Institutional grade reports and real time signals for funds, family offices and market professionals by @swissblock_ and @woonomic. Zug, SwitzerlandJoined January 2018
Jackson Hole left its mark.
$BTC has shifted from a Low Risk Regime to instability.
Unless the Risk Off Signal stabilizes, upside stays capped.
Holding $112.2K could reopen $121.6K...
but a slide into a High Risk Regime would put $110K and below back in play.
Bitcoin Liquidity Recovery: A Constructive Signal
On-chain liquidity is strengthening.
Every prior recovery has preceded sustained $BTC rallies.
Swissblock strategy has shifted → Aggressive allocation.
⚡️ Liquidity recovery mirrors past bullish setups.
Bias: Upside.
Is Jackson Hole a BTC risk igniter?
Historically, the Fed’s symposium sparks volatility, triggering Risk Off signal and short-term turbulence in $BTC.
One thing to consider: this time, both risk indicators come from stability, not disturbance.
If history rhymes, Powell’s…
The abrupt Structure Shift (1) to bearish flagged a short-term reversal.
Now $BTC is testing support, shaping a potential bottom.
Unlike Feb–Apr (red zone), the Risk Oscillator (2) hasn’t broken.
The structure holds, making another BTC leg up more likely before a deeper trend…
The signals aren’t subtle:
🔸Structure Shift flipped firmly bearish (-0.84) after the August downside shock — one of 2025’s sharpest breaks.
🔸Optimal signal slipped near zero, showing no directional conviction, just macro + leverage clean-up.
For now, BTC is consolidating under heavy bearish pressure.
A bullish build-up will take time — and only happens if price defends support.
Lose it, and the door opens to deeper downside hunting.
Everyone chases the shiny object.
$ETH moved while eyes were on $BTC — the reverse can happen.
Our Bitcoin Fundamental Index shows us that big $BTC moves after Redistribution 🔴 play out in 3 steps:
1) Recovery
2) Accumulation
3) Expansion
→ We’re between 2 & 3.
Bitcoin hit a new ATH at $124.5K, but failed to extend higher.
Momentum is positive, yet today’s drop flipped structure to bearish.
Bearish pressure is present, and without structural alignment, rallies risk being short-lived.
x.com/swissblock__/s…
Bitcoin hit a new ATH at $124.5K, but failed to extend higher.
Momentum is positive, yet today’s drop flipped structure to bearish.
Bearish pressure is present, and without structural alignment, rallies risk being short-lived.
x.com/swissblock__/s… https://t.co/5HRW039cm2
Bitcoin is hovering near its ATH zone — and the setup is still structurally bullish.
🔸Since the Risk Off Signal stabilized in low-risk regime, BTC is up +29% from ~$94K to ~$121K.
🔸No signs yet of a shift to high-risk regime, the condition that historically precedes deeper…
Never count out Bitcoin dominance.
ETH is outperforming now, but multi-year support remains intact and unbroken (Red Zone).
For over two years, dominance has climbed in a steady, orderly fashion, this isn’t something that collapses overnight.
If it moves lower, it will do so…
Bitcoin is edging closer to its ATH… what happens next?
🔸We’re watching a regime where Network Growth (red) is high (~82) and Liquidity mid (~52) with price (gray) near highs.
🔸This mix favors continuation if Liquidity (blue) turns up and clears (~50-60): fuel for another…
$BTC has shifted from bearish pause → bullish consolidation.
A push forward is in play, if momentum flips positive.
First step: Break & hold $117K with strength.
x.com/bitcoinvector/…
$BTC has shifted from bearish pause → bullish consolidation.
A push forward is in play, if momentum flips positive.
First step: Break & hold $117K with strength.
x.com/bitcoinvector/… https://t.co/eHLCkD79Q8
Momentum is charging.
$BTC consolidation frustrates the impatient, but this is how upside builds.
Structure acts as the base of strength.
Cooling momentum often precedes re-acceleration.
When buyers return, moves are explosive.
x.com/swissblock__/s…
Momentum is charging.
$BTC consolidation frustrates the impatient, but this is how upside builds.
Structure acts as the base of strength.
Cooling momentum often precedes re-acceleration.
When buyers return, moves are explosive.
x.com/swissblock__/s… https://t.co/RoVN8hhQUK
$BTC fundamentals are strengthening.
Liquidity may be paused, but network growth is accelerating.
This isn’t a breakdown—it’s a buildup.
When macro liquidity returns, Bitcoin is already loaded.
x.com/Negentropic_/s…
$BTC fundamentals are strengthening.
Liquidity may be paused, but network growth is accelerating.
This isn’t a breakdown—it’s a buildup.
When macro liquidity returns, Bitcoin is already loaded.
x.com/Negentropic_/s… https://t.co/irmhg1OJRs
As long as risk signals remain stable, drawdowns are opportunities—not threats.
The last corrections have not triggered a high-risk regime.
Today’s environment still favors buy-the-dip, not trend reversal.
x.com/bitcoinvector/…
As long as risk signals remain stable, drawdowns are opportunities—not threats.
The last corrections have not triggered a high-risk regime.
Today’s environment still favors buy-the-dip, not trend reversal.
x.com/bitcoinvector/… https://t.co/W0KlYfvqMz
No breakout, but no breakdown either.
🔸Momentum didn’t ignite—price couldn’t even break $119K.
🔸BTC retested the former ATH zone at $112K.
What’s next?
Here’s a clue: structure remains bullish.
x.com/bitcoinvector/…
No breakout, but no breakdown either.
🔸Momentum didn’t ignite—price couldn’t even break $119K.
🔸BTC retested the former ATH zone at $112K.
What’s next?
Here’s a clue: structure remains bullish.
x.com/bitcoinvector/… https://t.co/cMamioStyt
All quiet on the Bitcoin front:
🔸BTC tests support at $114K.
🔸Risk Off Signal: 100 days in a low-risk regime.
🔸Risk Oscillator flat for weeks — no shift in pressure.
We’re still in a low-risk regime, and indicator stability is the key. 👇
x.com/bitcoinvector/…
All quiet on the Bitcoin front:
🔸BTC tests support at $114K.
🔸Risk Off Signal: 100 days in a low-risk regime.
🔸Risk Oscillator flat for weeks — no shift in pressure.
We’re still in a low-risk regime, and indicator stability is the key. 👇
x.com/bitcoinvector/… https://t.co/FDSQJAgyJb
For reference:
🔸From Oct 2020 to Apr 2021, the Risk Off Signal stayed at zero for 197 days.
🔸That stretch of stability powered a historic run (+385%).
🔸We’re halfway there.
Unless the indicators shift into a high-risk regime, just wait for momentum to reignite.
Bitcoin is pressing against resistance, keeping bears on edge.
🔸Structure remains bullish, but momentum isn’t igniting.
🔸A breakout above $120.5K confirms continuation
🔸$112.5K is key support.
Until then, dips offer opportunity, but don't go all-in in one shot.
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