Wolfpack Stats @ncstatestats
Describing NC State athletics with numbers Joined April 2022-
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I have no gripes with how State has played in this game. They’ve had luck go their way in conference play but giving it all back in these midweeks. Frustrating
I don’t have concerns with BHH and James translating to a real basketball team offensively. Louisville’s problem was they didn’t shoot enough 3s and didn’t make any, easily fixable and didn’t apply to them. Defensive side worries me, dependent on what State’s strategy is though
Mike James is another where the sum is greater than the parts. Biggest strength is his 50% FTR. Analytically, resembles Jayden Taylor at Butler, obviously doing so at a higher level. Clearly, State is comfortable with the evaluation and thinks they can get more out of him
Here’s Avent’s comment on Whitaker in the context of the adversity State has faced. Maybe it’s just me… this is frightening. Hope he is okay
On one hand, the resume is second to none while being ravaged by injuries and the raw talent is obvious. On the other hand, -21 run differential in ACC games, mercy-ruled 3 times, can’t win midweeks and bottom third in the ACC in hitting and pitching. 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
Having to use Highfill and Van Dam in the same game is killing State without Whitaker
Honeycutt and Donofrio have combined for 12.4 defensive runs saved this year, feels like they’ve doubled it this weekend. I never want to see them again
Dom Fritton last 2 starts 11.2 innings 7 hits 4 earned runs 5 BBs 13 Ks 3 HR 4 XBH ERA dropped from 9.29 to 7.59
Dudan vs Honeycutt with the game on the line is insane theater
That bunt decision with Cozart was pathetic. Thankfully didn’t backfire
State has to be more careful with Highfill First 5 starts: avg 82 pitches Next 2 starts: 117 then 110 on short rest Since then Missed start 6.2 innings 10 runs 5 BBs, 5 Ks 5 home runs ERA: 3.72➡️5.16 Last year: 1.37 ERA before 3/26 3/26: threw twice in DH Finished with 4.83 ERA
Cozart ACC wRC+ jumped from 81 to 94 last night. Last year he hit 7 home runs and had 16 XBH in the ACC, this year it’s 1 and 4 respectively. Slug% was .579, now it’s .377. Fly ball rate has dropped from 44% to 32%. Everything else he’s doing is fine, but need his pop badly
Butterworth hit that ball 102 MPH. No idea if he can hit the ball harder than that, but somehow less than 5% of his fly balls are home runs and he has a .253 BABIP, both crazy low. 19% BBs, 15% Ks is outstanding. A major breakout could be coming
Big moment for Butterworth truthers (me) Derrick Smith changed my life Pop from the lineup makes a difference Impressed with UNC, they’re good Negatives: 17 fly balls allowed is way too many Defense has to be better
Styles is a jack of all trades, master of none 37% from 3 51% at rim 110 oRTG 50% eFG 7% off reb 13% def reb 14% turnovers 3.2% stocks 33% free throw rate
12 ACC games left 6 non-conf games 32 RPI 37 ELO 41 DSR 5-3 quad 1 11-10 quad 1+2 9-4 quad 3+4 4 more ACC wins locks up a bid 7 more ACC wins gets a host Tonight UNC -160 State +124
Midweeks Wins: Queens Coastal Losses: UNCG ECU UNCW Campbell -12 run differential
Team offense in ACC play Bad .425 slug (12th) .782 OPS (12th) 23 HR (9th) 7 steals (9th) 91 wRC+ (12th) Good 18% K rate (3rd) 11.4% BB rate (5th) .293 BABIP (14th), 12.6% HR/FB (12th) ➡️ bad luck 41% ground ball rate (13th) 39% fly ball rate (8th) Need some power ASAP
State offense got one total runner to second base in the last 13 innings, and it happened on an infield single and sac bunt
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@ncstatestats The BABIP is terrible and booth teams getting cooked by these volunteer umpires. It’s a joke we don’t have league regulated umpires in mid week games.
@ncstatestats Last year BHH stepped up big time, he’s going be an impact player. I really like Mike James too, plays hard, but he’s really inconsistent offensively, and is horrendous defensively. The good news is that he actually has a real coach now, which should help his development.
@ncstatestats Whit has been our best arm this year in my opinion. In his absence Fritton has stepped up and if that continues and Whit returns we have 3 solid starters. Offensively I wish we had more speed at the top of the lineup.
@ncstatestats Now 2-5 in Game 3s of ACC series as well, with BC and ND the only wins. Looks like a team where, no matter what seed they end up being, it's gonna be really imperative they start 2-0 if they're going to win a regional.
@ncstatestats Pack is doing it with smoke / mirrors / guts / pixie dust etc etc…somehow someway….Heels are really good…winning 2/3 from Dook / Klempson / Holes with our metrics is why baseball is a maddening but lovable game #SkoPack
FINAL: @NCStateBaseball clinches another marquee series with a comeback 5-4 win vs rival UNC. Freshman Jacob Dudan was electric in a 1-2-3 9th, pumping 96-98 heat, freezing Honeycutt on 96 on the black to end it. Fellow frosh Luke Nixon made 2 great diving plays behind him at 2B.
@ncstatestats Good to know! Appreciate that and those stats definitely paint the picture.
CALLED. GAME. #Pack9 | @SlippinOnButter
State is 1 win away from going 3-0 in series against projected hosts with 3 more opportunities. I think State is 4/5 wins away from hosting a regional. At this point a super regional is well in play. The negativity around State baseball has been stupid. Omaha upside.
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@ncstatestats Would be a fascinating resume to find out how much every game truly matters. Went deeper on this the other night and found 1 host with 20 losses since pandemic, Florida 2022 made SEC title game. Probably depends on other contenders. Hope we find out.
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@ncstatestats Gotta get Cozart hitting for some power again. UNC series probably looks a lot more like Friday’s game
@ncstatestats And were 2 of those walks the tail end of this 90 pitch outing? He's elevated his game
@TuckerBlanc @ncstatestats He’s in a boot per Sanders’ pregame
@ncstatestats Great post with great info. Thanks. Hopefully we get Highfill and Whit back this weekend. If not…..😔
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