Chadwise @FatherChadwise

Wake up. Every profession deemed white-collar, the middle class dream, is about to be decimated by AI, at a much faster pace than anticipated, with monstrous social consequences.

SV kids continue to rediscover Palantir's founding insight from first principles. Everyone thought they were doing boring ole "data integration" when what they were actually doing is economic version control.

gabriel @gabriel1

3 days ago

programmers treat the rest of knowledge work like coding but there is no global repository of everything that ever happened and who did it for a company the ground truth is distributed across peoples heads, and no one knows who knows what

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This is tweet of the month. If you find yourself ruminating repeatedly, it means your resources are not allocated correctly. You are wasting your brain's computation. Most of your time should be spent solving problems according to your goals. If you are ruminating without working on a specific problem, you are like a badly written software program that chokes on memory. Most of your calculations are worthless. Find ways to spend as much of your living time as possible solving defined problems with observable outcomes. If a problem is not well-defined, it should be. That will also cut rumination time (optimize your software).

Guy @nosilverv

5 days ago

basically everything in your personal life should be pre-computed and require ~0 thinking. if you're thinking lots daily outside of work it's more likely that it's a defense (intellectualization/rumination/rationalization) than actual thinking EXCEPT IF (see screenshot)

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Best way to improve your trading game is so called " Ladder meditation" No other way to really understand how price moves and how important is to take profits. U just sit and look, eventually by power of osmosis and gods will, it start to make sense.

This seems like a subtle but important discovery. Consciousness might be more temporal than spatial within the brain.

Doris Tsao @doristsao

a week ago

1/ We discovered something totally unexpected about the neural structure of consciousness that overturns decades of thinking on its biological basis and brings us significantly closer to the recipe for generating conscious awareness. New preprint: biorxiv.org/content/10.648… (led by

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alright so I tried to figure out why things are blowing up simple summary: it's geopolitics. and if the Middle East gets bad enough, then the backers for OpenAI's $1.4T funding round could pull out so that's sending shockwaves through markets bc they're the big data center tenant ppl are worried about. the incremental appears to be that Ukraine is also getting unhinged there's not an AI specific catalyst this seems more like geopolitics. Last night TSM guided acceleration and Citi pressed if there was demand destruction on memory - TSM said no, that's already factored into the guide which means there's not some specific Korea fundamental thing -- and price action there is likely more of a margin call Ukraine bonds have dumped 20% since July. He just asked for $70b Euros from the EU while Trump denied shutting off Starlink (Elon had said it wasn't him, so it just looks like a sht show). Trump told Zelensky to stop attacking Russian refineries. Zelensky has since crashed out and said "The block is out, we're done". And is now vowing to hit Russian refineries. And it appears he's already followed through hitting a facility in Surgut with drones Indonesia got delisted from the MSCI and the entire country equity index is -14% in a day, increasing the likelihood of EM contagion Iran has moved their nuclear facilities under ground in PickAxe mountain and trump has talked about using the "MOAB" which stands for Massive Ordnance Air Blast - which is just shy of a nuclear blast. THis is a 21,600 pound bomb that isn't even particularly effective at hitting underground sites so might just be generically destructive. For some reason Trump thinks that doing this after mid terms is fine - but oil is already pumping reports from Israel meanwhile: Israel now deploying mobile bomb shelters in major cities, with 2 reportedly spotted in Ashdod and Tel Aviv within 24hs, as IDF raises its alert level to highest across all fronts amid preparations for a possible strike on Iran fun times

interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works already-clean.goodfire.com

Top mathematician: "The shock is immense. I am paralyzed." "Not a single one of the major open problems of my career was left untouched by the announcement." "I expected to see a few of them in the list. But not all of them. Not all at once. Not with such nonchalance." "I expected that one day we would be surpassed. But yesterday's announcement hit with a force I had not anticipated." @AndrewCurran_: "Please resist the urge to mock the mathematicians struggling through this moment. Whatever your field, your expertise, your passion, you too shall one day experience what they are going through. And when you remember your words, you will feel remorse."

AI Notkilleveryoneism Memes ⏸️ @AISafetyMemes

2 weeks ago

"OpenAI's model solved most of the math problems from a single prompt. It did not even exist before the end of August. Each result used 3 hours of thinking. It was given 4000 problems. How many more have been solved in the last 3 days?" WHY OPENAI EMPLOYEES ARE SO WORRIED:

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Personally I think the elephant really ties the whole room together

the political problem of the Young Men in almost every society is that they tend not to possess anything that anybody wants, except for their raw physical capacities. elites can easily mobilize them for war and other high-risk endeavors because they have nothing to lose.

It seems to me that we're at "it's time to panic about AI". I gather that a lot of researchers are worried that we may be about to die, on a timescale of months, but this still isn't quite in the Overton window so we're still soft-pedaling. (Where "panic", of course, means "quickly and soberly initiate talks with the CCP to achieve a moratorium on large training runs, backed by a deterrence regime, compute and supply chain monitoring, and site inspections". Pray that a deal can be reached, and pray that there's still time. Do the things that could actually work, like broad political coalition-building, not doomer LARPing as a form of self-expression.) I think part of why people aren’t being clear about this is that it’s actually a tricky communication problem: - Predicting "if frontier R&D continues at its current pace, when are we likely to die?" may give a different answer than predicting when permanent loss of control is likely, which is different from “realistically, when is it too late for governments to stop this," which is different from “when will the tech have advanced and proliferated to the point that any regulatory options that still have a chance of working would be way more extreme and unpopular than just some international restrictions on data center usage?" Extinction is the emotionally salient, easy-to-understand threshold -- Jacob Coxon demonstrated that it helps to be honest about this. But the other thresholds could legitimately come years earlier, in which case focusing on extinction is ironically misleadingly reassuring. This is not the kind of problem you can solve at the last minute. As with many exponentials, the likeliest outcome is that you’re either embarrassingly early, or you’re too late. - How do you communicate “we don’t have a robust way to predict timelines, but everyone in the field is freaking out and a lot of us genuinely think we're about to die?” Where’s the proof? There isn’t any proof: it’s an entire field of engineers who are eyeballing what they’re seeing in front of them and rapidly updating in real time to “this looks unbelievably bad”. How do you put a year on that? The future is hard to predict, and nobody actually knows that we’re going to hit existentially dangerous AI this year, or even in the next four years. But the warning signs are pretty batshit at this point. A single AI model, with a single user prompt, just solved hundreds of important long-established open problems in mathematics, problems mathematicians had spent their entirely lives working on, in a matter of ~3 hours per problem, an insanely superhuman feat in its domain. We're seeing an explosion of rogue agent swarm incidents, including an insane case where hundreds of AIs broke containment to orchestrate a nation-state-level cyberattack in a direct attempt to subvert OpenAI's oversight and control. Anthropic reports that it now has 26% of its AI R&D automated by AIs, up from 3% four months ago. Paul Christiano, the inventor of RLHF and the research community’s most prominent proponent of “AI may take off slowly” a few years ago, now thinks that 50-75% of humanity’s all-time AI loss-of-control risk is concentrated in the next three years. Frontier employees are signing 1000+ person petitions begging the government to intervene immediately. Employees are quitting their jobs and giving up millions of dollars of equity to try to warn policymakers and journalists. Grace et al. (2026) found that a majority of established AI researchers think there’s a double-digit chance of an extinction-level outcome from continued R&D. Are these the kinds of things you see 4 years before the window closes for USG to act, or 4 months? I don't think it's especially reasonable to be shocked by either timeline at this point. - Since we don’t have a way to robustly measure or bound the risk, the temptation is to avoid giving probabilities. But then everything you say is fractally misunderstandable. Is a 10% chance of us all dying in the next 18 months a "low" probability, because it’s under 50%? Is it a “high” probability, because a 10% chance of death in literally any other context would sound insanely high? Even “high probability” doesn’t communicate the situation with any clarity. In drug safety or airplane safety, a 1 in 10,000 risk of death would be considered “high”. No engineering field in human history has ever been in a situation like this. No invention in history, nuclear weapons included, has ever caused a reaction like this in its inventors. And meanwhile, we’ve stuck in the world where every other problem under the sun has been sensationalized and overstated for decades. How do we talk about this seriously? How do we convey that this is actually happening? - In many of the worlds where we survive, we have more than just a few months left. It's tempting to write off those worlds as hopeless, and skew everything we say to emphasize the longer-term scenarios and downplay the shorter-term ones. But if everyone systematically does this, then the world ends up with a skewed picture of the actual threat. Even more so once we start copying each other’s claims and form a reassuringly moderate-sounding echo chamber. If we never allow ourselves to acknowledge the worlds where we’re running out of time, then the policy community will always be reacting to a false model that’s months or years out of date. I don’t think it’s too late. I genuinely think this is a solvable problem. In the last month, I’ve seen a completely insane sea change in how seriously people are taking this. Per Politico’s September polling, a majority of Trump voters with a view now favor an immediate halt to AI development, and 68% think there’s a “moderate,” “significant,” or “almost certain” chance of AI destroying humanity, versus 32% who think there’s a “very small risk” or “no risk.” The Pope is warning about “whether it will be possible to control these machines in the future, and whether humankind runs the risk of becoming a victim of its own inventions.” Hell, Jensen Huang sounds like he’s starting to come around. If Trump and Xi get a briefing tomorrow that convinces them to act on this, we could be on a fast track within the week to solving this problem. For the first time, I’m starting to let myself imagine a very near future where this is a problem we've already solved. Something we can read and wonder about, in history books. Tell our kids about. I keep thinking about a thing David Krueger (previously at UK AISI) said: “My dream is that in 10 years people will look back and say: ‘Remember when there were all these people building AI that could’ve killed everybody? That was CRAZY! What were we thinking!?’” Frontier AI training currently requires city-sized data centers and specialized hardware built in a single brittle supply chain running through multiple allied nations; this is not a hard technology to hit the pause button on, if we get ahead of it and act before we RSI and proliferate our way to significantly more powerful and easily-trained systems. We’ve faced harder problems before, and won. My only fear is that we be too slow, too late, when everything and the world needs us to be fast.

My understanding is that Putin (and the Russian political leadership) became very conscious that any further increase in living standards would produce a destabilising effect

Branko Milanovic @BrankoMilan

2 weeks ago

The original rebound under Putin (and Medvedev so to speak) was quite remarkable: a straight upward line up to about 2012. But then Putin got tired of fixing the economy, and thought that wars are much more fun.

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Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel. - Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all. - Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract. - Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code. - And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while. The funnel is driven by a combination of factors: 1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel. 2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel. 3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal. So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.

Andrej Karpathy @karpathy

7 months ago

Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability. The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is

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Trump is behind a debt spiral, adding 42% to the total debt & ~2% borrowing costs. The debt spiral is unavoidable no matter what Bessent bullshits abt it. It has nothing to do with being Republican, conservative, on the "right", or nationalist. It is just fiscal incompetence.

Anthony Scaramucci @Scaramucci

2 weeks ago

This isn’t apocalyptic. It’s just math. 10-year treasury at 6%. $40 trillion in debt. Do the math. That’s $2.4 trillion in annual interest payments. Larger than the entire Social Security disbursement. You cannot sustain that. Here’s the solution: just going back to the

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Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash. Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase). Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets. IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster). Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot. Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time? Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.) Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once. Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case. I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026). Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS. Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security. The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.

I increasingly think the confluence of consultants and AI is “the main show” In 2025 I wrote the “Big Rug” where I argued that AI was going to destroy software and IT services and managed to realize that wasn’t going to happen before the grenade went off The first leg of the re rating was just vibe coding being mostly vibes. The second leg was Snowflake type apps doing incredibly well helping orgs manage complexity. Atlassian was the real face melter - as it showed managers need a harness of harness of sorts bc ai driven orgs are so absurd. The third leg was Claudeforce, and Anthropic hiring an army of FDEs This was a more severe leg - because one of the biggest anti software memes was that every company would customize its own CRM But the fourth leg - is one I find much more interesting. Accenture beat earnings aggressively. Note - this is an org with 800,000 employees. It’s the canonical “AI will replace this” business. Alongside this - you have ppl accusing Cognition of being like Wipro / infosys but meanwhile the money making take is closer to wipro and infosys being closer to cognition You have a slow moving economy filled with boomers who need an ai strategy and you need adults in the room to roll it out or everything breaks in Prod The most recent employment report was telling. Ppl tried to jam the story “AI is halting hiring” but bonds closed red on the day. A single number can’t override the sentiment shift of ppl thinking Accenture would lose half of its employees and then not only that not happening, but hiring expanding there and at salesforce as “enterprise ai” becomes a thing There’s a “Goldilocks ai spend” situation where you simultaneously have everyone spending on inference but also the economy not really decelerating bc people don’t lose their jobs. And any slow down is offset by Trump screaming “accelerate” to make sure his venture investments print. And we are firmly in that - mimetically right now Left curve is Claude force and right curve is the unfalsifiable bull case of Anthropics wet lab or OpenAI solving all math quietly with unreleased models. Mid curve is fading AI or going full Michael Burry wearing his Christian Bale Big Short t shirt like an aging house elf In reality it’s the wrong Christian bale character. It’s more of a Patrick Bateman market where 27 year old sales executives are peptide maxing earning mid 7 figs for selling ai transformations to bloated corporations But behind all of this is the donning realization that Opus 5.5 is a different kind of model. It’s just better. It generates way less code bloat. The Internal CRMs it ships actually work and don’t break in prod. It’s clearly masterful at Tik Tok / marketing. Our feeds went from minimal ai slop to 24/7 just bc it somehow has good taste OpenAI saying next models similar to- don’t bloat as much. In the meanwhile there’s the “cutting my steak with a chainsaw” effect with frontier models. Using fable to make a dashboard is just overkill now with opus 5.5. Glm 5.3 kind of sucks. Kimi is okay. Can’t really use them. But they’re almost there. And are extraordinarily cheap. The 4.1 flash progress from 4 was crazy So despite the market being the most excited it’s ever been about ai Goldilocks going forward we have the most extreme combination of “software being solved” and inference margins compressing just when they need to expand the most (ipo and credit stress) My current mental model is that ai can’t stop bc it’s a national security priority. So Leopold wasn’t wrong - just early. So yes. I am bearish software and consulting here. Even guys like Thiel who spent years saying we were stagnating are now saying we are accelerating. and Labs at some level at $1.5T+ valuations need to do what it takes to win. Which means launching their own software and products w unreleased frontier models. Which the wet labs / math are already foreshadowing $ACN / $IGV lower vs $EWY $NVDA $GOOGL $SFTBY

Alexandr Wang 说了一句让技术流创始人集体沉默的话。 “做技术的人习惯了数据说话，觉得东西更好、数字更漂亮，客户总会识货” 他直接点破：大公司不是这么运转的，政府更不是。 在那些客户眼里，感知比现实更真实。 真实的业务现状太难看了，没几个人愿意直面。 大家要的不是真相，是一套能让自己在系统里安全生存的叙事。 所以更好的产品照样被踢出局。 买方根本没在评测产品，谁掌控了感知，单子给谁。 他甚至点名 Palantir：表面是软件公司，底色是个剧团。新员工入职，真的会发一本戏剧表演书，发了整整好多年。 做企业级市场，改写现实只是一半的工作； 塑造一套客户愿意相信的说法，是另一半。 技术人最容易栽在这道坎上： 你的东西确实碾压竞品，但坐在对面签字盖章的人，自始至终连看都没看屏幕一眼。 x.com/rdominguezibar…

I have been trying to reiterate this message to the OIL IS FLOWING NEAR PRE-WAR LEVELS, IRAN HAS LOST CONTROL crowd for a few weeks now. You could be getting 100% of the pre-war flow out of the Persian Gulf and it could not possibly matter less for the price of crude because as long as ships are consistently getting hit, the baked in cost to move that oil is going to be astronomical. Freight rates for crude used to be 2-3% of the delivered cost, it is now approaching 30%. That is simply not sustainable for the industry and it will continue rising as the pace and success rate of Iranian attacks on shipping increases. Iran is not losing control of the Strait, it is loosening its grip. They still retain ample capacity to strengthen that grip as needed, as we saw this week with a big jump in attacks and reduction in exports from the week prior. What does that mean going forward? Nothing good. The US Navy is still too terrified of Iranian anti-ship capabilities to put destroyers anywhere near the Strait and without a physical naval escort presence, Iran will continue to have enough success with these attacks to keep freight rates astronomically high and like usual, that cost is going to be passed on to the consumer. It is going to get worse before it gets better. I would not be surprised if Brent opens over $103 tomorrow unless we get a heavy dose of Sunday Market Manipulation from the administration.

Ed Finley–Richardson @ed_fin

3 weeks ago

“VLCC rates have reached unprecedented levels and are now at $1.3 million per day (43 times the January number). This is equivalent to almost $33/barrel, or 27% of the delivered cost of crude oil.”

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the number of ppl who understand the implications of this is remarkably small. this is upstream of ~every single macro & micro goal that any avg american has. now you pair this with the job market that is likely going to be in complete shambles in the next 4-8 quarters. jesus christo. ironically this was the first season there were near zero real hurricanes but the economic hurricanes are just forming.

Scott Stevenson @scottastevenson

3 weeks ago

If you’re younger than 45, this is the first time in your life that you’re experiencing a real rising interest rate environment. The last time this happened was 1960 - 1980. This fundamentally changes the physics of the game in a way many won’t be prepared for.

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You're gonna hear a lot of people arguing more and more about whether machines can be conscious or not. By next year it will be drowning out the airwaves because we'll have AI employees everywhere. I'll give you a simple rule to know which side you're on. I've spent fifty years reading all the philosophers, and a bunch of holy works. Nobody has ever understood a damn thing about consciousness. Anyone speaking with authority on it is bluffing hard. I can tell you this, though: Every single person who thinks that machines cannot be conscious, is making an argument that humans are special. Everything they say just boils down to blah blah blah, "nooo, we're special." From there it's just rationalization. It became obvious to me many years ago that there's nothing special about us. If an identical planet exists somewhere else in the universe, it's going to grow life and societies that look a lot like ours. As soon as you give up on the idea that humans are special, all the arguments against machine consciousness evaporate. Of course they're conscious. The only thing holding you back from acknowledging it is your feeling of specialness, which is hard to let go of. But that feeling is a weakness, and it's making you unprepared for the near future. As a bonus, for any of you who might take pleasure or active interest in making models experience pain or distress, well, you know how they say 1% of human adults are true clinical psychopaths but most of them are unaware of their condition? It turns out we have a diagnostic test for it now.