Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach
Meteorologist at CSU specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts. Avid runner, cyclist and hiker. Appalachian Trail thru-hiker in 2002. tropical.colostate.edu Colorado Joined July 2009-
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NOAA's latest probabilistic ENSO forecast gives 80% chance of #LaNina conditions for peak of Atlantic hurricane season (August-October). La Nina typically increases Atlantic #hurricane activity via decreases in vertical wind shear. NOAA blog post here: climate.gov/news-features/…
10 groups have submitted predictions to the Seasonal Hurricane Predictions platform (seasonalhurricanepredictions.org) so far for the 2024 Atlantic #hurricane season. All groups are calling for an above-normal season, with the average of all forecasts calling for 11 hurricanes.
Latest North American Multimodel Ensemble output for August-October continues to favor #LaNina, an extremely warm tropic Atlantic and enhanced precipitation across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean - all signs of a very busy Atlantic #hurricane season coming up.
ECMWF is calling for an extremely active Atlantic #hurricane season with 21 named storms, ~11 hurricanes and 170% of normal Accumulated Cyclone Energy through October.
CSU's April 2024 seasonal #hurricane forecast has been translated into Spanish: tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-… Thanks to @AngelieTeresa and @Delian_wx for the translation!
CSU's five analogs for the 2024 Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast are: 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010, and 2020. Analogs are selected based on likely #LaNina and above-normal sea surface temperatures in tropical Atlantic for August-October.
One reason for the very active Atlantic #hurricane season forecast from CSU is the significant potential for #LaNina development. La Nina typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity via decreases in Caribbean/tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.
Thanks to our sponsors @iiiorg, @IronshoreInc, @IAA_Auctions and @theWeatherboy for generous support that allow CSU's seasonal hurricane forecasts to continue.
The eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal, favoring Atlantic #hurricane activity. This anomalous warmth is the primary reason why CSU's seasonal hurricane forecast for 2024 is calling for such an active season.
CSU's seasonal #hurricane forecast release is currently being livestreamed at: hurricanecenterlive.com/live-event.html
Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU calls for very active season: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes & 5 major hurricanes. Extremely warm tropical Atlantic and likely #LaNina are the primary reasons. tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-…
Colorado State University will issue its first 2024 Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast at 10am EDT on Thursday, April 4. Release will be livestreamed from @HurricaneCon at: hurricanecenterlive.com/live-event.html
Latest forecast from Canadian climate model (CanSIPS) continues to predict conditions associated with active Atlantic #hurricane season, including below-normal vertical wind shear, above-normal precip, below-normal pressure and warm SSTs in the tropical Atlantic for Aug-Oct
NOAA increases chances for #LaNina for peak of the Atlantic #hurricane season (August-October) from 64% to 74%. Odds of #ElNino have decreased from 6% to 2%. La Nina tends to increase Atlantic hurricane activity via decreases in vertical wind shear, while El Nino increases shear.
ECMWF forecast for March-May calls for below-normal pressure in subtropical northeast Atlantic. That would result in weaker trades across tropical Atlantic, reinforcing current warmer-than-normal sea surface temps. CSU's first seasonal #hurricane forecast comes out on 4 April.
Tropical Cyclone 10 has formed in the South Pacific at ~165°W - the farthest east that a named storm (>= 39 mph) has formed in the Southern Hemisphere since Yalo in 2016.
Eric Webb @webberweather
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@philklotzbach @AngelieTeresa @Delian_wx Muchas felicidades @Delian_wx !!!
@philklotzbach Excellent presentation thank you
Hurricane Interview Season has officially begun! And the first Spanish interview was for my beautiful island of Puerto Rico 🤍☁︎🌀 Stay tuned for CSU’s official release on Thursday, April 4th #HurricaneSeason
@philklotzbach @HurricaneCon Beat ya to it. x.com/BrokerWx/statu…
#BREAKING: CSU has released its 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast early than expected & it's the lowest projection on record. 4 TS, 1 H, & 0 MH! Their reasoning is due to potential wavebreaking due to the onslaught of Sahara Dust from the NAM model. All media hype!
This is like the -NAO to end all -NAOs haha.
How low could the MDR SST stay in 2024 based on historical behaviour? For each day after Mar 10th, I took the lowest delta of SST between each future day and Mar 10th from 1981-2023 and added it to Mar 10 2024's MDR SST. It still stays pretty warm...
Still snowing this morning. Nearly 11" storm total. Very fluffy snow. Probably 25:1 ratio. ❄️☃️
Congratulations to Dan Noah, Warning Coordination Meteorologist @NWSTampaBay, as we celebrated his upcoming retirement with many friends and partners from across the state of Florida today @PinellasEM. It is all about people and relationships that help us through any storm. #flwx
Here is my updated 2023 Hurricane Season forecast: 20 named storms 7 hurricanes 3 major hurricanes
@philklotzbach Best news? Damage/deaths for the year were very minimal. 3rd fewest deaths since 2000. #RunFromTheWaterHideFromTheWind
Morning sunrise from Maggie Valley, NC. @simpsonWVTM13 @StephWVTM13 @spann @wxevan
How strange is baseball? The Orioles: Go through an entire season and don't get swept in any series. Get back to October ... and get swept. Only one other team has ever done that: the 1998 Padres, who were managed by... Bruce Bochy (@SlangsOnSports was on this, of course!)
@philklotzbach Still miss him @philklotzbach , and his first-day-of-hurricane-season donuts.