This is clearly distorted due to Predictit's limit on position sizes of $850/market and number of traders/market. In efficient market would add up to 100, not 105.
Good point. PredictIt has size limitations ($850 per market) which don't allow mispricings like 53-50 to be corrected but the two markets that do seem to be priced correctly are 51-49. Also, Elon's playing around on Polymarket too...
@WalterDeemer I am old enough to remember when Hillary Clinton had a >80 % chance of winning the day before election day in 2016. In any case, Predictit has it much closer (53-50) & it's probably more reliable since they don't have a horse in this race. Also, bearish reversal in $DJT yesterday
The storm: We were lucky -- record number of tornado warnings but no bad ones within five miles. Wind gusts as forecast (55 mph) but rain less than expected. But had tornado w/fatalities and bad flooding 30 miles north of us, so we were indeed lucky. Hope all of you were, too...
This is incredible: NHC and the models haven't budged more than a few miles from this track for days. And making landfall north or south of the bay has enormous implications for the size of the surge. Stay safe, everyone!
Latest spaghetti on # Milton and NHC track in blue. Although we’ve seen a slight south trend, we are literally splitting the uprights on the Sunshine Skyway bridge. Even if there’s a lean south, Too close to call on landfall north or south of Bay.
@WFLA
Tampa/Gulf Coast followers: PLEASE -- PLAY IT SAFE! Wind speeds get the headlines but storm surge is the far bigger risk with this one. Even if winds decrease before landfall as forecast it won't reduce the surge. Old hurricane saying: "Hide from the wind -- but run from the water!"
From 8 years ago (Hurricane Matthew): “NWS Melbourne point forecast for River Park now predicting winds @ 55-75 G 90. Forecast at midday was 85-105 G 130. Storm going a bit further east than they thought .” Peak gust ended up being only 55. Copy that, Milton???
22 Followers 120 Following🛍️ I’m not just holding bags, I’m holding trauma | 💀 Crypto OG & casualty of the elusive 2025 alt season | 🚀 Epic comeback – allegedly pending
114 Followers 2K Followingexpert cuddles... If you laugh at my bad jokes, you might just be the one I'm looking for. Go ahead, make the first move, I don't bite (but my dog might)🏳️🌈
2K Followers 557 FollowingA digital movement inspired by Gumi Bali ngametuang cahaya ring jagat — where culture, community, and crypto unite. Immutable. LP locked. Audited.
97 Followers 637 FollowingI’m Mike weirsky.i won the 2019 New Jersey lottery of $273millions.I’m giving away 30% of it to help the citizens picking randomly out of my first 1k followers!
2K Followers 3K FollowingJZR Gold Inc. (TSXV: JZR.V) is a junior mining resource company that is engaged in the business of the exploration & development of mineral properties.
42 Followers 408 FollowingWilliam Gutiérrez-Levy (born August 29, 1980) is a Cuban-American actor and former model. William Levy. Levy in 2015. Born, (1980-08-29) August 29, ...
500 Followers 625 FollowingHi, I'm Princeus. I'm a professional trader in New York for many years. Follow me to get market insights, trading and investment skills, and help you increas
244 Followers 431 FollowingSavvy Investor, Swimmer & Traveller. My stock ideas are just for sharing. You are responsible for trade and decision if you act on my stock ideas.
22 Followers 120 Following🛍️ I’m not just holding bags, I’m holding trauma | 💀 Crypto OG & casualty of the elusive 2025 alt season | 🚀 Epic comeback – allegedly pending