Joseph Wangs @Josephwangs_

US intel agencies assess Tehran believes it's "in a strong position in the war and doesn't have to accede to America’s diplomatic demands... And while Iran is willing to keep channels open," it doesn't trust the US or think it's serious about negotiations.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/us/…

THIRD U.S. AIRCRAFT CARRIER, USS GEORGE H.W. BUSH, DEPLOYS TO MIDDLE EAST - WSJ

With this latest JOLTS release, we're at a US labor market churn rate that's among the lowest since data began, rivaling the depths of the Great Recession.

Wow. This guys knows what's up.

محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf

6 months ago

Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.

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I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in different major consuming regions: - East Africa last week - East Asia this week - Europe next week - North America two more weeks

Markets Weekly March 28, 2026 Markets in trouble Iranian Victory Multipolarity youtu.be/tdFEbFJ4rbk

Looks like we've hit an inflection point where higher oil prices no longer push Fed policy expectations higher. Lower equity prices is moderating inflation fears by highlighting recession fears.

Interesting that gold and equities are now diverging. They had been tracking each other the past several sessions.

Happy to announce the 2nd Edition of Central Banking 101. This edition updates the data and adds 15% more content, including sections on SOFR transition, Treasury buy backs, SVB run, private credit etc. Available on amazon worldwide. Thank you for you attention to this matter.

amazon.com/Central-Bankin…

Forward guidance reunion 😎

x.com/i/article/2036…

BREAKING: Just five minutes before Trump's announcement to halt the attacks on Iran, massive trades reportedly hit the market. In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold. These orders were 4–6x larger than anything else at the time. The trader seemingly made huge gains. Unusual.

Step 1 in deescalation must be restraining the Israelis, otherwise all efforts to negotiate will follow this pattern: POTUS publicly announces deescalation. Israel takes major strikes to destroy the negotiations & in turn weaken our ability to negotiate. The war accelerates.

OSINTdefender @sentdefender

6 months ago

The Israeli Air Force has begun a new wave of strikes targeting infrastructure sites across the Iranian capital of Tehran.

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Trump gives Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or the U.S. will obliterate their power plants, "starting with the biggest one first." Three weeks of "winding down" talk just ended with the most aggressive threat of the entire war. Destroying Iran's power grid would plunge 90 million people into darkness and trigger a humanitarian catastrophe. The next two days will define everything. Source: Truth Social

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

6 months ago

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Iran just dropped its official demands to end the war. Tehran wants: 1. Ironclad guarantees the war never happens again 2. Every single U.S. military base in the Middle East shut down 3. Full compensation paid by the U.S. and Israel for all damage 4. Complete end

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Markets Weekly March 21, 2026 Carnage in Rates Some possible off-ramps youtu.be/nSOdWeueED8

WALLER SAYS THE FED CANNOT "LOOK THROUGH" A LARGE AND PERSISTENT OIL SHOCK; AT THIS POINT CAUTION FOR THE FED IS WARRANTED

The Israeli Strike Near Iran’s Reactor is an Ominous Signal The US and Israel find themselves cornered with dwindling options and growing desperation. This is evident in their attacks on Iran’s electrical grid and their calculated attempt to shift the Overton Window toward the nuclear threshold. The statement by Trump advisor David Sacks, suggesting Israel could escalate the conflict with nuclear options, coincides with a missile strike landing just 350 meters from the Bushehr reactor. This isn’t just a warning; it’s a veiled threat. It’s a trial balloon designed to gauge the global reaction to such a catastrophic possibility. A direct hit on an Iranian reactor would inevitably force Iran to retaliate against Dimona, leading us into a spiral of nuclear escalation, but what if Dimona be empty? As global opinion is being tested, this "window" is being meticulously shifted and calibrated. Currently, US-Israeli options, beyond aerial bombardment, include sector-specific ground operations. But what if these operations end in disaster? Even a NATO intervention might change nothing. In Libya, European NATO forces depleted their ammunition in about 10 days during a low-intensity conflict. Today, Rheinmetall claims European stockpiles are bone-dry. While I usually take Rheinmetall’s claims with a grain of salt, this time it actually makes sense. We are looking at a scenario of severe ammunition shortages against a heavily entrenched and well-armed Iran. Any landing operation would be a bloodbath. I believe that, faced with mounting internal and external failures, the US and Israel will gradually push the Overton Window to a choice between total defeat or the use of tactical nuclear weapons, in the event of a catastrophic failure of ground operations. Tactical nuclear weapons are strictly forbidden for use, yet their radiation dissipates within weeks in the current environment. Even so, it would constitute a grave war crime. I do not believe the U.S. would embark on such a path, but I cannot say the same for Israel. Ending the war with Iran still possessing enriched uranium would be equivalent to admitting that Netanyahu, instead of increasing his people's security, did the exact opposite. The internal pressure would be immense. If nothing goes as planned and the death toll rises, I feel this window can shift much faster.

Well, I did not anticipate this: *BESSENT: US MAY UNSANCTION IRANIAN OIL THAT’S ON WATER

March 2026 FOMC Debrief youtu.be/6oBV2qgxIfI