James Hoge @hogie777
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Jahan Dotson in 2022... Targets per route run (rate): 17.5% Yards per route run: 1.5 Not too impressive until you look at the weekly trend (games limited by injury in red). The last 5 weeks... TPRR: 24.8% YPRR: 2.44
Darnell Mooney 0.272 TPRR 2.20 YPRR 102.6% True Catch Rate (#6) 54.5% Contested Catch Rate (#15) 46.1% Route Win Rate (#18, #4 vs. Man) DJ Moore 0.268 TPRR 2.02 YPRR 82.9% True Catch Rate (#56) 32.1% Contested Catch Rate (#79) 36.5% Route Win Rate (#78, #80 vs. Man) 🤔
FF leagues aren't won in the first round of a draft Or the second
THE ANALYTICAL CASE AGAINST GABRIEL DAVIS (might not be as strong as you think) At a simple level, Gabriel Davis getting drafted in the late 4th - mid 5th round in fantasy football is hilarious 2 seasons below an 11% target share, 2 seasons below 600 receiving yards We rarely
Gabe Davis' 2021: 22.2% Target RATE [% of Targeted Throws per Route] 13.4 ADOT Let's assume he plays full-time boundary WR in 2022.. what is the pay off? To formulate an idea Group of: Target Rate (12.5% delta) ADOT (15% Delta) of his 2021 stats + 75% Route Participation ⏬⏬
Gabe Davis' 2021: 22.2% Target RATE [% of Targeted Throws per Route] 13.4 ADOT Let's assume he plays full-time boundary WR in 2022.. what is the pay off? To formulate an idea Group of: Target Rate (12.5% delta) ADOT (15% Delta) of his 2021 stats + 75% Route Participation ⏬⏬
Gabe Davis is a huge post-draft winner: — Bills don’t invest heavily at WR this off-season — Full-time role opened up with Sanders/Beasley gone — Ranked 12th-of-90 WRs in receiving yards per route (2.14) last year, right behind Tyreek Hill — Drops 8/201/4 hammers
My one mock draft for the year. I think a few of these are right and then I went with gut and logic on the rest. ⬇️🤷🏼♂️
We're going to give a @DavisGB1 autographed flash mini helmet to someone who retweets this tweet and follows us! We'll pick a winner on Monday 4/25!
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342K Followers 1K Following Senior NFL insider for @TheAthletic AP NFL VoterUsing this as a reminder to remain optimistic through misses and humble through hits: While Nico Collins was a major point of emphasis in my drafts, I was more *directionally accurate* than correct If he was a R6 pick I’d have been out and he’d still have smashed
Wide Receivers with a 90+ PFF Receiving Grade 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗝𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗧𝘆𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗛𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗕𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗶𝘆𝘂𝗸 𝗡𝗶𝗰𝗼 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝘀 ALL are priced as WR1’s expect ONE… BUY Nico Collins
Week 4 Thursday Betting Card: Amon-Ra St Brown O 9.0 Targets Jordan Love O 32.5 Pass Attempts Sam LaPorta O 42.5 Receiving Yards Christian Watson O 2.5 Catches $100 to someone who likes this if we go 4-0 On a 23-7 Run for NFL Props!
Nico Collins Weeks 1 and 2 #ReceptionPerception Charting Review is up on the site. A few notes: - True, true X-receiver - Separating so cleanly on over the middle routes - 76.7% success rate vs. man coverage - Playing bully ball gaining extra YAC - Just can't express how…
Nico Collins had a 23% TGT share, 28% TPRR, 2.05 YPRR and 61% Air Yards Share in Week 1. Was my favourite WR bet outside the “window” by a mile. Doubling down that he belongs in any conversation of start-worthy upside young WRs in all formats
The Eagles are the closest thing we have to dynasty Twitter running an NFL team
Another trade: Broncos traded TE Albert Okwuegbunam and a 2025 seventh-round pick to the Eagles for a 2025 sixth-round pick, per sources.
C.J. Stroud played nine drives this preseason. Nico Collins was his WR1: 91% route participation 30% target share 👀👀👀 34% air yards share Nico made big strides in Year 2 and is off to a good start. Borderline WR3 with upside if Stroud surprises.
Nico Collins has everything set up perfectly for a breakout year in his third season. He has an accurate quarterback, an offensive scheme that suits his skill set, and is the clear number-one wide receiver for the Texans. Bet on the breakout season. ⬇️ mnein9.substack.com/p/houston-we-h…
Sam LaPorta looks like the next great TE to emerge from Iowa and is on his way to being the TE1 in this high-powered, ascending Lions offense. Now that the NFL season has added a 17th game, it seems reasonable to project that LaPorta will see 70+ targets this season.…
Ryan Tannehill: -QB9, QB9, QB14, QB22 in fantasy points per game since joining the Titans -Top-10 in pretty much every passing efficiency metric during span -Malik Willis reportedly has outperformed Will Levis in offseason practices -Tanne available in the final round of drafts
No skips allowed, what is an album that is a perfect 10/10 in your opinion?
No Skips allowed; what is an album that is a perfect 10/10 album in your opinion?
Collins is also the only HOU WR that stands out from an archetypical stance. This team has collected every slot WR they could in the past two seasons.
NEW Nico Collins #ReceptionPerception profile is up on the site. - 71% success rate vs. man - 74.5% success rate vs. press Pretty good player and has a lot of the signs we should look for in a breakout candidate at X-receiver. receptionperception.com/nico-collins-2…
The more research and reading I do, the more and more Tank Bigsby's name pops up. He checks a lot of boxes and is on some pretty short lists when looking at some of the more predictive metrics. For example ⬇️ Day 1/2 RBs since 2016 REC MS% .10+ Yards/Team Play 1.4+ MTF/Touch…
I was researching a little on late-round rookie TE targets, and the 2023 class doesn't have any that meet both the athleticism and production profile I am looking for. However, I did find that the 23' class has two candidates at TE that are likely studs. 🧵⬇️
Which late-round WRs are worth stashing? 🧵⬇️ For this exercise, I wanted to take a look at P5 WRs drafted since 2015 in RDs 5-7 to see if there were any metrics we could use to help identify late-round targets in rookie drafts or waiver wire priority adds.
Last year, I was telling everyone to try and remain calm with Skyy. I did my year in review for him last month (youtu.be/v3V-FiklW-w) and hearing all the things I’ve heard about him, I’m getting excited
Skyy Moore has been OTA standout during our looks. Andy Reid said Skyy's worked hard in offseason: "He looks like he's on the same page with Patrick. ...In these camps, he's been doing a real nice job. Let's keep on advancing as we go, and he'll do that because he's wired right."
What’s one thread that you read over the last week that was extremely well-thought out but got completely overlooked/underviewed? This one by @mnein9 . The case for stashing Sean Tucker and Xazavian Valladay 👇🏼
Which UDFA RBs are worth stashing? 🧵⬇️ Regarding rookie drafts, of course, we need to be targeting all drafted RBs, but navigating the UDFA pool can be tricky. After some digging, we can identify high-end stashes (or the best bets) at the position using 2 key metrics.
P5 QBs drafted since 2015 with a college- EPA/Play of .400+ Career comp% of 65%+ Best season rush yards of 400+ 🔹Joe Burrow (Pick 1) 🔹Baker Mayfield (Pick 1) 🔹Kyler Murray (Pick 1) 🔹Trevor Lawrence (Pick 1) 🔹Marcus Mariota (Pick 2) 🔹Justin Fields (Pick 11) 🔹Deshaun Watson…
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