@itsmeagain4126 A superspreader event occurred in mid-December 2019 at Huanan Seafood Market. That superspreader event cannot, even in principle, explain the entry of SARS-CoV-2 into humans in August-November 2019. (For your reference, December 2019 occurred after August-November 2019.)
@R_H_Ebright @itsmeagain4126 Can you expand on this, I'm not following. I thought the reason to study the market was to show that the earliest cases *in Wuhan* originated there and thus rule out the WIV as a likely source for the Wuhan cases. Am I missing something?
@SashaGusevPosts @itsmeagain4126 Yes, But this works only if one ignores the fact tha August-November 2018 preceded mid-December 2019.
@SashaGusevPosts @itsmeagain4126 *August-November 2019
@R_H_Ebright @SashaGusevPosts @itsmeagain4126 where are all the cases in August to November Richard? And if this was true, why wasn't the D614G adaptation already fixed? Seems you're doing that 'date of MRCA=date of emergence' thing again.
@stuartjdneil @R_H_Ebright @itsmeagain4126 Glad I'm not the only one who felt like this thread was a bait and switch. The reason for studying the wet market is not hard to understand, and Ebright's insistence on not understanding it seems like an admission that he has no good explanation.
@SashaGusevPosts @stuartjdneil @R_H_Ebright @itsmeagain4126 Why would one assume we have perfect optics on the earliest cases, especially given presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission?
@PrometheusCHT @stuartjdneil @R_H_Ebright @itsmeagain4126 Anything is possible. But let's say the earliest known cases were localized to the WIV in December and not the wet market, and someone wrote a thread that said animal-human transition happened in August and August precedes December. What would you think of that claim?
@SashaGusevPosts @stuartjdneil @R_H_Ebright @itsmeagain4126 There's still opacity. One wouldn't precisely know who/what/when was patient zero. Albeit, the math seems to support Richard's claim.
@PrometheusCHT @stuartjdneil @R_H_Ebright @itsmeagain4126 This isn't really responding to my question. In the hypothetical, if someone wrote a thread about the key facts of covid origins and omitted that the earliest known cases were traced to the WIV, would you think they were an honest broker discussing this in good faith?
@SashaGusevPosts @stuartjdneil @R_H_Ebright @itsmeagain4126 There is no error of omission in Richard's thread. You've got it backwards.
@PrometheusCHT @stuartjdneil @R_H_Ebright @itsmeagain4126 How so? The thread omits established facts around the earliest cases in Wuhan, which are obviously relevant COVID origins. In subsequent discussions, Prof. Ebright is seemingly unable to comprehend why early cases in Wuhan are even relevant.