Shane Oliver @ShaneOliverAMP
Head of Inv Strategy & Chief Economist, AMP. Into boats, pop music, economics, investing, my family..& being nice. I don’t solicit funds/spruik trading schemes Joined July 2011-
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The bad news is that prices have gone up the most in Australia in areas we have too but don’t necessarily want to spend money on - like education, health, dwelling costs (and more recently rents) and insurance.
…the good news is that our Pipeline Inflation Indicator continues to point down and Australian inflation is continuing to fall into line with other major countries, although there is a bit of a “last mile” problem in getting inflation down.
While most of the upside surprise in Aust March qtr inflation was in services categories (rent, education, insurance, etc) and goods prices were far better behaved it was still enough to push up the breadth of high inflation readings which will worry the RBA….
Rents, insurance and educ up sharply. Weakness continues in clothing prices (-1.1%qoq), hhold equipment (-0.1%), communication (-0.3%) & recreation and culture with travel & accommodation down CPI looks on track to hit RBA’s 3.2%yoy by Dec, but risk is on upside for trimmed mean
Aust Mar qtr CPI +1%qoq/3.6%yoy, down from 4.1%yoy, but higher than exp with strong increases in health, education,rents & insurance Trimmed mean inflation +1%qoq/3.6%yoy down from 4.2%, also > exp Service inflation remaining sticky RBA rate cuts now looking unlikely until yr end
The US April composite PMI surprisingly fell with falls in both services and manufacturing and with soft orders and a plunge in employment.
G3 composite PMI basically flat in April with manu down and services up. Japan, Eurozone and UK composites all rose but the US surprisingly fell. Input and output prices fell slightly but trending sideways at elevated levels esp inputs & services. Work backlogs continuing to fall
Eurozone confidence up sharply from 2022 low but still relatively subdued. (EvercoreISI chart)
US new home sales up 9% in March, defying rise in mortgage rates (Bloomberg chart)
Eurozone shares +1.4% US shares +1.2%, Nasdaq +1.6% US 10 yr yld -1bp to 4.6% Oil +1.8% to $83.4 Gold -0.4% to $2322 Iron ore -1.2% to $110.15 ASX futures +0.35% $A 0.6486 with $US index -0.4%
Container freight rates still falling (EvercoreISI chart)
Aust April composite PMI +0.3 to a solid 53.3. New orders up again. Little change to price components which remain elevated in contrast to latest NAB survey where they fell Manu prices are ~ normal but services, esp inputs remain elevated Adds to risk of high for longer RBA rates
Eurozone shares +0.4% US shares +0.9% (was +1.4% at hi), Nasdaq +1.1% as Mid East tensions ease for now & mkt refocuses on earnings reports US 10 yr yld -1bp to 4.61% Oil -1.5% to $81.9 Gold -2.6% to $2330.4 Iron ore +0.6% to $111.5 ASX futures +0.25% $A 0.645 with $US index flat
Prelim Domain auction clearances Syd 63%=final ~61%,Apr norm 65% Mel 68%=final~65%,Apr norm 67% Syd down, Mel up but trend in clearances & sales has rolled over from earlier this yr. The housing shortage remains but hi rates & the pushing out of RBA rate cuts is weighing #ausecon
The experience with Mid East turmoil in the last wk with gold up (1st chart) on safe haven demand but Bitcoin down (2nd chart) highlights Bitcoin is not always a reliable safe haven alternative to gold. At times it reverts to being a high beta version of shares (Bloomberg charts)
The Bureau of Meteorology’s Southern Oscillation Index may have left El Niño territory but note it can be volatile mth to mth. The second chart shows it as a quarterly average. The latest El Niño (with less drought/more rain than feared) reminds that not El Nino’s are the same!
Eurozone shares -0.3% (-0.9% wk) US shares -0.9%(-3% wk). Was +0.1% on no Israel/Iran escalation then down on worries ahead tech earnings(Nas -2.1%) US 10 yr yld -1bp to 4.62% Oil +0.5% to $83.1 Gold +0.5% to $2391.9 Iron ore -0.3% to $110.9 ASX futures +0.4% $A 0.6415 w $US flat
China subway usage running above 2023 and 2019, but traffic congestion still below 2019 New property transactions running below 2023 and 2019 Same for steel demand and production (Goldman Sachs charts-
Weekly economic & market update - shares correcting; Iran/Israel risk; rate cut delays but inflation still falling ex US; supply boost helping cool Aust labour mkt; expect Aust Q1 CPI to slow to 3.4%yoy amp.com.au/insights-hub/b…
Episode #118: How vulnerable are shares? Join @DianaMousina and @ShaneOliverAMP this week on: Simplifying Investing Podcast Series Full ep on: Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/62l5SK… YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=Au0lAi…
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So moody colour resembles black and white #coathanger
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Happy new year. Peace of love everybody.😎✌️🌟💕🍒🌈🎶🥦☮️
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Do you love this Album?
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God bless Tina turner, peace and love to all her family Ringo, peace and love 😎✌️🌟❤️🎶💕🌈☮️
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