Covered the recent rebound in the U.K. Pound on #r4today with @FelicityHannah - back >1.22 GBPUSD. Some brief observations. The most reliable buy signal for GBP is when broker notes entitled “parity looms” or “£ is EM currency” hit inbox. Far better than any fundamental analysis!
I’m only being slightly flippant as trading positioning/ sentiment is a far better predictive variable than any rate spread, or macro trend analysis when backtestedX A lot of guff gets written and spoken about the Pound. There are some deeper trends though…
@shjfrench @FelicityHannah Wishful thinking if you think that the suppliers are going to pass on the benefit of strong pound anytime soon. They are enjoying the profits.
@shjfrench @FelicityHannah Would you say that there is any return of confidence, now that businesses undestand the lie of the land? The new restrictions settling in.