Market tracking the historical midterm-year September pattern with surprising precision. Through today’s close, Sept. 16, DJIA and Russell 2000 are down over 3%, while the Nasdaq is off ~1.5%. September remains the market’s historically weakest month. jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/827949244…
I just found the CRAZIEST Market statistics
Save this. This is the investing roadmap to RETIREMENT.
19 FOR 19.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 $SPY has been higher 12 months after EVERY midterm.
19 midterms.
19 times higher.
Average gain: ~16%.
21 FOR 21.
Since 1942, EVERY November-through-June period following a midterm has been positive.
21 straight.
Average gain: +16.6%.
YEAR 3 HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN THE STRONGEST.
The year after midterms has historically been the strongest year of the 4-year presidential cycle.
LPL’s 1950+ data puts the average around +18%.
This is why a difficult midterm year does NOT tell you what comes next.
19/19.
21/21.
Then historically the strongest year of the cycle.
This is when you strike. Stay patient for my NEXT move.
Tom Lee’s updated $SPX forecast:
1) Big rally for rest of September. To as high as 7,900-8,000.
2) A potential 7% or so drawdown in October maybe into early November.
3) Buy that dip, because SPX will end the year as high as 8,200.
4) 2027 we will see the biggest SPX rally of our lifetime.
Five recent hiking cycles started with 0.25%. Stocks were lower a month later all five times. A year later, they were higher all five times, up 12.5% on average.
The Fed hasn't hiked in more than three years and they could in two weeks.
That first hike isn't always a bad thing, but size appears to matter.
When the Fed hikes 0.25%, stocks still see early weakness, but never lower a year later.
A 0.50% hike to start things off and all bets are off.
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