𝗟𝗶ᴢᴢ 𝗧𝗵𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘀 @LizzThomInv
Chief Market Strategist at @SoFi. Proud Wisconsin native. If you want something new, you have to stop doing something old. sofi.com/on-the-money/c… Joined June 2010-
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🔒 AI is rapidly changing the cybersecurity environment. What does that mean for investment opportunities? New episode of The Important Part with Boaz Gelbord, Chief Security at @Akamai is on YouTube now‼️ youtu.be/SO9ycKk6QUs?si…
WORLD SERIES BOUND‼️‼️‼️ #ThisIsMyCrew
Oh dear. Sept PPI came in at 1.3% m/m, significantly above the est for 0.6% and the highest since March 2022, the first full month of the Russia-Ukraine war. And it wasn't just oil--without Energy's contribution, the m/m rate would have still been over 0.6%.
🔥 New pod is out and this one's a banger‼️ Emma Grede, entrepreneur extraordinaire, and Rebecca Patterson, investor extraordinaire, joined me for a live event in NYC to talk about the importance of taking risks. Goes live on YouTube at 3pm ET ⬇️ youtu.be/vKEn2S5Ow9s?si…
One of my fave charts this cycle: S&P 500 fwd earnings are up ~38% y/y, which may seem crazy, but South Korea exports are up 84% y/y! The relationship between the two is strong. Despite the Kospi having a rough few days, this picture is promising.
Public companies are citing inflation concerns the most they have in years. Industrials and Consumer stocks discuss it most on an absolute basis, but mentions from Semiconductors, Tech Hardware, Materials, and Pharma mentions have increased year-over-year.
‼️Our podcast has been nominated for a Signal Listener's Choice award -- if you love the show we need your votes! Our live episode with Michael Lewis and Tom Lee is up for best brand storytelling in money & finance. Vote here (please and thank you).⬇️ vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting#/…
The S&P 500 is up 14% year-to-date, but note the drivers: forward EPS has added 31% while forward P/E has been a 17% drag. That doesn't mean there isn't a bubble, but this has quieted the chatter about it for now.
Vibes are off: October consumer sentiment fell again, now at an index value of 46.3 vs the est of 47.6. This mirrors the increase in consumer inflation expectations (1yr up from 4.6% to 4.7%, 5-10yr up from 3.4% to 3.5%).
💥New column on midterms by @MarioIsmailanji this week ⬇️
🗞️ Midterms are less than a month away. Are Democrats or Republicans going to control Congress? Does it even matter? sofi.com/article/invest…
Brazilian 2-year yields are down 114 basis points in a single day, the most on record. The move is in response to better-than-anticipated presidential election results for Bolsonaro, the market-preferred challenger who has promised significant spending cuts.
Wage growth came in below expectations today, which is in line with its trend over the past year. Based on indicators like the quits rate or labor differential, not much reason to expect it to change. Higher inflation + lower wage growth is a tough consumer environment.
September jobs data came in a bit soft: 29k jobs added vs est of 90k, while the prior two months were revised down by 60k. Unemployment rose from 4.14% to 4.18% (note the rounding shows that as 4.1% to 4.2%).
Large-cap Growth stocks were the only size & style blend to record a positive September (+2%). Other combos saw losses of 3-5%.
Potential credit issues stemming from the Fed's hawkish pivot are now becoming apparent. 5-year CDS spreads have meaningfully widened for both IG & HY credit over the last two weeks. Monitoring this situation.
💥This week's column on what investors can do about yields. We're witnessing history... again. sofi.com/article/invest…
🚨New episode of The Important Part pod will go live on YouTube at 3pm ET‼️ @JeanChatzky talks about exactly how to plan for your future. This is a must listen for anyone who ever wants to retire... even if you just started working. youtube.com/watch?v=k1exBG…
The much anticipated PCE revisions: headline & core PCE came in below estimates at 3.4% and 3.0%, respectively. This flattened the inflationary trend, with recent months about 0.3pp lower than initial releases indicated. Treasury yield curve steepened on the news.
Saw someone wearing Brewers gear in NYC today (rare, VERY rare). Shouted "Go Brewers!" in their direction got a "YEAH!" back. Happy for the Yankees and all last night... but #thisismycrew
The latest price trends from regional Fed surveys for both manufacturing & services point to inflationary pressures intensifying. Now that the hiking has begun, the Fed will likely keep going until/unless this turns around, or something breaks.
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