Trevor Bedford @trvrb
Scientist @fredhutch, studying viruses, evolution and immunity. Collection of #COVID19 threads here: https://t.co/Yc4fun5rcp bedford.io Seattle, WA Joined December 2010-
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I was invited by @VandammeAm and other organizers of the #VEME2022 Virus Evolution and Molecular Epidemiology Workshop to present my perspective on applying pathogen phylogenetics for decision making. Slides from my talk are available here: bedford.io/talks/phylogen….
Dr. Angela Rasmussen @angie_rasmussen
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10K Followers 673 Following Evolutionary biologist; Prof at UBC; enthusiast of modelling and scientific discovery; @[email protected]Based on its rapid growth, particularly in Asia, we've designated the recombinant @PangoNetwork lineage XBB.1.16 & its descendants as clade 23B, labeled "23B (Omicron)" on Nextstrain trees. Like 23A, 23B is a descendant of the recombinant 22F (XBB). 1/9
Just a reminder that @WHO introduced the Greek letter system for variants May 31, 2021 and assigned the last one ("Omicron") November 26, 2021. 17 months and 1,100 subvariants and recombinants later, it's still all "Omicron".
I am really excited to share our new preprint tinyurl.com/zy4ueuxy on how we can use clusters of identical pathogen sequences to estimate the reproduction number R and the dispersion parameter k (that quantifies transmission heterogeneity)! with @trvrb
1/ Every person who rapidly shares viral genome sequence data should be celebrated & I'm proud to have helped @GISAID grow. I believe in the platform & its cause is noble. Most of all, I believe in the global community that is the true fabric of GISAID. But there's a problem.. 🧵
Fantastic news. Thanks to teams at @LSUHS @LSUHSEVTLab @MercerYou @GISAID @macroliter for this progress. Gov. @BrianKempGA should be proud of this growing capability saving lives across GA & sharing data w/ the world. @PPI_Insights @RockefellerFdn #EquitableGenomicSurveillance
These plots look at the total cumulative RSV hospitalization rate for the last 5 years. The dashed line shows the expected pre-covid trend. You can see that despite a significant 2021-2022 season, burden ran short of the trend, and it appears to have caught up now.
Huge congrats to @richardneher for receiving the 3rd Symposium for Emerging Viral Diseases @gcevd Award! So well deserved for tireless hard work during the pandemic and on @nextstrain! For his award lecture he will speak on adaptive evolution in #influenza & #SARSCoV2.
@TWenseleers @JasmineTaro1 @chrischirp @SaiyanBio But even if it's going down, it was still > to prevalence peaks of 2020/2021, so it is not a real "inter-outbreak" setting, it is still an active viral circulation (unlike "seasonal" viruses which really stop circulating between annual waves)
@trvrb I wish the US did population sampling as the UK does, but wastewater data suggest at least a qualitatively similar shift in: % of infections detected % of infections w/serious disease IFR.
@trvrb Waste water in Southern California is currently at about the same level as last summer’s peak.
@trvrb @OurWorldInData Thanks for all that information. We all missed you. :)
Read this 🧵 from @trvrb analyzing reported CoV-19 cases vs true prevalence. CoV-19 IFR now may be similar to flu thanks to vax + past infections (no thanks), but overall health burden of CoV-19 (PASC/long CoV) substantially higher than flu. Take steps to avoid CoV-19.
Currently, the US is reporting about 54k daily cases of COVID-19 (16 per 100k per capita) and the UK is reporting about 4k (6 per 100k). This seems comfortingly low compared to even this summer's BA.5 wave and let alone last winter's BA.1 wave. Figure from @OurWorldInData. 1/16
@trvrb Interestingly, Robert Koch Institut in Germany is currently estimating a cases to infections ratio of ca of 1:3 which seems unfathomably low esp. given the average PCR positivity rate of ~30%.
Today teams from @AfricaPGI & Pathogen Genomics Lab-INRB,DRC @labgenpath have started a 5-day capacity building training to sequence all Ebola virus samples from the ongoing EVD outbreak at the Uganda National Health Laboratory & Diagnostics Services (NHLDS/CPHL/UNHLS)@cphluganda
Thread on estimates for infections, given that circumstances (including testing) have changed substantially from earlier in the pandemic. This leads also to estimates for the current (average) infection fatality rate.
Currently, the US is reporting about 54k daily cases of COVID-19 (16 per 100k per capita) and the UK is reporting about 4k (6 per 100k). This seems comfortingly low compared to even this summer's BA.5 wave and let alone last winter's BA.1 wave. Figure from @OurWorldInData. 1/16
Great meeting the Bedford Lab in person while at ASTMH in Seattle. Thank you @christian_happi @drSikhulileMoyo @trvrb @cathrnbp @huddlej @nextstrain @ASTMH
An amazing week! learning from amazing team @trvrb lab @BryanTegomoh @christian_happi @CatherinePratt
An amazing week! learning from amazing team @trvrb lab @BryanTegomoh @christian_happi @CatherinePratt
For those of you that have asked me why I am convinced that cryptic lineages are coming from people, I can finally point to a pre-print with @dho and many fantastic collaborators in the UWisc and Wisc Public Health. medrxiv.org/cgi/content/sh…
XBB is a recombinant of BJ.1 (BA.2.10.1.1) & BM.1.1.1 (BA.2.75.3.1.1.1) - both descendants of BA.2. They share a lot of mutations, but also have quite a few that are unique to each. At some point, they both infected 1 person, & recombined to create XBB. 4/9
You might be seeing a lot about XBB these days, & we're in the process of adding it to @nextstrain, Nextclade, & CoVariants.org (as 22F). You might also be hearing it's a 'recombinant' - but what does that mean? Let's take a look. 1/9
@famulare_mike @LongDesertTrain theres form for veternary coronaviruses to switch between GI and resp tropism at the drop of a hat (eg TGEV vs PRCV being the same virus, or bovine coronavirus switching). It is strange though to have an eveloped viruses do so well in the gut...