SeanPaul Padilla @invertv_dcape
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If I could chase tomorrow, I definitely would across SW IA/NW MO. Arc of semi discrete supercells in an environment very favorable for strong/intense tornadoes. Don't be surprised if we see something remotely close to Spalding NE last May.
Friday. Thats the tweet
1/ As I finally have time to look at Thursday, a bit of a complex yet potent setup aims at portions of the southern/central plains. We did not do what last Monday did with timing, as the trough looks to eject favorably for severe. What do we know?
NWS AFD ICT (Wichita) being particularly bullish with wording mentioning that "if storms can remain even semi-discrete, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are possible." Saturday could be the real deal
The NAM for Saturday has the most classic, high-end tornado outbreak from Kansas to Oklahoma assuming minimal early day convection. The rather substantial combination of strong instability and shear will be overlapped across the entire WS, leading to a volatile environment
Synoptically, Saturday looks great at first glance with a classic negatively tilted trough, diffluent flow aloft with strong moisture advection and surface cyclogenesis. However, there are some concerns about early day convection with a faster trough. We'll see what happens
Made some custom GFS synoptic charts focused at the height of the EML on Thursday. Looking like mesoscale dryline processes are gonna have to get the job done; a key thing to look out for will be areas with locally weak zonal wind ahead of the dryline.
A note on Day 3 outlook upgrades… We’ve been doing these more frequently the past couple years. It’s still uncommon, but we’ve been targeting these upgrades when we see increasing confidence in higher-end setups. In the near-ish future, we plan to do regular Day 3 updates…
Thursday's example of low-level moistening and a dramatic increase in the quality of moisture from 12z to 23z is interesting. Notice at 12z we have a moist layer to 850 mb but by 23z, richer quality moisture advects northward, leading to nearly a 700 mb moist layer
Strong to intense tornadoes would be possible... Thats some intense wording with a special amended Day 3 outlook
Pray this holds guys. We need a wxtwitter prayer 🙏
What would you do if this was an observed 21z profile in Omaha NE?
Its severe weather season yall. Day 4, Day 5 and Day 6 risks, all including me :)
Some people are just way too f*cking sensitive. There are some people who have some merit towards their feelings, but generally speaking, people get offended by the tiniest little thing Get a helmet guys
Tornado on the ground near Barr Illinois
Haven't seen this type of explosive thunderstorm development in a long time. Prepare for some amazing satellite loops in the next few hours.
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In light of the upcoming multi-day event, this probably bears repeating: Strong wording isn’t the same thing as “hype”. Hype implies exaggeration, which is often, but not always, associated with strong wording. But sometimes the strong wording isn’t an exaggeration.
Ian Hawke said that we are gonna have a super photogenic tornado in iowa on friday
Getting sick right before a busy stretch of weather and midnight shifts is really not what I need right now. 😭🤒
It’s 8:36, still a little light left , meals are prepped, 10 hours left to the target, 4 days of high end chasing ahead, new streaming equipment is working, and the HRRR is cap busting. Ladies and gentleman, welcome to PEAK season. LOCK. IN.
Last 4 GFSs 00Z Sun. Hard signal to ignore from the receiving end. Warm sector cells originate 18Z on the dryline in a tornado environment (40-50 kt 0-6, 175 0-1 SRH, moist). Upscale growth and outflow likely underdone here, and would be C OK’s best (only?) clear path out of this
Well, that's interesting. Apparently, a brief tornado occurred in Alaska on April 20th, 2024, near Rusty Point. This would be the first ever tornado in Alaska since the implementation of the Enhanced Fujita scale. The last official AK tornado was on July 25, 2005! 19 years ago.
I PASSED MY DEFENSE!!!! Thank you to everybody who joined and listened to me ramble for 45 minutes
NEW: Veteran ABC 33/40 News Anchor Pam Huff announces retirement -- MORE ➡ abc3340.com/news/local/pam…
Pam and I have worked together since 1979, when I came to Channel 13 as a 23 year old weather anchor. Pam has taught me much about mass communication and television over the years; I am so thankful. While the time has come for Pam to step away, understand I’m just getting…
NEW: Veteran ABC 33/40 News Anchor Pam Huff announces retirement -- MORE ➡ abc3340.com/news/local/pam…
1/ As I finally have time to look at Thursday, a bit of a complex yet potent setup aims at portions of the southern/central plains. We did not do what last Monday did with timing, as the trough looks to eject favorably for severe. What do we know?
well that's concerning
Confused about where to go on Thursday? Don’t worry… I got you covered. I spent 3 hours going over the data so you don’t have to waste your time. Please like and subscribe.
Made some custom GFS synoptic charts focused at the height of the EML on Thursday. Looking like mesoscale dryline processes are gonna have to get the job done; a key thing to look out for will be areas with locally weak zonal wind ahead of the dryline.
A note on Day 3 outlook upgrades… We’ve been doing these more frequently the past couple years. It’s still uncommon, but we’ve been targeting these upgrades when we see increasing confidence in higher-end setups. In the near-ish future, we plan to do regular Day 3 updates…
Risk of tornadoes in central OK on Friday at 3:30pm has greatly increased. I am very sorry to everyone in Cleveland county, but this is indeed a valid forecasting tool.
The upcoming severe events are ones that are likely high impact in rapid succession. We still need time for things to become clearer, but we’re heading towards an active stretch of high impact weather. Hopefully, we can shine as forecasters and not overhype the setups.
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