Australian Election Forecasts @aeforecasts
Makes probabilistic forecasts for Australian elections. aeforecasts.com Australia Joined January 2022-
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#Essential primaries in theory not on same scale as other polls because undecided left in. ALP 35 L-NP 27 Green 11 ON 13 TOP 2 IND/other 6 undecided 6 Their "2PP+" by respondent prefs ALP leads 51-44 (=53.7) My 2025 prefs estimate 56.2 to ALP
Have not seen this elsewhere yet but looks like first federal YouGov of the term at 56-44. 16% of 2022 Coalition voters now say they would vote for One Nation.
Have not seen this elsewhere yet but looks like first federal YouGov of the term at 56-44. 16% of 2022 Coalition voters now say they would vote for One Nation.
#Morgan (Aug 25 - Sep 21) ALP 34 L-NP 30 Green 12 ON 9.5 IND/others 14.5 Their 2PP by respondent prefs 55.5 to ALP (-1) by last election prefs 55.5 (=) my estimate for published primaries 55.0 (-0.2) roymorgan.com/findings/9947-…
#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 38 L-NP 28 Green 10 IND 11 others 12 My 2PP estimate 59.0 to ALP (+1.3) #nswpol
#ResolvePM ALP 35 L-NP 27 Grn 11 ON 12 (!!) IND 9 others 6 Their 2PP (respondent prefs) 55 to ALP (-4) My estimate (last election) 55.6 to ALP (-1.8)
#Redbridge ALP 35 L-NP 30 Grn 11 ON 11 (!) others 13 Their 2PP 53.5 to ALP (-2) My 2PP estimate for these primaries 54.7 to ALP (-0.9) 19 Aug - 8 Sep n=5326 changes since June
Australia, Roy Morgan poll: ALP (Centre-left): 34% (-3) L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 30% (-1) GRN (Green): 12% ONP (Right): 9% (+2) +/- vs. 30 June - 27 July 2025 Fieldwork: 28 July - 24 August 2025 Sample size: 5,001 ➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia
#ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 32 (+8) L-NP 33 (-8) Grn 12 (-2) IND 9 (-5) others 13 (+6) My 2PP estimate 53=47 to ALP (+7) Changes (big changes!) since late March #springst
#ResolvePM ALP 37 L-NP 29 Grn 12 ON 9 IND 8 others 6 My 2PP estimate for these primaries 57.4 to ALP (+0.9)
#Newspoll 56-44 to ALP. ALP 36 L-NP 30 Grn 12 ON 9 others 13 Whoever does the pie charts for the Australian -1000 sack sack sack sack sack
Wolf+Smith 57-43 to ALP. ALP 36 L-NP 30. Pref PM Albanese 45-35 (pref PM polls favour incumbents, that's actually good for Ley) Link to PB not AFR because AFR failed to publish full primaries pollbludger.net/2025/08/06/wol…
Morgan 57-43. (Paying less attention than usual to federal polls at present but will get back into aggregating them later this year.)
Morgan 57-43. (Paying less attention than usual to federal polls at present but will get back into aggregating them later this year.)
#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 38 L-NP 32 GRN 13 IND 8 others 10. My 2PP estimate 57.7 to ALP (+5.4). Federal boost effect?
#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 38 L-NP 32 GRN 13 IND 8 others 10. My 2PP estimate 57.7 to ALP (+5.4). Federal boost effect?
Australia, Resolve poll: ALP (Centre-left): 35% L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 29% (-3) GRN (Green): 12% ONP (Right): 8% (+2) +/- vs. 2025 election result Fieldwork: 13-18 July 2025 Sample size: 2,311 ➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/2025-f… 2025 Federal Post-Election Pendulum We now have a federal pendulum skew like Victoria at state level; without redistribution the Coalition could need 51% 2PP just to put Labor into minority.
@kevinbonham DemosAU demosau.com/wp-content/upl… 2PP: ALP 59, L-NP 41 P: ALP 36, L-NP 26, GRN 14, ON 9, Other 15, Undecided 9 Interesting breakdowns by sex, age, education and home ownership
And also Redbridge Vic (state) ALP 33 L-NP 38 Grn 14 others 15 2PP ALP leads 51.5-48.5 Allan govt has right focus/priorities net -28 Battin + L-NP have done enough, deserve to win net -19 #SpringSt
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