Deep Inference @DeepInference
the more I learn… the more I realize how much I don’t know - Einstein. Partner of @aionanalytics aionanalytics.com Joined January 2025-
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No way this is the guy that called this selloff back in August
What Jane Street has planned for retail this October:
Your weekend reading is ready. The Week Ahead: Leaving the Weak Behind. Community Research tab in the terminal.
Time to set the record straight again. September 24. Crash probability on the S&P had nearly quadrupled in three weeks. I said the crowd was looking at the wrong number and we’d grade it over 20 trading days. October 2. Nasdaq at a new high. I said the smoke was thicker and the
“As always, thank you for flying with @AionAnalytics”
Just remember the sequence of events and how people react Proactive > reactive
Probably the best addition to the terminal, allows us to do a more in depth analysis
Your weekend reading is ready. The Week Ahead: Leaving the Weak Behind. Community Research tab in the terminal.
Time to set the record straight again. September 24. Crash probability on the S&P had nearly quadrupled in three weeks. I said the crowd was looking at the wrong number and we’d grade it over 20 trading days. October 2. Nasdaq at a new high. I said the smoke was thicker and the window closes October 22. See you then. It’s October 22. VIX up more than 30% in a day. Indices sold off. Semis unwound. The AI trade came apart again. All of it inside the window the models flagged while the index printed highs and the timeline told me they hate me. Where there’s smoke there’s fire. We found it. Most of what I see next goes to Aion research now. But I’ll give you three hints below. Somebody has to, and it clearly isn’t going to be the people calling for blue skies at the end of September. 🧵
Six sessions ago I timestamped our crash probability read on the S&P. Since then the Nasdaq has hit a new high, and the crash probability went up anyway. Breadth is worse. Credit volatility is moving while the VIX sleeps. 14 sessions left to find the fire. x.com/i/article/2106…
@Sandmannxxyyxx @TradableAstro hahahah
Just remember the sequence of events and how people react Proactive > reactive
Also congrats on all the furus flipping their bias this week after the market already fell off a cliff. Wonder how that works itself out, a tale as old as time.
@atxatxatx123 @LogicalThesis @TradableAstro Thoughts are in Community Research in the Aion Terminal
The world of larpers
hmmm seems like everyone is sharing their drawdown as opposed to their gains Protect your gains at all costs people. Risk management > everything
Volatility may be minor but its been a Messtober.. I will see you guys when I make it out.
I mean… not to make a joke out of it, because it stops being funny when you realize just how badly this guy fumbled it. And I’ll give him his props in both directions. >99% of people will probably never experience the kind of gains this guy did. But that’s the problem with ignoring risk. I’ve tried to point out rising risks on here more than almost anyone, even when nobody wants to hear it. Making the money is one thing. Surviving long enough to keep it is another.
They’re going to make permabulls homeless this October. Mark it.
@stepnotonpets Yea it’s @strictrope
@OmnesMoriemur Sorry to hear that man, and I think it’s getting there.
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