@KeyWinvest @coloradotravis China’s very unproductive population is in decline so Beijing desperately subsidizes an area it thinks will give them a chance to catch up. AI is their hope to overcome their demographic time set to explode within the decade. The cost of micromanaging people will decline
@KeyWinvest @coloradotravis China is about 50% as productive as the US in terms of labor and capital allocation. Ghost cities are the perfect example of this. How many local corrupt officials just extort money for their own gain that goes toward unproductive projects.
@KeyWinvest @coloradotravis Moving from resource-driven growth based on cheap labor/ capital to high productivity innovation requires a high-quality education system that encourages creativity & supports breakthroughs in science & technology that can be applied back into the economy.
@KeyWinvest @coloradotravis That’s where things run into trouble as the hollowed out generation of the 1 child policy, mostly unmarried men, are stuck supporting their aging parents w/o help from any siblings or cousins. This will be a major drag on productivity starting in about 5 years.
@KeyWinvest @coloradotravis The largest geriatric population in the world is a huge cost that will drag production. That’s not a benefit. Geographically precarious as well with border disputes on every border that it’s must extend capital to defend. Plus the security costs of oppressing so many people