MARCUS REYNOLDS @marcusreynold19
Contact info Email: [email protected]. Storm Chaser, Photographer, Maker, Legendary Idiot linktr.ee/LandAndSkyPhoto Probably the middle of nowhere Joined July 2015-
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2:32am CDT #SPC Day3 Outlook Enhanced Risk: for parts of central/eastern KS northwest MO far southeast NE much of OK and part of north TX spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo…
You can actually estimate downdraft intensity pretty well just by measuring the pressure rises they cause at the surface. This is made possible by the fact that all downdrafts must decelerate to zero as they hit the ground in order to uphold mass continuity.
As with most broad-based trof ejections with the forcing overspreading a wide warm sector, multiple rounds of storms are likely. I’m just not sure there will be an early round prior to 21z that spits out a large cold pool.
Early over-convection on Sat is not implausible but I believe the global models might be overdoing it. Minimal height falls ahead of the core trof axis and OK being under the subsident right-exit region of the 300-mb jet streak argues against substantial early upscale growth
Man that 00z HRRR is WILD for Friday, and frankly not an unreasonable expectation for the day given the available moisture and synoptic pattern.
Pretty good haul of critters today on my hike! I know @theScantman will appreciate the Western Ribbon Snake
C R A N E F L Y M A T I N G I N B I O
We just picked up Happy Dad beer stickers for the Dominator 3 for the upcoming storm chases in support of our science mission
I'm all modeled out, time to go walk around in the woods for a while
The NAM for Saturday has the most classic, high-end tornado outbreak from Kansas to Oklahoma assuming minimal early day convection. The rather substantial combination of strong instability and shear will be overlapped across the entire WS, leading to a volatile environment
I really try not to do posts like these, but the synoptic pattern with this event holds the highest potential of the season so far. Broad bottom negative tilt trough ejecting across an extremely large warm sector. In all honesty the NAM actually seems like a reasonable upper…
I really try not to do posts like these, but the synoptic pattern with this event holds the highest potential of the season so far. Broad bottom negative tilt trough ejecting across an extremely large warm sector. In all honesty the NAM actually seems like a reasonable upper… https://t.co/ymbNzTbjoh
Preface: it’s just a model and likely not rooted completely in reality. The 12z NAM is displaying the potential for one of the largest scale tornado outbreaks known to the plains, hands down. Soundings from IL/WI, C KS, C OK
Friendly fumble earlier today Rough Greensnake @theScantman
Long forecast discussion covering the upcoming string of severe weather across the US! landskyphotography.com/forecast-musin…
I’m caught up taking care of things the next two days so I will not be able to chase until Thursday, good luck to the few that are gambling on some content these next couple of low end days!
Thursday continues to be a day where the forcing (oomph) – an upper-air disturbance – looks to arrive just in time to generate dryline supercells in the 6 to 8 p.m. window. Liking the look of setting up somewhere between Dodge City, Kansas and Shamrock, Texas.
I’m genuinely surprised at the inclusion of a hatched area for hail today in TX, extremely small SRI and an exceedingly dry environment should strongly stunt hail growth. This being said, accumulating small hail may be a threat with small, potentially hail efficient storms.
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Most A.I. applications are vaporware or silly, but this weather front analysis tool is genius.
Predicted front positions for the next 4 days of severe weather (Thursday-Sunday)
0Z Day Tornado Forecast (New New 2022 Models)
You can actually estimate downdraft intensity pretty well just by measuring the pressure rises they cause at the surface. This is made possible by the fact that all downdrafts must decelerate to zero as they hit the ground in order to uphold mass continuity.
@GhostTrainPhoto @VORTEXJeff I couldn’t do this one without her!
As with most broad-based trof ejections with the forcing overspreading a wide warm sector, multiple rounds of storms are likely. I’m just not sure there will be an early round prior to 21z that spits out a large cold pool.
Early over-convection on Sat is not implausible but I believe the global models might be overdoing it. Minimal height falls ahead of the core trof axis and OK being under the subsident right-exit region of the 300-mb jet streak argues against substantial early upscale growth
In today's episode of CWA Rankings: 🌪️Tornado Warnings per km²🌪️
Current view of me after looking at models for this multi-day severe weather threat. #BuckleUpFolks
CANADA STORM CHASERS, TIMMIES DOES PIZZA NOW COFFEE AND PIZZA THIS IS A GAME CHANGER. #onwx
@aaronjayjack No doubt about it lmao! Tahoe going full send.
Barring early convective influence, I am quite suspicious of the GFS' depiction of surface winds that are west of due south in OK here with a 990 mb surface low that deepens 7 mb between 15z and 21z in SW KS.
We just picked up Happy Dad beer stickers for the Dominator 3 for the upcoming storm chases in support of our science mission
I miss the 30% delineation, all-on-the-same-image graphics for D4-7 SPC risks pre 2015
That is one stout elevated mixed layer at Norman with *nearly* dry adiabatic lapse rates from 800-450 mb.
The NAM for Saturday has the most classic, high-end tornado outbreak from Kansas to Oklahoma assuming minimal early day convection. The rather substantial combination of strong instability and shear will be overlapped across the entire WS, leading to a volatile environment
There will be 1 million chasers on Saturday if that NAM solution is anywhere close to right
@marcusreynold19 @ReedTimmerUSA @BradArnoldWX That was a lot of words to say, “See you Thursday!” 😆
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