TON of contract fluff. To reach $30m APY: -Tyreek Hill has a non-GTD $43.9m base in final year -Amon-Ra ST. Brown has a non-GTD $35.4m base in final year If a…
Here are the top APY WR contracts sorted by fully-GTD money. Amon-Ra St. Brown came in at just over $35m, so even though APY is high, deal is nothing close to a market resetter. A (the?) key Aiyuk question: How close to $50m fully GTD. My piece on that: theathletic.com/5385657/2024/0…
It looks like a lot of people spoke way too soon about Amon-Ra St. Brown's new contract and how that might affect Brandon Aiyuk's deal. St. Brown's contract includes only $35.2 million of fully-guaranteed money, which ranks #11 of wide receivers. That matters way more than APY
It looks like a lot of people spoke way too soon about Amon-Ra St. Brown's new contract and how that might affect Brandon Aiyuk's deal. St. Brown's contract includes only $35.2 million of fully-guaranteed money, which ranks #11 of wide receivers. That matters way more than APY
APY is just an overall average. The payer has a significant degree of control over cap hits, starting with the ability to prorate bonus money over five years. So fully-guaranteed money is easier to mold around the cap
APY is just an overall average. The payer has a significant degree of control over cap hits, starting with the ability to prorate bonus money over five years. So fully-guaranteed money is easier to mold around the cap
Could be. Contractual control is valuable. But enough fully-guaranteed money could buy a concession
Could be. Contractual control is valuable. But enough fully-guaranteed money could buy a concession
Also: total guaranteed money (which is reported first) is not the same as fully guaranteed money, which is much more important in gauging these new contracts. The $77m for St. Brown is the total guarantee, not the full guarantee. So sweeping judgments must wait
If it were just about APY, the 49ers could easily give Brandon Aiyuk a deal worth $35m or even $40m annually if they felt like it. It's not hard to tack on exorbitant non-guaranteed base salaries at the end of contracts to inflate the average. See Tyreek's deal: $43.9m base…
This is $30m APY, according to surface-level numbers, but probably a good example of why I've been repeating that APY is secondary in importance to fully-GTD money and other structural details in this evolving WR market. (And we don't know the fully-GTD money here either)
This is $30m APY, according to surface-level numbers, but probably a good example of why I've been repeating that APY is secondary in importance to fully-GTD money and other structural details in this evolving WR market. (And we don't know the fully-GTD money here either)
49ers NFL Draft big board: Amarius Mims, Darius Robinson, Johnny Newton are top options in our collection of 55 prospects: theathletic.com/5430557/2024/0…
Brock Purdy, Fred Warner and an offseason of new beginnings for the 49ers theathletic.com/5437032/2024/0…
This time of the year creates echo chambers that become certain of specific courses of action (i.e. "the 49ers will pick [insert position here] at 31!"). But that'd be like making a rigid play call for a random down at the end of the first quarter three days before the game. The…
Every year, @mattbarrows and I do a dueling 49ers mock draft. Here is the 2024 version: theathletic.com/5420472/2024/0…
I remember swimming in Omaha with a crowd of about 18,000. You could barely “hear” yourself think in semis and finals. I cannot even imagine what a crowd of 30-35 thousand sounds like for a swim meet! #swimming #swimmer #swim #olympictrials #Paris2024
I remember swimming in Omaha with a crowd of about 18,000. You could barely “hear” yourself think in semis and finals. I cannot even imagine what a crowd of 30-35 thousand sounds like for a swim meet! #swimming #swimmer #swim #olympictrials #Paris2024
And what’s especially notable is that Lynch doesn’t put the 49ers at a competitive disadvantage with the information he did share. It gives us good context without hurting SF. A lot of other execs are still way too paranoid though
And what’s especially notable is that Lynch doesn’t put the 49ers at a competitive disadvantage with the information he did share. It gives us good context without hurting SF. A lot of other execs are still way too paranoid though
49ers’ John Lynch has received calls but ‘wouldn’t anticipate’ trading Brandon Aiyuk — from @mattbarrows: theathletic.com/5437119/2024/0…
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@LombardiHimself David what an outstanding story! Nice to read about the players as people and not just numbers and dollars. Thank you!
@LombardiHimself Postseason Cook Index (early down pass rate in first half, before 2M warning)
Quick thread on offensive line starters leading up to draft as I wait for code to run What if we tried to guess offensive line strength given the 5 starters listed on Ourlads and their past performance in pass protection (as measured by grade)? This is what it might look like
The analysis of “dead money” is often misguided when teams trade/cut players. The Stephon Diggs trade is easy for #bills because he was already counting a ton against cap. He counts a few mil more now. Big deal. Antonio Brown situation was similar; people who said #steelers…
There continues to be ignorance of sunk-cost fallacy in football discussions. Stefon Diggs trade the latest example. Yes, Buffalo did accrue ~$30m of dead money. But that’s money they already paid. Bills also saved ~$19m this year and ~$60m over next three. They believed…
@LombardiHimself Bro me and you are barking at the clouds together.
@LombardiHimself Side note these graphs are amazing throughout the season. Always great to have evidence like this to go along with the story. Thanks!
Gotta say it: Great stories from The Athletic Bay Area this morning. TABA doesn't exist anymore except as a distant memory, but these writers and these stories keep coming and they're tremendous.
NFL owners voted to approve the new kickoff rule.
@LombardiHimself Regular follower here, expressing gratitude for all the “stop and smell the roses” scenes you’ve given us over the years
At this point fans should probably be aware that if a non-superstar gets an extension when he still had time left on his deal, it's always going to decrease the immediate cap hit. That's a big part of why they're done--plus giving both sides a little more certainty.
For those who were upset re: Colton McKivitz's extension: It actually saved the 49ers $728k of cap space in 2024. 2024 salary reduced from $2.5m to $1.125m (now GTD). New $3.41m signing bonus awarded, prorated thru 2028 void years. 2025 essentially becomes an option year for SF
This actually makes sense for the #49ers and Armstead. 49ers need cap space in the future to pay Purdy and will eat it now, believing Armstead is a descending player having missed 13 games over the past 2 seasons and reached the magical age of 30. Armstead believes he is worth…
Source: The 49ers approached Arik Armstead about accepting a significant pay cut from his scheduled salary of $17.41 million. He declined, so the 49ers are set to release him and he will become a free agent.
Three teams should be disappointed at this and ask for clarity from the NFL Management Council. The 49ers (Garoppolo or McGlinchey) and Bills (Edwards) are the two that are well known: they were expected to get 3rd rounders for those departures instead of 4th rounders.
@LombardiHimself Have 3 guys that can cover man to man. Thats the secret. Really not to intricate. Allows you to send extra guys, which they do, because they know they can cover on the back end.
My father, my coach, my golf partner, my teammate, my biggest fan, my best friend, & my hero. We will miss you so much Dad. We love you, and you will never be forgotten💔