Felix Nikolas Prehn 🐶 @NikolasPrehn

I just sat down with Tom Bilyeu on his podcast. Here are the 8 things I told him about how inflation is silently hurting the average American, America's $40T debt problem and Japan's carry trade: 1) If you JUST have a salary, it will lead to poverty

If your salary hasn’t increased by about 30% since Feb 2020, you’ve gotten poorer. And you probably FEEL it. Your lifestyle hasn’t changed much. Same home. Same car. Same groceries. Yet you’re dipping into savings more... Going out less... Seeing friends less... And even when you save, it feels like you’re still have to dip into it every week. Here’s what changed: Since 2020, official consumer prices have risen almost 30%. At the same time, US M2 money supply has increased 51%. More money entered the system so the dollars YOU earned bought less. If your salary didn't increase at the same rate as consumer prices, you just got poorer.

Felix Nikolas Prehn 🐶 @felixprehn

2 weeks ago

The S&P 500 is at near record highs, looking healthy. Yet Paramount’s credit risk is back near 2008 financial-crisis levels. Why? Credit usually shows the stress BEFORE the stock market does. Why this is a warning sign of a GLOBAL credit reset: 🧵

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PS. I put together a FREE report breaking down this credit reset, what’s happening underneath the market and what it can mean for your money. You can read it here: felixfriends.org/creditreset

Saudi Arabia’s main airport in Riyadh was just hit by a missile. For 50 YEARS, the US provided security while Saudi priced oil in DOLLARS. If Saudi stops trusting US protection, dollar demand can weaken... pushing the dollar DOWN and US prices UP. Let me explain: 🧵

Before we go further, I’m Felix Prehn. I’m an economist, former investment banker and founder of The Prehn Institute, where we publish research on financial markets, and I’ve worked with 25,000+ students. I also take no sponsorships and never have.

$1.6 billion left silver last week. If you own silver as protection against inflation, that ISN'T what you want to hear. 3 reasons behind why this happened: 1) The stronger dollar is pushing silver down 2) Speculative positions are being unwound 3) Trend-following funds are selling because their rules tell them to sell when prices fall Here's what I mean:

Felix Nikolas Prehn 🐶 @felixprehn

2 weeks ago

The S&P 500 is at near record highs, looking healthy. Yet Paramount’s credit risk is back near 2008 financial-crisis levels. Why? Credit usually shows the stress BEFORE the stock market does. Why this is a warning sign of a GLOBAL credit reset: 🧵

5 10 102 64K 25

PS. I put together a FREE report breaking down this credit reset, what’s happening underneath the market and what it can mean for your money. You can read it here: felixfriends.org/creditreset

Felix Nikolas Prehn on why a missile striking Riyadh's airport is really a dollar story, and what Saudi Arabia's quiet shift away from American assets means for every portfolio built on the assumption the petrodollar deal still holds. Today's video is now on podcast. Felix Nikolas Prehn examines the 1974 petrodollar arrangement that has underpinned the dollar's global dominance for 50 years, and why Saudi Arabia calling Paris and Islamabad instead of Washington after the attack signals a drift that central bank gold reserves will confirm before any headline does. 🎙 Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/5uV7IpkAd… 🎙 Buzzsprout: buzzsprout.com/1920505/episod… Not investment advice. Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker.

This is what the credit reset looks like from the inside: 1/ America’s 10-year borrowing cost hit 5.3%, the highest since 2000 2/ Oracle bonds fell from 100 to 82. SpaceX bonds fell from 100 to 85. Meta-linked debt fell from 110 to 91 3/ Paramount’s credit risk is back near 2008 financial-crisis levels 4/ 89% of Russell 3000 stocks are down 10%+ from their peaks. More than HALF are down 20%. Yet the S&P 500 still looks healthy. The reason why is credit typically weakens BEFORE the stock market shows it. As borrowing gets more expensive, bond prices fall and companies pay MORE to finance themselves. Stock prices react afterwards. So the index can look fine, but there's stress underneath it all.

Felix Nikolas Prehn 🐶 @felixprehn

2 weeks ago

The S&P 500 is at near record highs, looking healthy. Yet Paramount’s credit risk is back near 2008 financial-crisis levels. Why? Credit usually shows the stress BEFORE the stock market does. Why this is a warning sign of a GLOBAL credit reset: 🧵

5 10 102 64K 25

PS. I put together a FREE report breaking down this credit reset, what’s happening underneath the market and what it can mean for your money. You can read it here: felixfriends.org/creditreset

Why the Global Monetary Reset Has Just Begun (Saudi, Yemen & Gold)

Felix Nikolas Prehn on the Credit Reset in Eight Data Points The debt pile US government debt has reached 40 trillion dollars. In 2020 the total was 23 trillion dollars. The money supply is up 51 per cent since the pandemic. Consumer prices are officially up almost 30 per cent over the same period. Chart by Felix Nikolas Prehn: 89 per cent of Russell 3000 stocks down over 10 per cent since June

The Fed expanded its balance sheet from 4 to about 9 trillion dollars, since wound down to close to 7. The 51 per cent rise in M2 and the Fed's asset purchases are the direct cause of price increases since 2020.

Felix Nikolas Prehn on why Oracle, SpaceX and Meta bonds hitting record lows while the S&P sits near all-time highs means 89% of American stocks are already in a bear market most investors cannot see. Today's video is now on podcast. Felix Nikolas Prehn examines the credit reset hiding beneath the surface of a calm index, the $1.6 billion silver flush that historically precedes a money-printing response, and why long-dated bonds are now paying their highest yield in over two decades. 🎙 Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/5uV7IpkAd… 🎙 Buzzsprout: buzzsprout.com/1920505/episod… Not investment advice. Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker.

The S&P 500 is at near record highs, looking healthy. Yet Paramount’s credit risk is back near 2008 financial-crisis levels. Why? Credit usually shows the stress BEFORE the stock market does. Why this is a warning sign of a GLOBAL credit reset: 🧵

Before we go further, I’m Felix Prehn. I’m an economist, former investment banker and founder of The Prehn Institute, where we publish research on financial markets, and I’ve worked with 25,000+ students. I also take no sponsorships and never have.

Everyone forgets that investing is simply a skill. Just like playing baseball, basketball or football, it takes years to learn. You can learn it faster being around the right guidance and support, but it still needs you to put in the reps & time.

Felix Nikolas Prehn 🐶 @felixprehn

a month ago

I just sat down with Tom Bilyeu on his podcast. Here are the 8 things I told him about how inflation is silently hurting the average American, America's $40T debt problem and Japan's carry trade: 1) If you JUST have a salary, it will lead to poverty

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PS. I just sat down with Tom Bilyeu to unpack what’s really happening beneath the US economy. We covered the bond market, America’s debt, Japan’s 30-year playbook, money printing, inflation and AI. Watch the full conversation on YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=Si52BL…

The Global Credit Reset Is Here (and Why Silver is Next)