Gary Black🚀 @gary_black_OO
Managing Partner, The Future Fund LLC, SEC registered investment adviser. CEO/CIO/PM. https://t.co/FaOYjbSi4j garydblack. Disclosure: https://t.co/qsirMmZ4as thefuturefund.com Chicago, IL Joined March 2011-
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@WholeMarsBlog Expect more analysts to cut $TSLA 1Q and FY’24 delivery and EPS forecasts. TSLA YoY auto rev growth likely to go negative for only the second time in TSLA history (only other period 2020 2Q - Covid).
@AEONde Late-2025 production which implies early-2026 first delivs.
What ails $TSLA? It’s increasingly difficult to justify a 55-60x P/E on a company with single-digit YoY sales growth until next gen 25K vehicle delivs start in 2026.
@thejefflutz @Oneil1B China 1Q insured registrations are +2.8% YoY but have to avg 15,500/week over the last three weeks to beat 2023 1Q.
Lead $TSLA story on Bloomberg tonight: “Tesla Investors Sound Off to Judge Who Voided Musk Mega-Pay Plan” @TeslaBoomerMama
@thejefflutz My 2025 $TSLA eps is +37% above 2024 EPS based on my 2025 TSLA delivs forecast that is +12% YoY vs 2024.
Let’s be real. $TSLA now trading at 44x forward eps - it’s lowest P/E since the 2023 1H lows (median 58x). We (and others) have been talking about 1Q WS deliv ests being too high for two weeks now so buy side consensus could already be discounting a 425-440K 1Q result. The San…
Let’s be real. $TSLA now trading at 44x forward eps - it’s lowest P/E since the 2023 1H lows (median 58x). We (and others) have been talking about 1Q WS deliv ests being too high for two weeks now so buy side consensus could already be discounting a 425-440K 1Q result. The San… https://t.co/8H4b3RLRNp
Alternate view of $TSLA China Ins registrations. Source: @Tslachan.
$TSLA China posted a relatively modest 13K insured registrations for the week of Mar 4-10. With three weeks left in 1Q, TSLA insured registrations are 90K, -24.7% QoQ and +2.3%YoY. Source: @piloly
@JPSartre_NoExit If you bought $TSLA in the past three years you likely do not have have capital gains.
Many investors get confused about long term value vs near term sell discipline. Every stock you own has a current price and what you think it’s worth based on future earnings or cash flows. $TSLA is currently a $175 stock that we think is worth $250. That doesn’t mean we think…
@grifjef @sspencer_smb Our strategy as growth investors is to buy low, sell high. Unfortunately we’ve been wrong on $TSLA, which has been one of our worst performing positions since we first bought it in Aug 2021 at around $240. Since then we’ve trimmed on two occasions - once before 2023 1Q earnings…
@lysdahllars Wrong.
@Xil_llix Wrong. You obviously haven’t been following $TSLA for long. Elon said $TSLA wasn’t working on a $25K car as recently as Jan 2022. Our asks for advertising over price cuts and a $25K vehicle since at least 2020 were focused on the long term. Price cuts are a short term…
@bradsferguson As you know, I’m not one to take managements at their word, especially after Elon’s many promises over the years about timing of L4/L5 autonomy (which I didn’t buy into and have so far been right), new product launches, etc. That said, RJ and his team have consistently guided to…
Is $RIVN courting $AAPL as a potential partner?
2/ 10yrTYs now dropping after an initial surge (4.06% -2.5bp) and NDX now higher after falling sharply (+0.2%).
Feb non-farm payrolls were above expectations (+275K vs +200K exp) but Jan jobs were revised down (+229K vs +353K), Feb unemployment came in higher (3.9% vs 3.7% exp), and avg hourly income came in low (+0.1% vs +9.2%E). This data supports the bulls’ soft landing scenario, and…
Here is our updated forecast of $TSLA delivs, margins, and earnings vs WS ests. We have reduced our TSLA PT to $250, from $290. We’ve reduced our $TSLA 2024 Adj EPS to $2.70 (from $3.10). Our 2024 volume forecast is now 2,000K (+11% YoY), down from 2,100K. We are now below WS…
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@munster_gene Where are you getting your comps? This is before dealer premiums !
@garyblack00 Still trying to figure out why the price is high compared to F 150 lightning when these are real prices of them in Florida
@Jenniferhochsc2 This you? You dragged them alright!
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@ChipotleTweets playin games Got a notification for limited time free delivery. I go to checkout and my Bag Total is now $4 more 🤕 Left: Pickup Right: “Free Delivery”
FOMC Minutes notes via WSJ -Officials Said Further Rate Increases Would Be Necessary -Officials Agreed Rate Cuts Shouldn't Happen in 2023 -Officials Emphasized Need for 'Flexibility and Optionality' in Policy Decisions
"FC are tight" #JPOW - my question to the #FederalReserve why this dovish tone, why this cheeky lie, what do you anticipate? transitory disinflation, #inflation panic and hard landing? is that the reason?
unpopular opinion: CPI will be a non-event, no significant rash, not up (due to PE ratio - the air up is very thin) and especially not down (too many putts in the system - the market makers will not pay us retail) 403ish by end of week #StockMarket #CPI #crash
The markets are celebrating the better than expected CPI data but don't price in the reason for disinflation, which is the cool off in economic activity this will be reflected in earnings and therefore in equity prices.