Alf @MacroAlf
Founder of The Macro Compass. Former Head of $20bn Portfolio. Next: CIO of my own Macro Fund. TheMacroCompass.com Joined December 2020-
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...did you know I am launching my Macro Hedge Fund? If you want to know more, my messages here on Twitter are open! 11/11
A heavy issuance focused on the long-end and/or a high target for the TGA = bond and stock sell-off. A low issuance focused on T-Bills and/or a low target for the TGA = short-end bonds rally and stonks go to the moon. And finally... 10/
In short: - Watch the size of the issuance and the announcd split between T-Bills and long-bond issuance - Watch the Treasury General Account (TGA) released target The outcome on April 30 will dictate the price action in bonds and stocks, and specifically: 9/
Follow the steps below. The drainage of the TGA unleashes: - Fresh new spendable money for the real-economy - New liquidity (reserves) for the banking sector This is a very powerful monetary combination! 8/
After the ongoing tax season, Yellen will have around USD 1 trillion in the TGA soon - that's quite high, and hence it's fair to expect a drainage to follow. But why does draining the TGA matter that much for markets and the US economy? 7/
You can think of the TGA as the checking account the US Government holds at its bank - which is the Fed. Every time the US government has accumulated excess money that it doesn't intend to immediately channel into spending, they will park it at the TGA account at the Fed. 6/
So one important thing to watch will be the share between T-Bill and long-bond issuance Yellen plans to put forward over the next 1-2 quarters. The other crucial element will be the Treasury General Account target. Why? 5/
...because they carry very limited interest rate risk. A 30-year bond is roughly 20x more volatile than a 12-month T-Bill. You can imagine how for market participants its easier to absorb trillions of T-Bills than trillions of long bonds! 4/
Yellen has been issuing a lot (I mean, a lot) of T-Bills recently. T-Bills now exceed the recommended 20% share of total US debt. She does this to ease pressure on bond markets: large fiscal deficits require large bond issuance, and T-Bills are easier to absorb... 3/
Every quarter the US Treasury publishes a set of documents highlighting: - Their expectations for upcoming bond issuance: how much, and split between bills and bonds - Their expectations for the size of the Treasury General Account (TGA) 2/
For the next 12 months markets are now pricing: A) 2%+ real GDP growth B) 2.5% core inflation C) 90% odds of a soft/no landing Good luck
To clear the debate once and for all. Higher interest rates might be stimulative until more households and corporates have to refinance their debt. At that point all they can stimulate is a recession.
Italian guy working in a US pizzeria share his end-of-day tips. Not too shabby?!
I will always be grateful to the FinTwit community for the support received over the years: cheers! Been very busy with the hedge fund launch but I’ll be soon back sharing more macro thoughts here.
A reminder that China, India and Russia are alone responsible for over 40% of global CO2 emissions. But Western people should definitely turn off airco and drink from paper straws this summer! :)
Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact
677K Followers 754 Following Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Finance/Engineering blended background. GP @egodeathcapital. BoD at https://t.co/FHNz9MBftH (where I buy my bitcoin).
Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno
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Doomberg @DoombergT
252K Followers 1K Following Account no longer active, as explained here: https://t.co/eS3eVGe4jE All other green chickens are impostors. DMs checked infrequently.
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Doomberg @DoombergT
252K Followers 1K Following Account no longer active, as explained here: https://t.co/eS3eVGe4jE All other green chickens are impostors. DMs checked infrequently.
Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund
269K Followers 2K Following If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs & blaming it on you…NOT TRADING ADVICE
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291K Followers 500 Following CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research LLC, Fmr Federal Reserve insider, Economist #FedUp https://t.co/HD8LtvuXJ8, https://t.co/QpwfxheMSJ
Conks @concodanomics
133K Followers 1K Following Global market mechanics. Male. STIR & market plumbing enthusiast. Serious works can be found via https://t.co/s5n2gkwveT. Writing a (hand)book. Not financial advice.
Michael Green @profplum99
172K Followers 1K Following Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of $FIG | not investment advice
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138K Followers 690 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
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Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺�.. @agnostoxxx
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378K Followers 1K Following Co-host of @bsurveillance; Sign up for the newsletter here: https://t.co/4EBiPWI8En
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94K Followers 2K Following GS Commodities Trader➡Canyon Cvt/Cap Arb➡Akanthos Multi-Arb/Distressed➡Kao Family Office🏦Globetrotter✈ Headbanger🤘Star Wars Fan🌌 Mixologist🍸Diver🤿
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@BobEUnlimited Euro nom GDP growth has been running at a far lower level than the US roughly in line with the difference in the deficit...
@TopTradersLive @andrewdbeer1 Here is a chart from Dan Rasmussen doing the rounds on LinkedIn. Over the last decade, bonds were favored for their ability to move opposite to stocks, but the inflation surge in 2022 showed us that this pattern breaks down when inflation exceeds 3%. Historical insights…
Nice episode of @TheMacroMarket this week. I have long held the through shared by @donnelly_brent and @MacroAlf w regard to hiking is easing. On top of Brent’s great point on longer lags, use of Deferred Asset account means IORB/RRP are fiscal printing without Treasury funding
@MacroAlf Since the introduction of “suggested tip” on the bill staring at 20% where people would otherwise have to do the lower tip math on their own has made the service industry workers billions of extra dollars. Behavioural finance nudging working its magic.
I continue to emphasize that the intuition that investors have developed over the past 40 years will not be useful in the next 10.
Bonds are a good hedge for stock investors only if core inflation is predictably below 3%. Otherwise they suck at diversifying portfolios.
@MacroAlf To be fair we outsourced our CO2 emissions to China a long time ago, but it still ours.
@TheFlowHorse I learned this wrestling in HS, after that I any fight I got in I would just let the dude gas himself out in the first minute before going to work 😀🍻
The latest podcast with @MacroAlf is out for your weekend listening pleasure. Enjoy the sunshine. spectramarkets.com/library/podcas…
@MacroAlf @verdadcap Yes! One of the very best newsletters out there.
@MacroAlf Thank you so much, Alf! Here's the link to our email list for those interested: eepurl.com/dibK3L
Someone covering tail risk in SOFR SFRZ4 98.50/99 call spread bot at .625 80000x Only $1.25m spent - perfect trade to keep the risk manager happy and also remind your executing broker that you need tickets for centre court at Wimbledon in June
The squad is getting bigger as we are looking to expand…..
New podcast with @MacroAlf is out ... For your weekend listening pleasure. We talk about how reflation and higher commodity prices are likely to accelerate because there is no credible threat of rate hikes. Fed cutting into booming commodities may be a second policy error in…
@elasticretreat The steepener trade has been predominantly placed on a bullish rates context as most playing for the cuts coming. But another interesting play is what if the steepener comes back with a vengeance...but through a bear steepener. Once all bull steepeners are washed out.
@MacroAlf No humility versus the history of inflation, but assurances that they got it right. What can possibly go wrong?
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