Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant
Founder, Kai Volatility. 24y Quant/Vol/Flow PM. Ex-MMaker,+10% of SPXOpt’s‘06-10. @phillipsacademy, @RiceAlumni, @KelloggAlumni, Vanna-Charmer🐍,🚫Invest Advice kaivolatility.com Chicago, IL Joined October 2010-
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Options market now implying a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates within the next 12 months. We've gone from 6 cuts to 4 cuts to 3 cuts to 2 cuts to 0 cuts to a rate hike in half a year 😂
Mark your 📅 for the EPIC 4/30 "PNL for a Purpose" live streaming charity event! 12 hours of live streaming with an incredible list of speakers, including: @options_insight @dampedspring @Mike_Taylor1972 @jam_croissant @StocktonKatie @profplum99 @choffstein @rjparkerjr09…
Really excited to announce the first @excessreturnpod and @spotgamma charity day. We will interview 24 great guests, including @jam_croissant, @jposhaughnessy, @dampedspring and @EpsilonTheory live on YouTube and X from 8AM to 8PM on 4/30 to help raise money to fight cancer.
Breaking: Wall Street execs following @WhiteHouse economic policy say @JoeBiden Administration plans to ramp up spending even more as @federalreserve postpones rate cuts; @SecYellen likely to continue to roll over short term debt to prevent a spike in 10-year yields that caused…
remember back in December when @jam_croissant said "short single names, long calls" as a way to play the rally but be ready for the decline? working very well 💯🙌🏼🙏🏼 $NVDA $SMCI $AVGO et al
@ces921 @jam_croissant In the past he has said something along the lines of. When those flows are strongest (today and tomorrow) and the market is down it tells you a lot about the other flows in the market
The Fed will support growth as the U.S. enters stagflation, says @jam_croissant. November elections could be influencing the Fed, with Karsan pointing to political pressures on the central bank to lift the economy. Karsan explains what it could mean for the options market.
🥐 fresh crumbs @jam_croissant with @public The structural 👸🦥flows that have been present over the past couple of weeks leading into #OPex have made it hard for the market to sell off 🔸 Inflation is not transitory and is likely to persist 🔸 Fed is prioritizing economic…
$SPX on 👸/ 🦥 week be like…
👇 🎯👇
The Fed right now… 😬 History will not judge this Fed meeting well.
And as always will give credit where credit is due S/o to Cem for calling it back in early 2021.
And as always will give credit where credit is due S/o to Cem for calling it back in early 2021.
🥐rumbs from the CBOE floor on @CNBC with @RickSantelli
Bond Yields Up and Gold Up? Our new global bestseller "When Markets Speak" - Classic 1970s action, the inverse relationship between gold and 10-year Treasury yields is starting to decouple. Gold at all-time highs in the face of bond market weakness is trouble for the Fed (and…
🥐rumbs from the CBOE floor on @CNBC with @RickSantelli 1pm Central (2pm East) @PowerLunch
Another reason why it just isn’t clear the median would shift to 50 bp cuts for 24’: growth surprised on downside (based on 66 indicators) even as inflation surprised up.
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Vol Smile Legend is smiling tonight. @jam_croissant @spotgamma @Ksidiii
@jam_croissant *throws 🩴 at the podium* … 🙃
Options market now implying a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates within the next 12 months. We've gone from 6 cuts to 4 cuts to 3 cuts to 2 cuts to 0 cuts to a rate hike in half a year 😂
@tallnfat @WarrenPies @3F_Research While you generally "don't get no respect", with all due respect, election cycles are indeed relevant where Populism and Fiscal spend run rampant. @jam_croissant researched the prior episodes. Not only 6 of 6 positive, but SP500 returned an avg of 21%.
Going back several yrs now @jam_croissant could not have been more clear & more correct about the BRICS+ - Africa - OPEC alignment becoming powerful enough to veto plans by Jay & Janet. That was the "Thermodynamics" @chamath provides details of the "Mechanism" @SamanthaLaDuc HFL
I know a lot of you hate Chamath but this is excellent. He thinks the next move by the Fed is a rate hike. He puts the odds at 75-25.
Soon we won’t be able to tell the difference between the robots and humans.
And a big thank you to @SimplifyAsstMgt for sponsoring the event and helping us raise money for a great cause.
Really excited to announce the first @excessreturnpod and @spotgamma charity day. We will interview 24 great guests, including @jam_croissant, @jposhaughnessy, @dampedspring and @EpsilonTheory live on YouTube and X from 8AM to 8PM on 4/30 to help raise money to fight cancer.
@PutSellerPablo Historically this is spot on. You probably already know this but populist election years average 20% s&p gains. Heard that from @jam_croissant and checked myself, absolutely true. Most of those years did see decent corrections as well (some 5%+)
Breaking: Wall Street execs following @WhiteHouse economic policy say @JoeBiden Administration plans to ramp up spending even more as @federalreserve postpones rate cuts; @SecYellen likely to continue to roll over short term debt to prevent a spike in 10-year yields that caused…
Breaking: Wall Street execs following @WhiteHouse economic policy say @JoeBiden Administration plans to ramp up spending even more as @federalreserve postpones rate cuts; @SecYellen likely to continue to roll over short term debt to prevent a spike in 10-year yields that caused…
Mark your 📅 for the EPIC 4/30 "PNL for a Purpose" live streaming charity event! 12 hours of live streaming with an incredible list of speakers, including: @options_insight @dampedspring @Mike_Taylor1972 @jam_croissant @StocktonKatie @profplum99 @choffstein @rjparkerjr09…
@ag_trader No panic Brody … peep $USDJPY should tell us everything
remember back in December when @jam_croissant said "short single names, long calls" as a way to play the rally but be ready for the decline? working very well 💯🙌🏼🙏🏼 $NVDA $SMCI $AVGO et al
@ozzy_livin @jam_croissant @public I would add @jam_croissant, that Yellen has Powell and Co. over a barrel... how the TBAC issues bonds vs bills is having more impact on financial conditions than Fed hikes. We're in Fiscal Dominance mode because of all the federal debt and spending
@mokumo890 @palantirbull1 @DisAnalyst @jam_croissant It's been an incredible year ... and I never fade 🥐
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