Big Nasdaq Guy @bignasdaqguy
I trade Nasdaq Futures Joined November 2012-
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MARKETS SEE FED CUT IN SEPTEMBER AS POWELL FLAGS RISING RISKS Powell signaled that the balance of risks is shifting, with downside pressures on employment becoming more evident and tariff-driven price effects feeding into inflation. While stressing that stable inflation…
🚨 TRADERS RESUME FULLY PRICING IN TWO FED RATE CUTS BY YEAR-END
*POWELL: SHIFTING BALANCE OF RISKS MAY WARRANT ADJUSTING POLICY
*POWELL: SITUATION SUGGESTS DOWNSIDE RISKS TO EMPLOYMENT RISING
*TRADERS ADD TO BETS ON FED INTEREST-RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER
📊 FED SEPTEMBER DECISION — THE MARKET IS SHIFTING Prediction markets Kalshi now show: •✅ 25bps cut → 68%, but trending down •⚖ Hold rates → 34%, and rising steadily •🔻 Cut >25bps → 4%, stable near zero Over the past two weeks, confidence in a September cut has…
US BANKRUPTCIES SURGE PAST 2020 PANDEMIC LEVELS: BUSINESS INSIDER
MARKET ODDS FOR THE SEPTEMBER FED MEETING HAVE SHIFTED SHARPLY. For the first time, traders now see a higher probability of a 50bps rate cut (11%) than of no cut at all (10%), according to Kalshi data. The overwhelming favorite remains a 25bps cut at 81%, but the balance between…
🚨 FED RATE CUT BETS SURGE AFTER JULY CPI DATA Following the latest July inflation report showing US consumer prices rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year—slightly below expectations—and core CPI rose 0.3% M/M and 3.1% Y/Y, traders have sharply increased their bets…
*US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2% *US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.7% Y/Y; EST. +2.8% *US JULY CORE CPI RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3% *US JULY CORE CPI RISES 3.1% Y/Y; EST. +3.0%
U.S. JUL CPI +0.2% (CONSENSUS +0.2%) , EXFOOD/ENERGY +0.3% (CONSENSUS +0.3%) U.S. JUL CPI YEAR-OVER-YEAR +2.7% (CONSENSUS +2.8%) , EXFOOD/ENERGY +3.1% (CONSENSUS +3.0%)
JULY 2025 CPI FORECAST: 2.7% YOY 📈 Headline inflation is forecast to rise in July as tariff-induced price pressures become more apparent, experts say. Economists expect CPI to hit 2.8% y/y (from 2.7% in June) and core CPI to edge up to 3.0%. Shelter and energy remain key…
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 $1.1 trillion added to the US stock market today.
🚨 BESSENT: NOT EXPECTING A RATE CUT TODAY FROM FED
TRUMP: FED MUST LOWER THE RATE
FED WEEK: DECISION EXPECTED, GUIDANCE CRITICAL Kalshi assigns a 97% chance of no rate change (holding at 4.25–4.50%) at the July 30 meeting. The real focus: forward guidance. 🔍 Market expects 2 cuts by Jan 2026, but timing is uncertain. The dot plot and Powell’s tone will…
*TRUMP: EU TO BUY HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF USD IN MILITARY GEAR *TRUMP ON EU TRADE: EU WILL MAKE $600 BLN IN U.S. INVESTMENTS *TRUMP ON EU TRADE: EU WILL BUY $150BLN IN U.S. ENERGY
Trump announces a trade deal between the U.S. and the EU. As part of the agreement, the EU will purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and commit to investing $600 billion more than previously planned
Trump announces a trade deal between the U.S. and the EU. As part of the agreement, the EU will purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and commit to investing $600 billion more than previously planned https://t.co/haIdEbHMvO
*TRUMP ON EU: BIGGEST DEAL EVER REACHED *TRUMP: EU WILL AGREE TO BUY US 750B WORTH OF ENERGY
*TRUMP: WE HAVE REACHED A DEAL WITH EU
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