墨水心 @JordanCDF
记录日常思绪，平和生活，坚持跑步，偶尔喝点小酒🍻。 只分享所爱，不求关注数。 婉拒互关 婉拒互关 婉拒互关 婉拒互关 婉拒互关 婉拒互关 婉拒互关 婉拒互关 婉拒互关 婉拒互关 婉拒互关 婉拒互关 Joined December 2011-
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PRE-IPO ACCESS IS COMING ONCHAIN. Kalshi. Trade the future. Still private. Next Quote token on Flap: 🎯 KLSH (KALSHI) Powered by @Paimon_Finance, issuer behind Binance Wallet’s first Pre-Access token on PancakeSwap. Access top-tier assets earlier, before they reach public markets. Before IPO. Onchain first. The next market starts on Flap.sh 🦋
BTC昨夜跟随风险资产走弱，一度跌破7.65万美元，主因中东局势再度升温、油价走高压制风险偏好；不过8月单月累计涨幅仍高达25%，当前更像是强势上涨后的高位消化，而非趋势反转。 一、就业数据：软着陆迹象增多 ADP数据显示美国私营部门8月新增就业3.8万人，为1月以来最低，此前7月数据从4.6万上修，低于市场47K的预期。教育医疗保健(4.5万)、建筑业(1.2万)、休闲酒店业(1.6万)表现较好，但制造业(-1.7万)、专业服务(-1.6万)出现收缩。 数据偏弱强化了市场对9月FOMC转向宽松的预期，但需注意：现任美联储主席沃什(Kevin Warsh，5月22日接替鲍威尔就任)此前在Jackson Hole讲话中仍强调通胀韧性未明显改善，短期内美联储在"就业走软"与"油价推升通胀"之间存在明显政策拉扯，9月议息会议的措辞将比数字本身更关键。 二、日本央行：9月加息预期升温 日本央行行长植田和男暗示，本月晚些时候召开的议息会议大概率将加息，称将带着物价上行风险的考量来决定政策。美国财政部长贝森特此前会见植田并呼吁采取"果断"货币措施应对日元疲软，进一步强化了本月加息的预期。目前市场隐含加息概率在77%左右，虽未到"接近100%"，但已是年内最强共识，9月17-18日会议前日元波动率值得留意。 三、地缘政治与原油：冲突尚未降温 美伊冲突并未缓和——美军对伊朗目标发动新一轮打击，伊朗随即对约旦、巴林、科威特境内的美军基地实施报复。特朗普表态不打算与伊朗谈判，并警告如遭报复将采取更大规模回应，这一次市场并未看到明显的"TACO"退让信号，更像是持续施压姿态。 油价方面：WTI站稳90美元上方，Brent收在95美元以上，为7月末以来最高，确实如你所说"没跌"。持续的中东风险溢价叠加，10年期美债收益率周三一度触及4.818%，为2023年11月以来新高，通胀交易正在与降息交易相互角力。 四、贸易摩擦：半导体关税山雨欲来 商务部长卢特尼克确认将于近期推出新一轮半导体关税，范围可能扩大至服务器、笔记本电脑、游戏主机等含芯片终端产品，且豁免范围较此前更窄。中美在半导体领域的摩擦仍是四季度需要持续跟踪的主线，对科技/半导体板块估值构成扰动。 五、美股表现 隔夜三大指数收涨：标普500涨0.46%报7666.60，纳指涨0.45%报26217.83，道指涨295点(0.56%)报53061.95，主要受英伟达、强生股价拉动，三大指数结束此前三日连跌。不过市场近期持续受高企国债收益率压制，交易员担忧油价上行对通胀的传导。 六、技术面 4小时级别：维持多头上行趋势结构，均线系统仍保持多头排列，未见破位信号； 30分钟级别：受中东局势扰动呈无序震荡，属于消息驱动的高频噪音，暂不改变中期趋势判断。 结论 短期看，"弱就业+紧地缘"的组合是本轮行情的核心矛盾：就业走软给了美联储降息的空间，但油价与地缘风险又在收益率端形成对冲力量，导致30分钟级别的无序波动。4小时级别的多头趋势尚未被破坏，建议以逢低参与为主，同时对半导体关税细则、9月17-18日日央行决议、9月FOMC三个关键节点保持高度关注，控制好仓位应对短期波动放大的风险。
美联储鹰派表态叠加中东战事全面升级，风险资产今日遭遇双重冲击。市场正在为9月17-18日"央行超级周"与霍尔木兹海峡供应中断风险重新定价。 【利率与美联储】
PayGo × Seerdex ⚡️ PayGo is pleased to announce a new partnership with @seerdexmarkets , a unified platform for prediction markets, binary options, and perpetual trading. Together, we’re advancing programmable payments and the next generation of on-chain markets.
N + C @NiggazAndCheese
81 Followers 149 Following nacho cheese and chocolate fountains, 420 buffet, live salsa band, nitrous tanks, ice for drinks, and comfy chairs
Sekiro @Tyler_K_Banting
62K Followers 53K Following
cathey daly @catheyddaly
137 Followers 390 Following
EJWinnin @FuckyoOpinion99
10K Followers 7K Following
Abbi Thompson @abbithompsonn
336 Followers 594 Following
FuckYeah Linda @LindaRainbow69
4K Followers 6K Following Living the life I love & love the life I Live #Actress #Model #teamfollowback #teamlesbian #TeamFemmeOnFemme #teamstud #tlw #trlw
PhAI Labs @PhAILabs
4K Followers 4 Following Building AI for real scientific discovery. Discovery Foundation Models, scientific agents & infrastructure.
弋扬 @moskey_12
3K Followers 190 Following 建设前沿Ai产品 偶尔发表市场观察 主要靠数据支持交易决策。资金安全和耐心比任何消息都重要。 无聊的时候也喜欢研究衍生品和期权。
Sterling @sterlingaixyz
3K Followers 19 Following Income layer for tokenized RWA. AI agent that finds safe yield on your idle stocks & stablecoins. Non-custodial. Deterministic. Verifiable.
RWAPerp.xyz @rwaperp
10K Followers 6 Following 24/7 onchain gateway for global assets. RWA perpetual futures for stocks, commodities, indices & crypto.
PayGo @PayGo402
17K Followers 161 Following One request = one settlement. Pay-as-you-go payments for APIs, AI & agents. x402 on ENI
Billion Live @Billion_Global
9K Followers 137 Following Livestream trading & prediction markets. Watch. Trade. Predict. All in one app. Powered by @XLayerOfficial
Jack 🇱🇷🇬🇭... @Jack117926
123 Followers 242 Following Make i give up keh?? Me way want make people dey argue about my net worth
狂人 @SompleiE
6 Followers 88 Following Madness is the fire of ideals, reason is their frame; without either, all turns to ashes.
Cali Yacht @CaliYacht110808
2 Followers 3 Following
Corner Store Intern @xxarddr27
6 Followers 31 Following working at a corner store everyday commodities trader
Greek Mythology @GreekMytho23870
1 Followers 8 Following
Tyson Githongo @TggG50854
3 Followers 49 Following
N + C @NiggazAndCheese
81 Followers 149 Following nacho cheese and chocolate fountains, 420 buffet, live salsa band, nitrous tanks, ice for drinks, and comfy chairs
C u ł ł i™ @_CULLI_
355K Followers 367K Following Archaic Sound In Vivid Motion. | | [email protected]
cathey daly @catheyddaly
137 Followers 390 Following
Sekiro @Tyler_K_Banting
62K Followers 53K Following
հ∑∫∫✪Ƙ✝β... @prttypinkskullz
2K Followers 1K Following licensed Cosmetologist. IG & SC: prttypinkskullz
Evelyn @evelynoyee
2K Followers 894 Following
True Value Protocol @tvpcards
10K Followers 2K Following the only sports card tool that talks back. drop in photos, comps, dealer ask, backstory | get real reasoning + ranges. for collectors, by collectors.
° @Repulsive
30K Followers 31K Following
JerryAscione @JerryAscione
32K Followers 2 Following SAG/AFTRA Actor, Director, Artist.Been to all 7 Continents. Come to my pool,it's very shallow. I'm sure you'll fit right in. Go ahead,steal it. IG:@jerryascione
Scoffnation @scoffnation
115K Followers 668 Following
SmackJack57.els ☘�... @DickHeadBart57
795 Followers 579 Following
Damion Nelson @SwagKiddDmillz
46 Followers 147 Following #TeamIphone OFWGKTA #TJMS #FUCKSWAG #KillYourself #RVIDXR KVLN #ALI
Dot Da Genius @DotDaGenius
33K Followers 659 Following
The Chosen One @KiDCuDi
2.4M Followers 146 Following happy to be here after all this time. Love ❤️🔥 NYT Best Selling Author, Cudi: The memoir OUT NOW, Big Bro w Kid Cudi S2 NOW IN SESSION every WEDS at 9am PST‼️
FuckYeah Linda @LindaRainbow69
4K Followers 6K Following Living the life I love & love the life I Live #Actress #Model #teamfollowback #teamlesbian #TeamFemmeOnFemme #teamstud #tlw #trlw
Abbi Thompson @abbithompsonn
336 Followers 594 Following
Andrew P @hollawhenimon
108K Followers 53K Following 🎧Level Up 🔥🔥 Playlist Andrew P on your go to streaming apps 🏁 Hiphop for Champions 🏆
Dr. Junk @JunkPhilosophy
1K Followers 2K Following I can predict the past AND get it right most of the time.
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