Michael Green @profplum99
Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of $FIG | not investment advice yesigiveafig.com Places unknown Joined December 2012-
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Just a brief reminder that the reduction in "PEADS" (Post-Earnings Announcement Drift" is one of the academic metrics used to show increased market efficiency. I prefer to just note that META can post a huge beat or a huge miss... and then it behaves just like the market (with…
Just a brief reminder that the reduction in "PEADS" (Post-Earnings Announcement Drift" is one of the academic metrics used to show increased market efficiency. I prefer to just note that META can post a huge beat or a huge miss... and then it behaves just like the market (with… https://t.co/AclXcsgza7
Ascii and ye shall receive... chart based analogies obviously data mining, but boy does the analog still work
Ascii and ye shall receive... chart based analogies obviously data mining, but boy does the analog still work https://t.co/2ilTcHvWFj
The good news is that @wealthofcs eventually catches up. x.com/profplum99/sta… Looking forward to my discussion on passive with @Ritholtz next Wednesday.
The good news is that @wealthofcs eventually catches up. x.com/profplum99/sta… Looking forward to my discussion on passive with @Ritholtz next Wednesday.
Just leaving this here... fund manager cash allocations at multi-decade lows... You know who doesn't respond to fund manager surveys (FMS)? Machines
Just leaving this here... fund manager cash allocations at multi-decade lows... You know who doesn't respond to fund manager surveys (FMS)? Machines https://t.co/TMLUX8qjh4
"@profplum99 has been so terribly wrong this cycle, don’t follow or listen to him." Truer words n'er spoken
"@profplum99 has been so terribly wrong this cycle, don’t follow or listen to him." Truer words n'er spoken
How do they run their DCFs so fast? I was still updating my handwritten notes...
How do they run their DCFs so fast? I was still updating my handwritten notes...
Such a novel concept that people might oppose taxation without (effective) representation youtu.be/8lMOL7GaPWI?si…
Such a novel concept that people might oppose taxation without (effective) representation youtu.be/8lMOL7GaPWI?si…
Agree. The BED new business formation data (births) is “current” through Q3-2023, but “deaths” are still estimated.
Agree. The BED new business formation data (births) is “current” through Q3-2023, but “deaths” are still estimated.
"We demand a solution to excessive budget deficits! -- BUT NOT THAT SOLUTION!" Just a reminder that the primary deficit is now below pre-Covid projections
"We demand a solution to excessive budget deficits! -- BUT NOT THAT SOLUTION!" Just a reminder that the primary deficit is now below pre-Covid projections https://t.co/bCMtRE6Y0a
@profplum99 on @RationalRemind, episode 302, coming out April 25th - @profplum99 sur @RationalRemind, épisode 302, sortie le 25 avril. (disponible en anglais seulement) rationalreminder.ca🎧
Thanks to Elon Musk, we may get a second shot at resolving the demographics issue of Boomer retirements.
Thanks to Elon Musk, we may get a second shot at resolving the demographics issue of Boomer retirements.
Well, the Business Dynamics revision is up and turns out that Birth/Death models weren't all that inaccurate (/s). As a reminder, they projected 264K jobs created NSA (roughly 100K jobs per month seasonally adjusted). The actual data was a LOSS of 198K jobs. So the net 500K jobs…
And now, where are all my "soaring breakevens" clowns?
There WAS a documentary on this in the 1980s youtube.com/watch?v=MHH7U4…
There WAS a documentary on this in the 1980s youtube.com/watch?v=MHH7U4…
Particularly egregious bot. @Santiag78758327 and @RajaKorman apparently fooled. Please report and block.
Good lord… I would have expected @CliffordAsness to have figured this out. I continually overestimate him. x.com/profplum99/sta…
Good lord… I would have expected @CliffordAsness to have figured this out. I continually overestimate him. x.com/profplum99/sta…
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
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Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund
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@profplum99 Mike. A neat chart for you.. back in 1990s I used to do similar with Walmart (pre online shopping).
Bond market missed the memo: The ImpVol for UST 2yrs is 117nv: In plain English that indicates a 16% chance it will close above 5.85% and a 16% chance it will close below 4.05% on Election Day. This is just plain silly, the FED is "one and done" (as detailed in my latest…
It’s not the corruption itself that bothers me the most, it’s that we are no longer outraged when we see it.
@stevehouf @Citrini7 None of those are the main reason, The main reason is that the inflation accrual is NSA, so when exactly a bond expires relative to todays date swings things around alot (Less relevant as maturity gets longer
@dampedspring @profplum99 I can only imagine he's joking
@profplum99 lol Appreciate you pointing that out to me
@profplum99 @RajaKorman He's at least one lesser than you!
@profplum99 @Santiag78758327 Just reported. Sorry about that.
Again, for the back row, fiscal dominance is when the monetary authority can't run an independent monetary policy aimed at its mandate and has to subjugate its mandate to fiscal objectives. If this were the case in the US the Fed would have never been able to raise the policy…
I personally know about 15-20 remarkable people who have applied for @osventuresllc fellowships. Imagine if, like @jposhaughnessy, the world's most interesting people were constantly beating a path to your door? The fact that nobody else seems to be doing this is remarkable.
@KAErdmann @profplum99 I don't think he's saying that it's bad, only that the standard unemployment statistics haven't reckoned with the structural change in the labour market brought about by the formalisation of marginal piece-work jobs thanks to the rise of the gig economy services.
@KAErdmann @profplum99 i.e. a lot of people who were counted as "unemployed" in the statistics used to be working cash-in-hand in the gray market, but would now work for a gig service and be counted as employed.
*FTSE 100 CLOSES AT RECORD HIGH, SURPASSING 2023 CLOSING PEAK This is the most Boomer Index in the world and I love it 🥹
@profplum99 Still here in Charleston waiting to see you 😎
@profplum99 @GlennLuk Thank you for giving me the much needed epiphany that I'm so goddamn lucky to have been using the mighty MTA on a weekly basis. Mind calculating for me the IRR of those tooth-gap platform fences they just installed?
@profplum99 LOVE our discussions on this topic. By 2030, 100 million workers will be running around w buckets of concrete making patches on everything.
I was 20. He was 53. He had two or three bronze stars. I don’t remember. A moment of clarity emerged from the chemo. In 10 days he’d be in Arlington. I said Dad knowing all you know now. The loss of friends. The loss to the nation. The loss of innocence. Years of painful chemo…
@profplum99 If only people would look things up before asking basic questions. It’s mind boggling people won’t spend 10 minutes looking for answers to their own questions, then spend decades being wrong by trying to get answers of all social media. Literally go to TF’s site, then look at…
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