BiasDBoy @superpenguin17
Electrical Engineer, fat rock climber, and video gamer. Half-Filipino, he/him. https://t.co/26eUlOsxlk facebook.com/drliles Orlando, FL Joined October 2007-
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Getting rid of EMTALA, which the Supreme Court seems poised to do, means that if you show up to an ER bleeding to death from a car accident, the hospital can decide if you look rich enough to save. Pretty neat.
BREAKING: The Arizona House has voted to REPEAL the 1864 abortion ban. Three republicans joined democrats to kill it. It goes to the senate next.
There’s plenty of free-floating cope and despair at the thought of Trump returning to power, which materializes as angry refusal to believe the numbers. But there’s also a symbiosis with Dems-in-disarray clickbait merchants. It won’t end unless/until Biden claims a real lead.
@stacycay @lxeagle17 Also because Dems have overperformed vs polls in almost every election since then, and all the polls showing Trump ahead rely on very bizarre assumptions about the electorate.
@stacycay @lxeagle17 That *should* be an R+8 midterm, even with Roe fresh on people's minds. Not a "Dems pick up a Senate seat and are less than 10k votes from holding the trifecta despite collapsed D turnout"
@stacycay @lxeagle17 And the thing is that conditions were legitimately bad in 2022. Close to double digit YOY inflation (that has now cooled to 3-3.5%, most of it driven by housing prices), large-scale layoffs in tech, rising crime associated with "Defund" rhetoric, anger over COVID school closures
@lxeagle17 Like I’ve been watching election discussion for 20 years and every midterm the assumed trend is that the in party loses a lot of seats. If this ever didn’t happen, it meant something big in American politics had shifted. Then it happened and analysts are pretending it didn’t
Anyways, I think it's clear as to why people are angrier than usual about the polls, despite a very clean pattern emerging. The columns written at the moment have to explain Trump's polling strength. Doing that involves reconciling polls with the signals that seem good for Biden.
This also isn't helped by the fact that there is a group of pundits revolving around the data analysts who really want to jump on Democrats for either not being left-wing enough, or *too* left-wing. That's not the analysts' fault, but it contributes to why Democrats are mad.
To this point, it's clear why that talk exists. You can easily reconcile Biden's polling woes with data, and show why the special elections and primaries may provide a false signal (IMO, valid counters exist to this too). But that also pushes back on every point of Dem strength.
I'm explaining. I'm not saying I agree with all of those arguments. But it's clear to me that the reason this sentiment on Twitter exists is because there is a lot of talk focused around Biden's vulnerabilities in the data world, and not many about Trump's.
IMO a reason many Dems are upset is that it feels like Calvinball Dems do well in specials? Doesn't matter. Trump does poorly in primaries? Doesn't matter. Biden does poorly in primaries? Sign of weakness on the left. Biden polls badly? Awful. Polls already overshot him in 2020.
IMO a reason many Dems are upset is that it feels like Calvinball Dems do well in specials? Doesn't matter. Trump does poorly in primaries? Doesn't matter. Biden does poorly in primaries? Sign of weakness on the left. Biden polls badly? Awful. Polls already overshot him in 2020.
Why would I ever listen to a man that thinks he should have more say over my body than I do? NEXT
Good, he’s trying to take all their reproductive rights away.
Good, he’s trying to take all their reproductive rights away.
Welp there we go — Florida now trying to evade federal law’s recent changes to Title IX protections which were recently extended to gender identity and sexuality. The state GOP will stop at nothing to attack LGBTQ+ students.
Incredible message discipline from AOC, take an issue that divides the party and pivot to the opposition’s worst issue 👇
Incredible message discipline from AOC, take an issue that divides the party and pivot to the opposition’s worst issue 👇
I think this captures the psychology of Dem poll denialism (and resulting wonk antagonism) pretty well.
I think this captures the psychology of Dem poll denialism (and resulting wonk antagonism) pretty well.
@aimeer0729 I’m so sorry that happened to you ❤️🩹
@BurgartBioethix My first pregnancy discovered no fetal heart beat and I was sent home to wait over the weekend! I had a scheduled D & E and a month later began hemorrhaging at home in the shower. Had a 2nd life saving D & E in the ER. All women deserve this care.
Conservative justices showed no regard for Pregnant people’s Personhood Autonomy Right to care Physician’s duty to care - they’re so keen to protect doctors who don’t want to do their job, that they will hose any doctor who DOES want to provide standard medical care
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2K Followers 361 Following Is it better to out-monster the monster or to be quietly devoured? Charitable to honest folks. Direct.Getting rid of EMTALA, which the Supreme Court seems poised to do, means that if you show up to an ER bleeding to death from a car accident, the hospital can decide if you look rich enough to save. Pretty neat.
BREAKING: The Arizona House has voted to REPEAL the 1864 abortion ban. Three republicans joined democrats to kill it. It goes to the senate next.
There’s plenty of free-floating cope and despair at the thought of Trump returning to power, which materializes as angry refusal to believe the numbers. But there’s also a symbiosis with Dems-in-disarray clickbait merchants. It won’t end unless/until Biden claims a real lead.
@stacycay @lxeagle17 Also because Dems have overperformed vs polls in almost every election since then, and all the polls showing Trump ahead rely on very bizarre assumptions about the electorate.
@stacycay @lxeagle17 And the thing is that conditions were legitimately bad in 2022. Close to double digit YOY inflation (that has now cooled to 3-3.5%, most of it driven by housing prices), large-scale layoffs in tech, rising crime associated with "Defund" rhetoric, anger over COVID school closures
@lxeagle17 Like I’ve been watching election discussion for 20 years and every midterm the assumed trend is that the in party loses a lot of seats. If this ever didn’t happen, it meant something big in American politics had shifted. Then it happened and analysts are pretending it didn’t
Anyways, I think it's clear as to why people are angrier than usual about the polls, despite a very clean pattern emerging. The columns written at the moment have to explain Trump's polling strength. Doing that involves reconciling polls with the signals that seem good for Biden.
This also isn't helped by the fact that there is a group of pundits revolving around the data analysts who really want to jump on Democrats for either not being left-wing enough, or *too* left-wing. That's not the analysts' fault, but it contributes to why Democrats are mad.
To this point, it's clear why that talk exists. You can easily reconcile Biden's polling woes with data, and show why the special elections and primaries may provide a false signal (IMO, valid counters exist to this too). But that also pushes back on every point of Dem strength.
I'm explaining. I'm not saying I agree with all of those arguments. But it's clear to me that the reason this sentiment on Twitter exists is because there is a lot of talk focused around Biden's vulnerabilities in the data world, and not many about Trump's.
IMO a reason many Dems are upset is that it feels like Calvinball Dems do well in specials? Doesn't matter. Trump does poorly in primaries? Doesn't matter. Biden does poorly in primaries? Sign of weakness on the left. Biden polls badly? Awful. Polls already overshot him in 2020.
Poll denialists are going to drive themselves crazy like this! You don't need to dismiss the poll results that validate just because you want to deny other poll results. What are we doing here? x.com/admcrlsn/statu…
Why would I ever listen to a man that thinks he should have more say over my body than I do? NEXT
Good, he’s trying to take all their reproductive rights away.
MIKE JOHNSON is getting booed here at Columbia.
Welp there we go — Florida now trying to evade federal law’s recent changes to Title IX protections which were recently extended to gender identity and sexuality. The state GOP will stop at nothing to attack LGBTQ+ students.
Incredible message discipline from AOC, take an issue that divides the party and pivot to the opposition’s worst issue 👇
Good, he’s trying to take all their reproductive rights away.
I think this captures the psychology of Dem poll denialism (and resulting wonk antagonism) pretty well.
IMO a reason many Dems are upset is that it feels like Calvinball Dems do well in specials? Doesn't matter. Trump does poorly in primaries? Doesn't matter. Biden does poorly in primaries? Sign of weakness on the left. Biden polls badly? Awful. Polls already overshot him in 2020.
@aimeer0729 I’m so sorry that happened to you ❤️🩹
@BurgartBioethix My first pregnancy discovered no fetal heart beat and I was sent home to wait over the weekend! I had a scheduled D & E and a month later began hemorrhaging at home in the shower. Had a 2nd life saving D & E in the ER. All women deserve this care.
Conservative justices showed no regard for Pregnant people’s Personhood Autonomy Right to care Physician’s duty to care - they’re so keen to protect doctors who don’t want to do their job, that they will hose any doctor who DOES want to provide standard medical care
Main takeaways from the SCOTUS oral arguments today to let Idaho law gut EMTALA: Conservative justices were eager to make this about 🛑 Conscientious objection (already well protected) 🫄Fetal personhood 🏳️⚧️ denying Gender affirming care
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