Gary Savage @gary_savag1
President of the smart money tracker investing newsletter, and advocate for the return of common sense to a world that is badly in need of it. Joined March 2025-
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It's still fairly early in the daily cycle and I still think this trend line needs to get broken in order to clear out the last technical traders and set the stage for a multi week rally.
Stocks should be setting up for another convincing bounce today or tomorrow, but again I think you should view any rally with a grain of salt. The daily cycle is still too short and the 4 year cycle uptrend line needs to be broken before we get a true bottom.
There's going to be the temptation to buy metals back quickly. The reason is that price went up for a long time and traders have now convinced themselves price can never go down, or if it goes down it will be quick and mild. But that's not generally how markets behave. Markets…
The NYMO is only mildly oversold. This can go to -120-130 during a 4 YCL crash.
Bullish percent can go to 0 during one of these. It's at 23 right now.
We've still got further to go. The mistake many people make during a major 4 year cycle decline is they massively underestimate how far down these can go and they buy way too early. They see a deeply oversold market and they rationalize it can't get any more oversold. It can.…
Here is the 98 crash. You can see how it set the stage for the bubble that followed.
Take rallies with a grain of salt. Both the industrials and the transports have dropped below a secondary low signalling a Dow Theory sell signal. There is risk that stocks have entered a cyclical bear market. I don't think this is the end of the secular bull, but it could…
Here's what happened to the metal sector during the 2020 4 year cycle low when they finally succumbed to the selling pressure. Caution is warranted this month. There will be some violent counter trend rallies but the final bottom isn't due until the end of April or beginning of…
This is just a "what if" scenario. My current theory is that we had a slightly short 4 year cycle low back in Oct. 2022. However, if this were to crash over the next month and drop all the way back to the 200 week moving average and break the trend line then I will reconsider…
19 weeks into an intermediate cycle rally and stretched insanely far above the 200 week moving average. We are approaching (or already there) where retail traders become supremely confident price can never go down, and where professional traders become extremely nervous about…
The dollar bottomed on the FOMC meeting just as expected. Now the question is whether the rally is temporary and will roll over quickly and left translate another daily cycle or is this a larger degree bottom that will produce a multi month rally. I really have no idea at the…
We should be getting close to a top soon. Sentiment in the metals sector is becoming very bullish. I think we just need a breakout above those resistance zones in miners and silver, and a final run to maybe $3200ish in gold, to draw in the last FOMO buyers. Then smart money will…
Here we go again. The same people freaking out all over again. In case you haven't figured this out yet. Rallies have pullbacks from time to time. Silver and miners hit major resistance zones this week. They weren't going to go through those on the first try. That doesn't…
We've had a monster run since the ICL back in Dec. Price is bumping up against major resistance. The FOMC meeting today is a potential trigger event for some kind of pullback I think it is unlikely price will get through this resistance on the first attempt.
The base in silver is much much bigger. 45 years and counting. Now you see why I see $250-$500 isn't out of the question.
It took about 4 1/2 years for gold to go from its first tag of $2000 to $3000. The rally from $3000 to $4000 will occur much faster. Possibly even in a year or less. Metals are in the very early stage of a final bull market rally. One that should end in a parabolic move taking…
It took 7 weeks to break the cartel suppression at $33, but now that it has collapsed (and a potential short squeeze is beginning) there is only minor resistance at $35, and a lot of open air back to $40, $45 or even $50. And let's be honest, that's a pretty damn good looking…
The miners are predicting the suppression at $3000 and $35 isn't going to hold. What do I keep saying? Bull markets make higher highs.
Two weeks ago we were seeing calls that metals had topped because price was correcting. As long as we keep seeing this kind of sentiment the intermediate cycle will continue higher. I pointed out that this was just a normal first daily cycle correction and that higher highs…
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