The 19% gain in the S&P 500 over the last 9 weeks is the 16th biggest 9-week gain for the index since 1950.
What tends to follow the biggest short-term advances?
More upside and above-average returns.
Strength begets strength.
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=FlmEAF…
In my opinion, this is the most compelling chart for being a stock market investor.
Over the last 50 years:
-US Inflation: up 6x
-US Treasury Bills: up 8x
-S&P 500 total return: up 271x
Over the long run, stocks trounce inflation and protect your purchasing power.
The S&P 500 has never been more concentrated in just ten stocks than it is today with the biggest US companies representing nearly 40% of the index.
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=pJGsJO…
“We look for three things when we hire people. We look for intelligence, we look for initiative, and we look for integrity. And if they don’t have the latter, the first two will kill you.” – Warren Buffett
The longest duration bond ETF is down over 60% from its peak in March 2020.
How is that possible?
The 30-Year Treasury yield has moved from an all-time low of 0.8% in March 2020 to over 5% today.
Long duration + Rising interest rates = Pain
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=pJGsJO…
Including dividends, the S&P 500 is now up over 1,400% since the March 2009 low - despite 32 corrections >5%.
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” Peter Lynch
The most important indicator for the health of the real economy is how wage growth compares to inflation.
For the first time since 2023 we're seeing prices in the US rise faster than wages, a decline in prosperity for the American worker.
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=pJGsJO…
Price changes over last year (April CPI report)
Fuel Oil: +54.3%
Gasoline: +28.4%
Electricity: +6.1%
Transportation: +4.3%
Apparel: +4.2%
Overall CPI: +3.8%
Food away from home: +3.6%
Shelter: +3.3%
Medical Care: +3.2%
Gas Utilities: +3.0%
Food at home: +2.9%
New Cars: +0.2%
Used Cars: -2.7%
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