Valuespectrum @Valuespectrum
http://t.co/m3wqN1wzRP focusses on everything about value investing in the US, Europe and beyond. Daily analyses, reports and screeners. Bottom up fundamental! valuespectrum.com New York Joined December 2013-
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The #Gold/#Platinum ratio has a better track record than most of the other better known indicators For 2025 the GP-ratio predicts the #SP500 will finish the year at appx 6950 pts At current level, this implies a gain of 24% Unfortunately geopolitics’ risk are on the rise
European stocks haven’t kept up with #WallStreet since 2009, but are on a roll The #EuroStoxx50 is the benchmark of 50 blue-chip companies from 11 countries in the eurozone The #SP500 tracks the performance of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States
Wall Street’s turmoil The S&P 500 eyes bear market territory as Trump’s tariffs triggered a global sell-off #WallStreet #SP500 #Nasdaq #Volatility #Gold #OIl #BondMarkets
Widening the view #FactorInvesting works better with European #Stocks than American Lower economic growth > lower corporate profits > lower #StockMarket returns > greater need for generating excess return > more focus on distinct factors #Value #Size #Momentum #LowVol #Quality
Teddy bear or Grizzly The current correction could morph into a #BearMarket Bear markets occur every seven year on average If the current correction continues, this will be the third bear market in less than seven years #SP500 #WallStreet #Bonds #Commodities
The Big Five of factor investing Factors help investors understand differences in long-term returns Factor investing targets securities with specific characteristics and can be used to enhance returns or manage risk #Value #SmallCap #Momentum #LowVolatility #Quality
Since 1980 #WallStreet experienced 6 bull & bear markets Bear markets declined on average 36% in 14 months Whereas bull markets middling lasted 6.2 years and returned 333% Yet, nobody knows when the ongoing #bullmarket will end and how severe it will be #SP500 #Bonds #Commodities
Risk on, Risk off Donald Trump’s election victory was seen as the swan song for #European #Stocks Forget #MAGA, Investors want MEGA [Make America/Europe Great Again] and are now betting it could actually be the opposite #WallStreet #StocksInFocus #MarketsOnTheMove
The performance of different asset classes by decade from the 1950s to 2023 In the first 4 years of this decade U.S. large cap equities have earned 12% return, making it so far, the most profitable asset class in the 2020s. #SP500 #Bonds #Gold #Oil #WallStreet
As goes January, so goes the year The January indicator is a statistical oddity as it lacks scientific evidence For 2024 January's return foretells a great year for the #SP500 If it turns out differently, there are three kinds of lies: little lies, damned lies and statistics
Estimating future drawdowns Sooner or later markets are going to be hit, but how hard? Rule of thumb: drawdown = 3.3 x sigma #SP500 #Correction #BearMarket #WallStreet
Momentum is the premier market anomaly and contradicts the strategy of buying low and selling high The #momentum factor prevails in the market due to irrational behavioral biases of investors such as herd mentality, fear, greed and confirmation bias #SP500 #WallStreet
In theory a stock split compares to cutting a piece of cake. It doesn’t impact a company’s fundamental position and therefore creates no additional value In practice the number of shares outstanding increases. This will boost its stock’s liquidity #WallStreet $NVDA
Although there are regional differences in the first half of 2024, #Momentum stocks outpaced the broad market, and #Quality became a momentum trade. #LowVolatility is along with Enhanced #Value the worst performing factor. #SP500 #WallStreet #European #StockMarket
Concentration vs Diversification Apparently Harry Markowitz found a free lunch in finance #Diversification involves investing across various assets #Concentration focuses on a limited number of assets What wins in the long term: Index fund or Top 10 S&P stocks? #WallStreet #SP500
The markets are doing well this year, and some stocks do very well. That invites #WindowDressing. Not only do #momentum stocks gain strength as the year progresses, the also perform well in the last three months of the year, traditionally the strongest quarter. #SP500 #WallStreet
Is the #MagnificentSeven still a good bet for 2025? The Bull Case sees the #Mag7 reaching 34193 pts, a rise of 41.4% The Base Case predicts 27514 pts, an increase of 13.8% The Bear Case foretells a drop to 20574 pts, a loss of 14.9% #WallStreet #SP500
Get to know: the new S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Family Almost two decades after the introduction of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats S&P Global launched last September the S&P 500 Quality FCF Aristocrats #SP500 #Aristocrats #Dividend #Quality @wallstreet

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