Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx
Commodity Weather Group, LLC (CWG) helps its clients manage and mitigate the weather’s important impacts on agricultural and energy commodities. commoditywx.com Bethesda, MD, USA Joined March 2014-
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Dryness in the Central Plains during jointing/early heading is taking a toll on national wheat ratings. commoditywx.com/news/20240422/…
Warm temperatures after this week appear likely to limit corn seeding concerns at the national level despite possible wetter pockets in the western Midwest during the next 30 days. commoditywx.com/news/20240422/…
U.S. still picking up more HDDs in next 15 days than CDDs as typical seasonal crossover occurs in middle May.
Watching pop of heat in ERCOT late next week, but initial estimates favor mostly mid-upper 80s to near 90 high temperatures with higher than normal wind generation.
The latest NOAA summer outlook favors widespread above normal temperatures for summer with dryness focused on the Plains and western Midwest. commoditywx.com/news/20240418/…
Moisture deficits threaten wheat/canola seeding delays in W. Australia in early May if rains continue to lack. commoditywx.com/news/20240417/…
Normal U.S. late-season heating demand slides below incoming early-season cooling demand about month from now.
February to April tracking at 2nd lowest US HDDs of all years back to 1950; only 2012 was marginally warmer.
Upcoming cold appears not quite strong enough to lead to wheat losses, but projected 16-30 day rains will be key to avert notable yield declines in the C. Plains. commoditywx.com/news/20240415/…
Dryness in the Central Plains caused good/excellent rated wheat to slip 1% nationally in the latest USDA crop progress report. Summer crop seeding is ahead of the week #15 average pace. commoditywx.com/news/20240415/…
Active pattern should continue to weaken remaining drought spots of southern to western Texas in next two weeks.
Modeling in reasonable agreement on warm-prevailing final days of April. Overall month on track to be 2nd warmest on record (2017 still warmest).
Quick cool push moves through otherwise warm-dominated U.S. pattern over course of next week. In terms of HDDs, April on track to be 2nd warmest.
While a rogue frost event can still occur, guidance generally supports a particularly warm winter across Brazil coffee and safrinha corn areas on average. commoditywx.com/news/20240409/…
The latest NOAA NMME model remains hot across nearly the entire country, with dryness in the western Midwest. commoditywx.com/news/20240409/…
A drier trend for C. Plains wheat the next two weeks places the impetus on 16-30 day rains to avoid larger concerns. commoditywx.com/news/20240408/…
Rains in the next week will likely determine the extent/severity of stress during the balance of April for C. Brazil safrinha corn, as the 11-30 day appears quite dry. commoditywx.com/news/20240408/…
El Niño conditions continue with latest weekly NOAA data point at +1.2C warmer than normal for the NINO 3.4 central Tropical Pacific sector (moderate intensity). Models may be too fast in weakening event.
Models are favoring wet and less hot Texas May narrative, which could kick off summer differently than 2023 and 2022, given already weakened drought coverage.
Warm-dominated U.S. pattern focusing biggest anomalies around Midwest to Northeast with late-season HDDs well below 10Y and 30Y means.
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3.1M Followers 328 Following Official Twitter account for @NOAA's National Weather Service. A list of official NWS accounts can be found at https://t.co/x5itrXGTJTTotals have been creeping up! Much like the January events. NWS up to 2-3” for DC. Some models like the new European at 4-6”. Most, including the new NBM, are a widespread 2-4”. We’ll have our map out in just a bit! ❄️
☃️ON THIS DAY☃️ The 14 year anniversary of “Blizzard 2” from that record setting February of 2010. While it didn’t drop as much snow as the Feb 5-6 event, it was a brutal wind maker. ❄️: DCA-10.8” ❄️: Germantown, MD-18.0” ❄️: Westminster, MD-26.0” ❄️: BWI:-19.5” ❄️: IAD:-9.3”
Maybe we hit peak warm in the models soon? 🤔
Subseasonal models (CFS/Euro weeklies) still favoring middle February pattern shift for colder Lower 48 conditions, particularly around President's Day weekend and following short workweek.
Please check out our KnowledgeExchange.com panel discussion on Seasonal Forecasting featuring Matt Rogers from @commoditywx and David D'Arcangelo, Chief Meteorologist at Susquehanna Energy. youtu.be/KeaQeejmQgY
Wondering why they shut down the Bay Bridge? How about winds gusting to hurricane strength! Peaked at about 80mph!
@MikeTFox5 did you see this… 👀👀 HOLY WIND at the Bay Bridge!!!
It will be interesting to see what starts to happen next week with stratospheric warming. I am very curious to see what this will cause. 
This adds to the expectation that if anything is going to happen snow-wise in the South, February is the best bet. Which is pretty typical with El Niños.
CFS showing rapid deterioration of El Niño in coming weeks with perhaps only moderate intensity next month.
Ensemble mean below the 10th percentile of model climate 👀👀 Still ~2 weeks out, so not yet within reliable forecast leads for most SSWs, but regardless this is a solid signal for a very weak polar vortex -- & is likely contributing to the same model's negative NAO in January
The new Euro Seasonal forecast rather mild for December (common in El Nino years) but if it's anywhere close to right with the 500mb pattern in January and February, we're in for a fun winter! East Coast definitely has a stormy look to it! Our outlook: fox5dc.com/weather/winter…
@commoditywx Per our objective weather regime classification (plots: simonleewx.com/north-american…, data: zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/ze…) both those periods were amplified Alaskan Ridge regimes, which is what we're currently seeing.
@itsbigroballen @commoditywx October and we’re already fantasizing about phantom long range SSWE’s in mid-December that aren’t going to happen. Stop listening to Joe BUSTardi
@commoditywx Weeklies were completely lost didnt have a clue
@commoditywx This Nino is still incredibly east based and the +IOD is gaining strength very rapidly, already up to +1.5
@AdamFurey4 @commoditywx My two strongest analogs were 1951-52 and 1972-73 if memory serves me correctly. Both winters were mild and snowless in the Mid-Atlantic, even the Appalachians. Very large temperature swings too. Gravely concerned about winter chilling hours for plants.
Courtesy @StormVista: Quite a jarring rise in global SSTs this summer. #ElNino grabs the headlines, but mid-latitude SSTs are quite remarkable in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific.
So, @mattlanza and I often chuckle about how good @StormVista is with customer service. We email a question and rarely have to wait for than a few minutes for a response. But today, friends, they outdid themselves. They replied to my question 54 minutes BEFORE I sent it.
How many tropical systems do you see?
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