Yaakov Cantor @yconsor
Meteorologist focused on commodities/weather risk. Originally from Long Island, NY youtube.com/user/israelwea… Jerusalem area, Israel Joined February 2009-
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Latest 45 Day modeling from ECMWF takes us into the start of Atlantic hurricane season! Clear signals in the precip anomalies for: +IOD +Atlantic Nino Low precip driven by cooling in the equatorial E Pac as we-> likely La Nina by peak season US looks dry out West + Southeast
@AndyHazelton And it's much more than skin-deep!
Rapid warmup of the Atlantic MDR ongoing, thanks to a reduction in trade winds, after a SAL outbreak last week briefly cooled things. The actual SST graph looks like "runaway warming" when you add in the seasonal warmup this time of year. Wild to see the MDR already at 27C.
With about 6 weeks to go to the hurricane season, the 2024 Main Development Region SSTs - based on 1982-2023 SST averages - are more akin to 8 weeks *into* the hurricane season!
Chilly morning ahead across Europe with widespread freezes on April 23. Even with the existential crisis of climate change, it still gets really cold during the last week of April.
The large #PolarVortex disruption from early March is still influencing our weather and will get an assist from the Final Warming next week (positive PCHs in the stratosphere). This may result in a long lasting Greenland blocking event that the models predict will last into May.
One thing that limited 2020 & 2005 was the warmth near CAN. This was a big issue in 20 preventing most strong storms until Oct. In 05 it was less of an issue since the MDR was record warm at the time but it still limited CV activity. This is not expected to be an issue this year.
The Niño 1+2 Index in the far eastern Pacific recently dipped to -0.8˚C 📉 Sub-surface ocean waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific are *4-6˚C below average* — oceanic Kelvin Wave activity and periodic trade wind enhancements should see this cold pool move toward the ocean…
@MikeFischerWx @MiamiRosenstiel The anomaly is really striking right now!
Forecasting a crazy hurricane season makes a lot of sense. People that know me know I sell the hype. This year, the hype is warranted.
Forecasting a crazy hurricane season makes a lot of sense. People that know me know I sell the hype. This year, the hype is warranted.
Join me and @NWSNHC Director Dr. Michael Brennan tomorrow evening at 7 PM ET/6P CT for an hour-long conversation ahead of the 2024 Hurricane Season. We'll be discussing the latest hurricane headlines, new research out of NHC, and your questions. Register below @amswxband 👇
The April 8th eclipse is two weeks behind us, but we have put together a final recap of pictures, satellite imagery, weather impacts caused by the eclipse, and even radar data of birds roosting/taking flight during/after the eclipse! View the recap here: arcg.is/1bO1ma
With that being said, if the MJO ends up sticking in phases 2-5 (IO to Maritime Continent), we know that these are favoured for tornadoes and stronger ones (Tippet 2018). Larger tornado events and those which have strong/violent ones tend to have setups with an IO MJO. 6/
The MJO heading into May is a wildcard. As it stands right now, it's weak other than a quasi-stationary wave over Africa/IO. We are reaching the part of the year in which regional monsoon processes begin to ramp up and play a part in how global circulations react long term. 5/
For these years (minus 1878/1889 since they're not in NCEI), we see that a pattern that favours warmth east of the Mississippi with a wet pattern east of the Rockies with an emphasis across the Plains and Midwest. 3/
Developed some analogs for this May based off of a few factors. In the end, the general pattern was that of troughing across the Rocky Mountains with a low amplitude ridge near the Appalachian Mountains. 1/
@TwisterKidMedia Yeah it's pretty apparent where the discrepancies in week 2 are coming from imho. West Pacific convection in early-mid May usually yields +PNA/western ridging & there's almost certainly way too much of it on the GEFS. These big long range West Pac CCKWs/MJOs on the GEFS rarely…
The GEFS suite is likely getting way too excited (as usual) with a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCkW) that enters the West Pacific later in week 2, which will have downstream effects on the wave pattern over N America early-mid May. The GEFS’s overzealous depiction of this…
A Dangerous Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak is shaping up for the Plains-Midwest late this week into weekend. My GFS severe weather tool is showing widespread 55+ values - The big day is Sunday April 28th. This is an objective measure of risk - it's not hyping an event. It's data.
Not sure which is more shocking...that Ohio leads the country in tornado reports or @NWSNashville has yet to issue a tornado warning this year? #Tornado
Tomer Burg @burgwx
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Eric Webb @webberweather
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@AndyHazelton Dryer and hotter than last year too I suspect.... I think you won't be seeing much in the way of negative SST anomalies in the NE Gulf or Bahamas as we get into June. Probably not good news for Florida coral reef
SPC will be following their normal outlook protocol, slowly increasing the severe threat levels each day as the projected outbreak later this week-weekend rolls closer to verification.
@AndyHazelton And it's much more than skin-deep!
@cricket_71 You should, but a lot of people either don't or just believe that since they've been lucky for a number of active seasons that that will continue. It might! But I wouldn't take that chance.
And I'll add further, it's not hype at all. These forecasts are all rooted in raw, pure data, all of which is pointing in basically one direction this year. This is why we continue telling people to be prepared this year.
If this verifies, this is essentially 2020 2.0 but without 2020's main issue. Warm water in the subtopics and near Canada caused a rising cell resulting in a Hadley cell stretch keeping non Carib storms weak and the strong storms we did get were too short lived to grind ACE.
Join me and @NWSNHC Director Dr. Michael Brennan tomorrow evening at 7 PM ET/6P CT for an hour-long conversation ahead of the 2024 Hurricane Season. We'll be discussing the latest hurricane headlines, new research out of NHC, and your questions. Register below @amswxband 👇
Don't forget to join our webinar tomorrow featuring @mbrennanwx and @MichaelRLowry to prepare for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season and learn about recent social media chatter on creating a Category 6. Interested in our discussion? Register now: bit.ly/3VKFh74
Waterfalls in the Great Smoky Mountains. It doesn’t get much better than this!
Prediction of storm reports by next weekend. This was made from an ensemble of highly sophisticated and accurate weather models, and definitely not my jaded self just drawing on a map.
All in all, things can and will change. Will we get exactly what is shown above? Most likely not but based on previous analogs with somewhat similar climate forcing, this would be my best guess at how next month may play out. 8/8
@TwisterKidMedia Yeah it's pretty apparent where the discrepancies in week 2 are coming from imho. West Pacific convection in early-mid May usually yields +PNA/western ridging & there's almost certainly way too much of it on the GEFS. These big long range West Pac CCKWs/MJOs on the GEFS rarely…
More people on here are complaining about wxtwitter posting deterministic models than the amount of people actually posting them.
@tbrite89 I have 3 papers with list of cities impacted one for La Nina busy one for Neutral loaded had to turn paper over to continue and Elnino half the page empty your stats are accurate.
USA HURRICANE STRIKE CLIMATOLOGY (1900-2023): (Thread 2/) In this subsection, we will further delineate the statistical figures, based upon the strength of each ENSO phase, and look for any identifiable trends in the data. LA NINA: Weak (-0.5 to -0.9) 18 years: 37 HU…
I am reposting this amended thread to account for recently discovering that 1908 was actually a weak La Niña #hurricane season as opposed to a cool Neutral one, as I had used to tabulate the respective figures originally.
@AndyHazelton Jacksonville, FL Newport, RI Virginia Beach, VA Yokosuka, Japan Rockville Center, NY Key West, FL Exeter, NH Cambridge, MA Berkeley, CA Fort Collins, CO Plainsboro, NJ Miami, FL
Can’t wait to travel the country and give lectures on my meteorology experiences one day. It’ll be called the Errors Tour.
@EricBlake12 @catinsight That 1996 paper I mentioned coined the term "main development region", so I'd take their region as the definition of it. The Caribbean is a part of it.
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