Rob HODLs @Rob_h0dls

I imagine a hyperbitcoinization world and work backwards. $MSTR enthusiast. Hamilton, Ontario Joined August 2023

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

9 months ago

The ultimate 2025 $MSTR prediction thread. 1,566,000 Bitcoin in $MSTR’s treasury by Dec 2025. Let’s go 🧵

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

Bitcoin @ $116,500. It has become so normalized. No celebrations. No excitement. Just another day for the future of money. 🤷‍♂️

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

Investing $20 a day in $STRC at 10% yield vs. Saving $20.

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100,000 BTC Treasuries I can see. But 100,000 companies issuing BTC backed credit I think is wrong. I almost want to say that $MSTR will have a monopoly on the ‘risk free’ digital capital-based credit market. Everything else will need to add some unique element of risk to…

Chaitanya Jain @_ChaitanyaJ

2 weeks ago

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

$MSTR failed with their $STRC product launch IMO. An iPhone moment needs hype and buzz. Not a whimper. I would have preferred (pun intended) that it was met with immediate demand and trading at over par value so the ATM could commence immediately. They should have tested…

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

$STRC volume is so low that I might put in a bid at $101 to get the ATM party started.

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

I can’t believe the market is giving us $1.5 of bitcoin for every dollar of dilution. 🥰 Dilute me harder @saylor.

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

@saylor just laid out the path for $MSTR to become the next multi-trillion dollar company... But I need to call "bull"shit. Let's go 🧵

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

I think @saylor is sandbagging his actual estimates and knows that if $MSTR works, it will be the largest company on earth by a factor of 10 in 10 years. And it all comes down to access to 'leverage'. We'll be watching!

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

Thanks for reading. If you're interested in $MSTR, give me a follow. I share insights and analysis with a bullish tilt. 🙏

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

The market will keep pressuring $MSTR’s mNAV until: 1) a clear alternative source of capital emerges that can deliver sufficient BTC Yield to justify the multiple (e.g. $STRC) Or 2) we get a break out in BTC, causing renewed investor interest in $MSTR and short covering.…

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

Don’t forget to hit that ‘follow’ button if you’re interested in $MSTR! 🙏

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

I think something is wrong with my phone screen. $MSTR's ticker is showing a weird green looking colour.

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

Yikes! $50M/BTC at 10% of the supply. Yet, @saylor just showed a path to 9.4% assuming only a 30% ARR. The math is obscene. $50M BTC with 1.9M BTC...well you do the math. I got lost with all the zeros.

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

This means @saylor is materially sandbagging his expectations for $MSTR and $MSTR will have significantly more debt capacity than expected. The question is simply - is there enough demand for $MSTR debt and prefs to attain this? I'll explore this next.

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

If 'intelligent leverage' is the main source of BPS growth, reaching 558k sats/share with minimal share 'dilution' would imply $MSTR would be sitting on ~1.9M BTC (~320M shares * 588 sats/share) OR! ~9.4% of all available BTC (19.9M mined to date, not including lost coins).

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

But this is where things get interesting... From today's price of $114k, 30% BTC ARR implies a price of $1.57M/BTC in year 10 - this means that 1.9M BTC would be worth ~$2.9 TRILLION! Amazing, right? Well, hold on a sec...

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

US Treasury yields are in free fall, widening the spread offered on $MSTR’s $STRC preferred relative to the “risk free” rate. Yet $STRC price is absolutely pinned to $97.5/share. 👀

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

Want to see how $MSTR could >27X in 10 years? If $MSTR juices leverage to 30% (currently 11%) and BTC grows at 30% ARR, $MSTR would be sitting on 1.9M BTC at $1.52M/BTC, or $2.84 TRILLION worth of BTC.

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Rob HODLs @RHodls

2 weeks ago

The mNAV grind lower continues reaching new last 12 months (LTM) low of 1.43x - How low can she go? Anything over 1x is accretive to BTC/share and expands capacity for more debt/preferred shares. My thesis: @saylor will hammer the equity ATM as much as possible in the near…