. @_T_mmerFidelity

Dir. of Global Macro @Fidelity. Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine. https://t.co/rVHu3ERJzH socialAM fidelity.com Boston Joined September 2011

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

All roads lead to the playa It’s that time of year again, when I unplug my computer for two weeks and drive 600 miles to the middle of nowhere to do this thing called Burning Man. This will be my seventh year, and my 5th year running a food camp called Feed the Artists (FtA).…

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

International equities have continued to shine in both USD and local currency terms, and breadth is at a healthy 74%. In terms of relative momentum, ex-US equities have the momentum (blue line), taking the baton from the US (pink line). With the Fed now poised to ease, and in…

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

Beyond the direction of the S&P 500 index, there is much to be celebrated for equity bulls and asset allocators. As the periodic table shows below, the pond is full of fish right now. Beyond the Mag 7, both developed and emerging equities are participating in this bull market,…

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

While gold has taken a rest in recent weeks, Bitcoin made another all-time high last week at $124k. On a 4:1 basis (which is how I think of a gold & bitcoin pairing), the two stores of value are currently right in balance which each other.

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

The one fly in the ointment for the bullish momentum are the seasonals, which will remain weak until mid-October. These types of indicators always come with the “all else being equal” caveat, but in this case the seasonal dip is complemented by a dip in the presidential…

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

For the calendar year, the estimate has recovered half of the April markdown and now sits at 9.2%. /3

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

Earnings estimates for the Mag7 also continue their climb, powering the AI train ever forward. /END

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

Another week, and another new high for most equity indices. The S&P 500 cap-weighted index now sits at 6481, which is quite a feat considering it traded at 4835 just a few months ago. The glass seems to be mostly full these days, with investors embracing the animal spirits of…

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

With the Fed now fully expected to ease in September, the bigger news will be to what extend Chair Powell’s remaining months at the helm of the Fed might be overshadowed by the next Chair, and to what degree their directives might be at odds. At least for now the main difference…

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

Looking at the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, we see a market that sits right on its rising trendline (just short of making new highs), with about two-thirds of the market above their moving average. Meanwhile the equal-weighted forward P/E ratio of 18.3x is a smidge above its…

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

pilgrimage to impernanence 2025. See you after Labor Day.

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

For many years while US equities dominated the global landscape, the relative valuation discount of non-US equities was tempting but lacking a catalyst in the form of improving fundamentals. That has recently changed, at least for non-US developed market equities. 🧵

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

The next chart highlights the impressive catch-up by international developed equities in the past year or so. The payout is booming, as is the payout ratio. Today, investors can buy competitive fundamentals at two-thirds of the price. /4

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

The global broadening is of course good news for investors, stock pickers, and asset allocators, who now have a bigger pond to fish in, while navigating a top-heavy US market landscape. My sense is that this will be a lasting trend that takes us from figuring out a way to capture…

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

There is no question that we have been in a secular bull market for many years (since 2009 by my count). The question is whether it will eventually end with a whimper or a bang. The 1982-2000 secular bull ended with a loud bang in the form of the dot.com bubble,…

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

The leadership is now as top-heavy as it was in 1963, with top 10 stocks comprising 35% of the US market cap and the top 50 making up 57%. The parallel to the 1960’s is compelling, given the compelling analog to the fiscal/monetary landscape as well as the secular trend.

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

With expectations for a September rate cut now at 90%, the bond market remains very calm. The forward curve now predicts a terminal rate near 3% in 2026.

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

Seasonally we are now in the weakest part of the year (until mid-October). As always, the qualifier for these indicators is that they work “all else being equal,” and this being 2025, nothing else is equal!

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Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

a month ago

Earnings are pulling their weight, with Q2 earnings season producing a larger than average bounce. With 483 companies reporting, 81% have beaten estimates by an average of 843 bps. The tariff-related earnings markdowns in April have giving way to markups, as the fear of falling…