cr_Mich0.5 @5Mich0
first coffee, then crypto Joined September 2021-
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TL;DR for people who don't know cryptography: Every Bitcoin wallet has a public key and a private key. Your private key lets you spend your BTC, so it's known only to you. Your public key is used for receiving btc. BTC relies on elliptic-curve cryptography to protect private keys. Public key can be visible when transacting, because with today's math, deriving private key from public key is effectively impossible. Drake is worried AI could discover a mathematical shortcut that changes that. If that happens, anyone whose public key is already exposed (early btc transactions exposed it) could have their coins stolen. That's why he's telling people to move funds to fresh addresses whose public keys are still hidden, and rotate addresses after spending. Interestingly, most of Satoshi's BTC already has its public keys exposed, so it will be the first target for the attack :)
Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash. Holders, starting with large
$NEAR I think is mostly dependent on bitcoin (as everything else is). Break to the upside and this was the low If we break below 83k though then NEAR probably goes to $4 or lower No position now but currently watching very closely
$PUMP still looking very strong last few days, this is a key area. I always thought that pump was a key indicator for how the rest of the market would do given it led previously and also pulled back / consolidated. if it has a strong second leg here, I think that's very fruitful for everything else
How do you watch perps vs. spot behavior? What platforms do you use? Why is it beneficial to watch this? What does it mean? Get asked this under every tweet so please just bookmark this long tweet. This is probably the best detailed explanation of this you will find on here with nuances. Here's the overarching answer. If we break it down, what I like to keep an eye on is the following: > aggressive perps > aggressive spot > passive spot there are many platforms to gauge this behavior. Just remember that there's a lot of fragmentation and also inaccurate ways of reading this because it can tend to get noisy. Your read will be based on assumptions as well as a lot of screen time (when x + y happens it leads to z happening, which points to ...) Outlier behavior So when we parse these participants out remember there is hedging behavior, there is behavior that you will see where someone might suppress the spot side to get their own perps positioning filled etc. Glazing over this to point out that this isn't just as straight forward as meets the eyes at first. But over time your assumed read will improve. Why Spots vs. Perps I want you to think of perps positioning as the "weaker" hand because you can lever up tremendously and have your liquidation 0.1% away from your entry (think exaggerated case) which means this positioning is liable to enter, exit and get vaporized fast when price isn't carrying in the desired direciton. Now you throw in an understanding of crowded positioning in the same area and it gives you the exact spot where if positioning is pressed it will unwind with haste. Think of spot behavior as the whale which has the little fish that stick to its underside for the ride (the perps positioning). In other words, the real strength or weakness of a move is ultimately determined by spot follow-through (or lack there of) understood? let's move on to what you're actually reading this for and probably skipped the rest to read. There are many platforms to do this but here is one way I quickly scan this behavior: 1. Coinalyze You can go on coinalyze for aggressive spot and perps behavior - both aggregated as well as parsing out exchanges (binance, cb etc.) i.e. you can watch what both aggressive perps and aggressive spot are doing through the move as well as watching what is happening on individual exchanges. Do this on LTF (I typically do not go above 5-15 mins here). 2. MMT For passive spot, you can go to MMT and watch the spot orderbook skew which shows you how fat the supply/demand is on 2.5% and 5% depth. The indicators are OB depth and OB pressure bands as shown in image. You can go to settings and change the exchanges as well as looking at spot vs. perps. Think of this as a "wall" or a "cushion" when approaching from below or above. Also, at the risk of oversimplifying I want you to visualize the aggressive positioning as "canonballs" when price is approaching a skewed book i.e. aggression can eat away at this skew if it is adequate enough or fall short. two scenarios combined with context - BTC is ranging and is trading towards range high for the 3rd time. Short squeeze takes out the range high into a stacked passive spot book skewed towards the ask side and aggressive perps start buying while aggressive spot starts selling. More likely than not this will revert. BTC is pulling back into an OB that is skewed towards the buy side on passive spot. However aggressive perps continue to long a 1 min grind down and aggressive spot continues to sell unwinding that positioning into new lows. Good chance this passive wall will get eaten through unless this behavior stabilizes. Keep an eye on the extent of the passive ob skew as well. When you combine this with areas of confluence the pieces of the puzzle will start to come together. ok enough yap. hope this helps.
The green boxes should provide triggers. The weekly looks PRONOMINAL. Don't get shaken out by this dip. Accumulation range. bitcoin:native
If hyperliquid:native drops below $90 you got to buy that shit up. This market looks as though it’s going to rip through $100 convincingly without any issues at all. It won’t even be a thing and we will just all accept it as a 3 figure coin. It may not even get a $2 dip.
The Total Altcoin Market cap has moved up into its next major resistance. This is the level that marked the October 10th flush wick and consolidation that followed. That is the next level to break for further continuation.
The Total Altcoin Market Cap did close its weekly candle with a new highest close since January. This also marks a new higher high and a proper bullish market structure break. If it can maintain this area, the October 10th wick is a good level to target. It is what held as
if I was a $Near bull, I would like to see a consolidation here , it shouldn't trade below the red line, ideally not even come close
$BTC has now tested our key supply zone above, just like $ETH I suspect we are going to form a LTF range here before a deeper push into the 75-79k zone for now. Can probably fade whichever side of this local range we take first but ideally we get a little PO3 setup to the local highs before a deeper pullback.
$BTC has taken the highs into 82k+, first key local supply zone sits a bit higher at 86-90k. This is similar to the 2800-3000 zone on $ETH from my last post (here: x.com/CredibleCrypto…).
nice flip, seems like we gonna send this over the weekend
$ENA is still 1 of the better looking coins overall. I don't see what can stop this one after they bought out all private investors. Higher
Pretty sure $sol outperforms $eth again over the next few months
$sol still taking most DEX volume. So will keep betting on it performing well this cycle. Looking at bidding around $100 and will TP above $150
I think $SOL and $HYPE will be the most "safe" outperformers It's not a 100x But they will be faster than BTC and ETH, imo.
$BTC Would be interested in longs if we get something like this. Demand provides the local bounce, then stop out obvious demand buyers with a sweep, then back towards the highs. Good confluence with 0.618 of current leg as well. Let's see!
Tradermayns shares a trading setup for $NTDO.NE "You don’t have it quite yet, but you have the weekly structure break there, which I like. And if it’s able to break this trend line here, then I do think that this is actually an interesting-looking trade." Feat. @Tradermayne
The last big multiweek rally that we had for most altcoins was in April-June 2025. More charts below: Where was bitcoin at? $BTC bottomed from the 2024 highs around early April 2025 and started its run from 75k-125k. The 1.5 months had a 50% move and this is when alts went
/ ENA Started scaling in. This is the type of macro bottom chart you want to focus on. Early, a lot of upside, and clear invalidation.
/ ENA Got my eyes on $ENA. Revenue switch turned on, and it sits beautifully in its stage 3 zone. Want either lower in this zone or a clear flip of the range low.
The first car to park on the trailer wins , I’ve never been so invested in a sport like this
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