MortgageLogic.news @MtgLogicNews
The most trusted source for deep insight into Canada's mortgage market — dedicated to industry professionals. For consumer mortgage news, see @RobMcLister mortgagelogic.news Canada Joined July 2016-
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Yields have broken out to a new 2024 high following U.S. GDP / inflation data. More lenders will now move up fixed rates. The tide could turn again, however, if there's a curveball in tomorrow's critical U.S. PCE inflation report. Chart source: Refinitiv Eikon
Digital lender, @nestomortgages, has started selling through mortgage brokers. MLN reviews its rates & offerings — covering what's hot and what's not. mortgagelogic.news/nesto-launches… (subs)
Property Investors and 2nd Home Owners Beware: The Taxman Cometh: mortgagelogic.news/2024-budget-hi…
JUST IN: Canadian inflation comes in better than expected at 2.95% for the average core measure — its first time under 3% in almost three years. Headline inflation lands at 2.9%, right near consensus.
Here’s more clarity on OSFI’s new loan-to-income restriction, which takes effect Nov 1 at the big banks & Jan 1 for other federal lenders. It applies to lender portfolios and not individual borrowers, and *theoretically* it should have little perceptible impact until rates drop…
Here’s more clarity on OSFI’s new loan-to-income restriction, which takes effect Nov 1 at the big banks & Jan 1 for other federal lenders. It applies to lender portfolios and not individual borrowers, and *theoretically* it should have little perceptible impact until rates drop…
Canada's new 30-year insured amortization scheme is mostly good policy, apart from one glaring oversight: mortgagelogic.news/email/42b221bf… (subs)
BREAKING: Insured 30-year amortizations are coming back on August 1 for first-time homebuyers buying new construction. Also, the government will boost the amount first-time homebuyers can withdraw from RRSPs to buy a home, from $35,000 to $60,000, effective April 16.
How closely will Canadian inflation track worsening U.S. inflation? It's a critical unfolding question for mortgagors. mortgagelogic.news/bank-of-canada… (subs)
Just In: @bankofcanada stays the course with its 5% key rate, as 4 out of 5 market watchers predicted. It says: • Inflation will drop to 2.2% by Q4 (previously 2.4%) • It wants to see "sustained" downward momentum in core inflation b4 rate cuts bankofcanada.ca/2024/04/fad-pr…
Inflation Alert U.S. y/y CPI just came in spicy at 3.5% (est. 3.2%). As a result, 5yr yields are surging ahead of the 9:45 a.m. ET @bankofcanada decision. Canada's 5yr is up 12 bps to 3.72% (3.83% is the YTD high). The U.S. 5yr is soaring 20 bps.
Believe it or not, it's mathematically possible for inflation to fall under the @bankofcanada's 2% target by next month. mortgagelogic.news/bank-of-canada… (subs)
Mortgage Policy Tweaks: From Rumour to Reality? mortgagelogic.news/30-year-insure… (subs)
From the 'What you see is not what you get' file: The gap between the average Big 6 bank's advertised ("special offer") and discretionary 5-year fixed rates is ~45 bps. HSBC's departure won't help narrow that gap.
From the 'What you see is not what you get' file: The gap between the average Big 6 bank's advertised ("special offer") and discretionary 5-year fixed rates is ~45 bps. HSBC's departure won't help narrow that gap. https://t.co/B6IlUYQZCf
The day after our story on rumoured insured mortgage changes drops: mortgagelogic.news/what-will-the-… ...Trudeau teases of mortgage changes: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Either our sources are good, the tea leaves are working, or it's a happy coincidence.
There are successful people, and then there are wizard-level successes. Stephen Smith is the latter, a veritable grandmaster of the mortgage business. He doesn't just play the game, he owns the board. Watch MLN's exclusive video interview: mortgagelogic.news/stephen-smith/ (subs)
How Canada's sea change in population growth could impact real estate investors: mortgagelogic.news/immigration-se… (subs)
Important fine print on OSFI's upcoming Loan-to-Income (LTI) limit for mortgages: mortgagelogic.news/email/69ae0b2d… (subs)
Loan-to-income (LTI) limits are coming: Canada's banking watchdog is tightening the leash on mortgage borrowing again, and the leash will get shorter as rates go lower. mortgagelogic.news/new-osfi-lti-l… (subs)
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19K Followers 57 Following ➤ Mortgage columnist @financialpost ➤ Rate strategist @MtgLogicNews % Daily rate briefs: https://t.co/rj8qrMdoNk 🗞️ Bulletins: https://t.co/bh7wMcDHKSCannot believe how hot Calgary's market is even with rates where they are. No inventory, and sales-to-new listings ratio was above 90% last month. Toronto and Vancouver were in the 40s for perspective. A good reminder that there is no "Canadian" housing market.
If you bought a pre sale 3 years ago and plan to sell it on completion next year it sounds highly likely you’ll be subject to the BC Governments flipping tax.
We found 100 stranded/abandoned dogs and spent over $1,000,000 to find them loving homes! This is one of my favorite videos so I hope you consider adopting a dog :)
@DavidRJLiang1 Yeah I get the frustration but being attacked for pointing out pretty obvious near-term trends gets old quick
Housing clowns on Twitter while literally every reputable real estate account was telling them that activity was picking up in January
Respect the lag…things are starting to break.
The trend in corporate bankruptcies in Canada is something else. Another record high in Dec. ht @trevortombe who flagged this last month
@RobMcLister @financialpost @globeandmail Thank you for your great insight and expertise over the years. Will keep looking out for your columns.
Over 22,000 New Condo Units Are Going Unsold In The GTA — A “Record High” storeys.com/unsold-new-con…
Rental Apocalypse In Canada: What Can We Expect If We Have 2M New Canadians Arrive In 2 Years I wish @MarcMillerVM our immigration minister would consider these appalling numbers This means severe shortages & soaring rents This Spring will be so much pain for tenants
The vacancy rate in Canada reached 1.5% by Oct 2023, the lowest in the last 38 years (excluding 2001) Annual rent inflation is at 8%, while rent growth for turnover units (new tenants) reached 24%/yr😱 Highlights: 1. Latest vacancy rates: Toronto (1.5%), Montreal (1.5%),…
@MtgLogicNews Yes we are happy with the network so far.
There are still well-qualified buyers out there on the sidelines who will get active now that the risk of higher rates is off the table. Sales will go up heading into the spring. The question is how deep is the pool of “pent up” buyers…
From the lawyer’s desk: January 2024 is hugely and unexpectedly busy. Consumer confidence in housing is, three weeks into the year, back in a big way. Product that has not moved for months is selling. Where we go from here is anyone’s guess…
@MtgLogicNews The gift that keeps on giving
Rest in peace Calum Ross You will be missed
@RobMcLister from @globeandmail reports on the growing numbers of Canadians choosing to age in place, even if they can’t afford to do so. The good news is that options exist for older Canadians who want to age in the homes they love. #RetirementPlanning tgam.ca/3ulTpb2
US Gov't Securities Liquidity Index, worse than COVID🧐
My favorite leading recession indicator is getting more attention
1. The yield curve inverted 16 months ago. 2. 8/8 times the yield curve inverts, we get a recession. 3. The recession happens when the curve un-inverts. 4. The curve is un-inverting. 5. Payrolls are finally crapping out. A recession is inevitable. Buy 2s.
@MarcMillerVM Economics 101 -Supply & Demand Bring too many people (demand) into a housing shortage (supply) and you increase prices. To new records. Similar issues with overburdened healthcare. If you haven’t learned this in 8yrs, you never will.
Vandyk Properties has hundreds of condominiums under development but has stopped work at its Toronto-area sites and has stopped paying contractors: danger signs of its financial stability has buyers nervous and lenders refusing to comment theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/ar…
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