Australian Election Forecasts @aeforecasts
Makes probabilistic forecasts for Australian elections. aeforecasts.com Australia Joined January 2022-
Tweets793
-
Followers2K
-
Following24
-
Likes105
Australia, Roy Morgan poll: ALP (Centre-left): 34% (-3) L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 30% (-1) GRN (Green): 12% ONP (Right): 9% (+2) +/- vs. 30 June - 27 July 2025 Fieldwork: 28 July - 24 August 2025 Sample size: 5,001 ➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia
#ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 32 (+8) L-NP 33 (-8) Grn 12 (-2) IND 9 (-5) others 13 (+6) My 2PP estimate 53=47 to ALP (+7) Changes (big changes!) since late March #springst
#ResolvePM ALP 37 L-NP 29 Grn 12 ON 9 IND 8 others 6 My 2PP estimate for these primaries 57.4 to ALP (+0.9)
#Newspoll 56-44 to ALP. ALP 36 L-NP 30 Grn 12 ON 9 others 13 Whoever does the pie charts for the Australian -1000 sack sack sack sack sack
Wolf+Smith 57-43 to ALP. ALP 36 L-NP 30. Pref PM Albanese 45-35 (pref PM polls favour incumbents, that's actually good for Ley) Link to PB not AFR because AFR failed to publish full primaries pollbludger.net/2025/08/06/wol…
Morgan 57-43. (Paying less attention than usual to federal polls at present but will get back into aggregating them later this year.)
Morgan 57-43. (Paying less attention than usual to federal polls at present but will get back into aggregating them later this year.)
#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 38 L-NP 32 GRN 13 IND 8 others 10. My 2PP estimate 57.7 to ALP (+5.4). Federal boost effect?
#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 38 L-NP 32 GRN 13 IND 8 others 10. My 2PP estimate 57.7 to ALP (+5.4). Federal boost effect?
Australia, Resolve poll: ALP (Centre-left): 35% L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 29% (-3) GRN (Green): 12% ONP (Right): 8% (+2) +/- vs. 2025 election result Fieldwork: 13-18 July 2025 Sample size: 2,311 ➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/2025-f… 2025 Federal Post-Election Pendulum We now have a federal pendulum skew like Victoria at state level; without redistribution the Coalition could need 51% 2PP just to put Labor into minority.
@kevinbonham DemosAU demosau.com/wp-content/upl… 2PP: ALP 59, L-NP 41 P: ALP 36, L-NP 26, GRN 14, ON 9, Other 15, Undecided 9 Interesting breakdowns by sex, age, education and home ownership
And also Redbridge Vic (state) ALP 33 L-NP 38 Grn 14 others 15 2PP ALP leads 51.5-48.5 Allan govt has right focus/priorities net -28 Battin + L-NP have done enough, deserve to win net -19 #SpringSt
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/2025-f… 2025 Federal Election Pollster Performance Review
Morgan 57.5 to ALP. Feel that narrowing from 58!
Morgan 57.5 to ALP. Feel that narrowing from 58!
#YouGov SA (state) ALP 48 Lib 21 Green 14 ON 7 IND 8 others 2 2PP 67-33 to ALP (!) adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-aus… #saparli
Missed this but last night there was an #Ipsos poll which is hard to benchmark as no voting intention polls from them this term (but did poll previous terms) Raw primaries (not comparable with other polls) ALP 28 L-NP 33 Green 13 ON 8 others 14 undecided 5 51-49 to ALP
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/05/2025-e… 2025 Election Day: Newspoll Says Comfortable Re-Election
Hmmm primaries in final YouGov poll sum to 98.8 au.yougov.com/politics/artic…
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
19K Followers 1K Following Psephologist, polling analyst/transparency advocate, electoral consultant, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Auth KB Mt Stuart
Leonardo Puglisi @Leo_Puglisi6
60K Followers 10K Following Founder @6NewsAU | Become a supporter: https://t.co/StM3ioY5HM | https://t.co/Ct9YmMCVhC
Kos Samaras @KosSamaras
34K Followers 1K Following Director at RedBridge Group Australia. Endurance athlete. Religion: Stoicism. Research posted - paid by and for RedBridge.
Paul Karp @Paul_Karp
45K Followers 3K Following Journalist. NSW political correspondent for Australian Financial Review. he/him
Hugh Riminton @hughriminton
125K Followers 11K Following National Affairs Editor @10NewsFirst Grateful father, partner and Granddad. @riminton.bsky.social All views my own.
CAMERONWILSON - CROSS... @cameronwilson
30K Followers 5K Following internet explorer @crikey_news I DO NOT USE TWITTER EVERYTHING HERE IS CROSSPOSTED FROM OTHER PLATFORMS send tips: [email protected] he/him
Rachel Withers @rachelrwithers
20K Followers 2K Following Freelance writer. Bylines @THEMONTHLY @SatPaper @Slate @voxdotcom @crikey_news Host of Spin Cycle on @3RRRFM
Ash @AshPolitik
16K Followers 13K Following I talk politics. Opinionated, greying, fitness enthusiast, proud father, husband & true believer! Progressive Patriot! Catters!⚪💙 Ideologically Pragmatic💡
Peter Murphy @PeterWMurphy1
28K Followers 6K Following #HumanRights #ClimateAction #auspol #USPolitics #journalism #SciFi #books #history 🇺🇦 🇵🇸 🇱🇧 https://t.co/yFBYqyoMex
William Bowe @PollBludger
11K Followers 1K Following Editor of the Australian elections and polling site https://t.co/viVLhtrPWY. Does a bit of work for @climate200 and @9NewsAus. Also at https://t.co/SljqFRe00s
alessandro @alessan31441641
2 Followers 38 Following
Bobby O'Kon @BobbyOKon173081
43 Followers 3K Following
racsonia @racsonia
0 Followers 1K Following
Wyatt Williams @Someone8557295
23 Followers 557 Following
William Parker @wdhparker
116 Followers 290 Following PhD student at @LSEEcon. Previously research assistant @STICERD_LSE & @CEP_LSE. Interested in applied micro, esp. health inequality.
Hudson @hudsonxharding
318 Followers 6K Following im.migrant | new order tragic | non-binary | trans feminine | she/her | they/them | #actuallyautistic | RT/likes≠endo | stay beautiful x
Mark Ewins 🌱 🇺�... @Fitboy08
486 Followers 3K Following Dog dad. Opinions are my own. Hates bullies. Used to lean left until I saw the pro Hamas movement. Animal advocate. Which means I don’t eat them. Vego 👍
Election Maps Austral... @ElectionMapsAus
3 Followers 53 Following Maps, polls and results for local, state and federal elections in the Commonwealth of Australia (Non Partisan)
Gareth Williams @GarethBW
15 Followers 208 Following
Neil Phillips @Freddyboy2
78 Followers 608 Following
zac bacon @zac_bacon26566
89 Followers 411 Following
Juan Escobar @JCarlosGrajales
262 Followers 934 Following Men can Stop using Family Violence. Cultural connection and Spiritual Healing is the way to address it.
Marilyn Birt BSc, IAC... @MazBirt
327 Followers 2K Following Making it real! Intuitive Mentoring. Global SuperConsciousness. Vice Chair of British Computer Society (BCS) SM-ITAM Service Management IT Asset Management
XX W @XiangWang134033
1 Followers 37 Following
Gerzinga @gerzinga
63 Followers 742 Following Earthling, nobody special, but above all servant of the King
Mark Lyall @RealMarkLyall
0 Followers 5 Following
Peter Chojnacki @choj868
47 Followers 657 Following chef from gippsland, love food, hangin out with mates and good tunes
Diyanatul Shukor @diyanatul_s
1 Followers 145 Following
Lloyd Millar @Lloydrough
1K Followers 3K Following End the mafia..End the Fed! The psychopaths are still in charge. #Bitcoin = Gold 2.0 #Fake news = #Fake democracy
George Carter @georgeacarter1
38 Followers 202 Following
kedar basnet @kedar_basnet
12 Followers 410 Following
Rowan Gould @redovanni
64 Followers 1K Following
Michael’s Election ... @mikeselections
0 Followers 24 Following Predicting Australian election results based on polls and data
Arslan Ahmad @arxi0094
10 Followers 105 Following
jinnv @JinnvSuperman3x
1 Followers 615 Following
Andrew 🧢⬆️ @andrewdsmith89
579 Followers 823 Following
Kon K @K969906K
3 Followers 17 Following
Hariaragla @HarjyotSandhu2
143 Followers 990 Following
Samuel Watson @thebestsamuel
136 Followers 111 Following
Rhino734964092 @Rhino734964092
1K Followers 2K Following I went out walking through streets paved with Gold Lifted some stones saw skin and bones!
Vineyard Paul @VineyardPaul
2K Followers 663 Following N° 1 fan of #Wine from #Tasmania 🍇Viticulture and Winemaking Officer for @WineTasmania 🍷Wifee makes @QuietMutiny.
charlie @charlie162743
0 Followers 148 Following
g @jahridz
19 Followers 367 Following
Guy Lewis @louiealbs
11 Followers 343 Following
islamic Jacinta Price... @katterism_
375 Followers 542 Following spreading islamic prophecy to queenslanders since 1999
Seafoxlrt616 🔶🇭... @Seafoxlrt615
58 Followers 736 Following 🇭🇰 19 - he/him - 🏳️🌈 - social liberal - student
justherefortheelectio... @hereforelexion
1 Followers 59 Following
Sam @s21291205
23 Followers 485 Following
Trudie Hopgood @_FallingUpward
547 Followers 1K Following Aussie Nomad. Mum to Ripley 🐕 ❤ Enneagram 9 🤦♀️
Antony Green - electi... @AntonyGreenElec
216K Followers 155 Following The new title of Election Analyst Emeritus as I slowly slip the surly bonds of the ABC and touch the face of retirement. Tweets are all my own views.
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
19K Followers 1K Following Psephologist, polling analyst/transparency advocate, electoral consultant, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Auth KB Mt Stuart
WAEC @WAElections
3K Followers 31 Following Welcome to the official Twitter page for the WA Electoral Commission – keeping you updated on all the latest electoral news and events in Western Australia.
Oceania Elects @OceaniaElects
14K Followers 70 Following 📊🗺🗳 Poll aggregation and election analysis in Oceania 🤝 @EuropeElects @AsiaElects @AfricaElect @AmericaElige ☕ Support us: buy us a https://t.co/z1t75AesoM
Freshwater Strategy @tweetfreshwater
287 Followers 162 Following We transform uncertainty into opportunity using empirical strategies
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
607K Followers 1K Following Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
448K Followers 1K Following chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
118K Followers 499 Following independent data-driven journalist. part-time pollster. author of the book & Substack STRENGTH IN NUMBERS. formerly 538, @theeconomist. community gardener
James Kanagasooriam @JamesKanag
14K Followers 2K Following Pollster. Chief Research Officer of @focaldataHQ + Honorary Professor @UofGlasgow | Board of @ukonward and @TenebraeChoir | https://t.co/29hrpARjh5
Pyxis Polling & Insig... @pyxisinsights
149 Followers 10 Following Strategic insights based on strong samples and analysis. Conducts Newspoll for the Australian and provides accurate strategic guidance for private clients.
NSW Electoral Commiss... @NSWElectoralCom
3K Followers 342 Following We deliver elections, regulate & educate electoral participants and third-party lobbyists in NSW. Sign up for election reminders: https://t.co/ycpPexvujc
AEC ✏️ @AusElectoralCom
52K Followers 230 Following We run one of the nation's largest, most complex and scrutinised peacetime logistical events. #ausvotes 🇦🇺 Authorised by the Electoral Commissioner, Canberra
VEC @electionsvic
7K Followers 412 Following The official X account of the Victorian Electoral Commission. T&Cs: https://t.co/k3KmYnELi1
Sorceror43 @sorceror43
1K Followers 37 Following Very keen on polls and elections. Labor supporter who also follows US and UK politics and Melbourne Storm in the NRL
Simon Jackman @SimonJackman
5K Followers 1K Following Hon Prof Univ Sydney: political scientist, data scientist; US Studies Centre CEO (16-22), Stanford Univ (96-16), ANU, Chicago (94-96), reasonable musician
Martin Burgess @martintburgess
277 Followers 631 Following @[email protected] Data scientist for good. Creator https://t.co/Rxx637sDzh. Work @raisely. https://t.co/Z9VNqoD8bW
Mark @Mark_Graph
5K Followers 2K Following Interests: Data. Python. Economics. Social Policy. Politics. Australia. Caveats: Not financial advice. Opinions my own. Likes ≠ endorsement.
Ethan @EthanOfHouseK
265 Followers 126 Following Servicing the interest on my sleep debt. Can't tell if I'm paying down the principal due to the complexity of somniacial instruments. @[email protected]
The Tally Room @thetallyroom
5K Followers 171 Following The Tally Room is an electoral analysis website covering elections in Australia, New Zealand and occasionally other countries, run by @benraue
Australian Polling Co... @auspollcouncil
345 Followers 12 Following The Australian Polling Council has established a Code of Conduct for published polling. Members commit to transparency - see https://t.co/8l9hnqq9Rj
Armarium Interreta @ArmariumI
266 Followers 16 Following A planner, a chaos demon, an enabler and a prolific insomniac. We didn't think just one apple of knowledge would be very useful, so we're after the whole tree.
William Bowe @PollBludger
11K Followers 1K Following Editor of the Australian elections and polling site https://t.co/viVLhtrPWY. Does a bit of work for @climate200 and @9NewsAus. Also at https://t.co/SljqFRe00sTrends for United States
You might like
