Andrew Cosgrove @acosgrove003
Ex-Bloomberg Intelligence - Metals & Mining. RTs are not endorsements & all opinions are my own. Houston, TX Joined May 2017-
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👀 … global auto industry SHUTS down without Pd. Not to mention the material would have likely leaked out anyway given ease of transport
Not saying there won’t be an epic opportunity to short certain M&M sectors soon - you had better frame downside appropriately. Assuming equity/cmdty correlations of 1 on way down vs backdrop of high px’ing for at least a Q or two prior to - is a good way to lose. #mathmatters
Hmm interesting
👀 - gonna need more than that
Aussie QLD met coal exports. If ‘20/‘21 are any reasonable guidepost - we have a view more weeks of weak flows until the pickup starts #coal
$AA v $CENX - $CENX now trading at a 1x prem at spot - $AA v $CENX ratio off 20% from early Feb highs - Both have roughly 100% upside to cons at spot
Updated “007” - still in red. No change to view. We’ve moved in a near straight line (up 12-13% in a month) - so expect some back filling here and there near-term but the dominos remain in place. Don’t miss it & don’t get shaken out. #gold
Updated “007” - still in red. No change to view. We’ve moved in a near straight line (up 12-13% in a month) - so expect some back filling here and there near-term but the dominos remain in place. Don’t miss it & don’t get shaken out. #gold https://t.co/aqxtH7d7CN
Being facetious but to further drive home the BF > EAF thematic. EAF margins running to stand still … #steel
The ‘North-Korea-fication’ of Russia continues to be underpriced. Scarcity px’ing runway lengthening with every move inward within Ukraine as it leaves the point of ‘no return’ re sanctions/cut business ties in the distant rear view
The ‘North-Korea-fication’ of Russia continues to be underpriced. Scarcity px’ing runway lengthening with every move inward within Ukraine as it leaves the point of ‘no return’ re sanctions/cut business ties in the distant rear view
With spot px having put in a semi-meaningful floor - now might be the time to take your shot $X v $NUE. A 6x premium looking out to ‘23 - that’s misplaced with scrap/metallic bid now back in passenger seat for HRC.
When you zoom out on Copper and Gold it looks a lot more like this is the beginning of something rather than the end of something for commodities... $HG_F $GC_F $GLD $CRB
Ppl are trying to fade this ALREADY! Russia just took over the first major city - you awake yet ?
Ppl are trying to fade this ALREADY! Russia just took over the first major city - you awake yet ?
US flat-rolled #steel imports fell 40% MoM - or by 6Mt annualized. Arb windows open along the curve given move in CME today. Will buyers come back with any meaningful size? SC inventories at a local peak / capacity waiting to satisfy incr. orders / lead times still on floor
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Bond bears, of which I was one until October, are making a big mistake. They are seeing that employment remains resilient and concluding that this means that monetary policy is not restrictive. Wrong! As the chart below shows, when the economy is near full employment, falling…
More on the canal issue here: zeihan.com/ukraine-war-qa… 5/end
Think $CEIX getting ahead of itself in the near-term. Opp'ty to take some off/hedge/short against other long coal holdings with bounce in SP vs drop in API2.
You cannot blow up a dam with artillery. You have to use an explosive on the inside. This was definitely the Russians. Biggest outcomes: 1/ nbcnews.com/news/world/kak…
@RenMacLLC hard data > soft data in NFIB survey too
NFIB survey always a great read into the workings of the economy. Headline confidence number will get lots of attention, but important to know its driven by soft measures which have been pretty wrong this cycle. Hard measures still elevated and show no big slowdown post SVB.
Once again reminding people that solar panels and batteries (thinking LFP specifically here) do not contain "rare earth elements". Wind turbines and some EV motors do, but there are options there. offshorewind.biz/2022/07/28/15-… electrek.co/2023/03/01/tes…
India's pellet production rises 7% in FY23 amid increasing capacities 🔸Mills expand pellet usage with eye on decarbonisation 🔸India's pellet capacity increased by 18% to over 133 mnt in FY'23 🔸Capacities, production likely to increase on increased backward integration…
@big_lithium Hina, CATL, SVolt, Farasis, Lifun, Transimage... all Chinese. The UK had Faradion before it was bought out by Reliance. Wondering wot dem man up 2 deez dayz.
@big_lithium @duncan__c Holland, Michigan, isn't the west? thomasnet.com/insights/compa… businesswire.com/news/home/2022…
@pmje73 I like thinking in terms of end mkts & then the players. Take construction for ex - resi, non-resi & institutional buildings, would incl things like: - HVAC names - doors: Jeld & Masonite - locks: Allegion & Assa - elevators: Otis & Kone - bathrooms: Geberit - flooring: Mohawk
@liensofnewyork It’s a question of “why?” not “how?” for them. What I’ve come across is “why should I care?” not “can you print numbers?” Product needs to be compelling and incremental value add not just high quality. Have thought about this a lot.
My morning viewing: Proof a Mysterious Lost Ancient GLOBAL Civilization Spanned Virtually th... youtu.be/BTd1fRCAvR4 via @YouTube
Look at the number of clean economy $B’s being dropped in the Southeast. Need to spread some into MS and LA — but damn.
This is so heartwarming ❤️ Parents, teach your kid to have the character and compassion of the kid in blue 💙
BREAKING: EDF Renewables cancels 400-megawatt solar project in Columbus, Ohio area in response to intense local opposition. This is the second-largest project in US to be canceled for this reason. insideclimatenews.org/news/22122022/…
👉Indian sponge iron #exports hit all-time high in CY'22, to cross 1 mnt 🔸India’s sponge iron exports have hit an all-time high, according to data maintained with SteelMint. Over Jan-Nov'22, volumes have already crossed 0.94 mnt, which is 40% higher from the last year.
👉India's iron ore production may drop 7-8 mnt y-o-y in CY22 🔸India's iron ore production in the first 10 months of CY22 (Jan-Oct) fell by 2.5% y-o-y to around 201 million tonnes (mnt) from over 206 mnt in the same period of last year, as per data maintained with SteelMint.
The ASR #Economics weekly is out: Will EMs be the first to cut rates? "Three factors may keep rates higher than expected in 2023" #macroeconomics #emergingmarkets #centralbanks #interestrates #inflation #recession
China's official PMIs out this morning showed a modest contraction in manufacturing output (47.8) and deeper slide in services business activity (45.1). But this almost certainly understates the economic contraction that's happening right now. 1/
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