Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl
Emerging Markets correspondent @FinancialTimes. This is a lot like being the Everything correspondent @FinancialTimes. ft.com London, England Joined August 2009-
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Good reminder that if South Africa's election does remove the ANC's majority next month, the constitution effectively sets a 14-day deadline to put a working coalition/minority government together. constitutionallyspeaking.co.za/the-slippery-p…
Few companies have shaped a nation the way Anglo has South Africa, for better or worse, over a century. “Fewer and fewer companies have invested in it like Anglo. It has a rapport with gov, understood lay of the land and I don’t see BHP filling that gap” ft.com/content/2d68bd…
Anglo officially rejects BHP. The offer structure (ie the South Africa spinoff) is “highly unattractive, creating substantial uncertainty and execution risk borne almost entirely by Anglo American, its shareholders and its other stakeholders,” Anglo says. otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/ang…
“It’s also important that without South Africa, Anglo is approximately the shape of BHP’s existing operations. Sticking the companies together would make BHP usefully bigger but it wouldn’t really change the investment case, nor the corporate structure.” ft.com/content/2bfe0d…
BHP has made a takeover proposal for Anglo American. Unsolicited all-share offer conditioned on Anglo demerging its stakes in Amplats and Kumba, two big South African assets. So it will be interesting to see how that goes down in South Africa… ft.com/content/df0844…
Magnificently trolly in a way for one of the world’s greatest diversified investors, which among other things used negative selection to avoid getting blown up on Wirecard, to tell off Europeans for being risk averse. on.ft.com/3Uy4PmP
So, is an EM central bank hiking after a 5% currency drop over four months a good sign (vigilant) or a bad one (insecure). ft.com/content/e3f75d…
Dorset politics in the FT! Unfortunate for the “local conservatives” that my fellow Dorset folk don’t seem enthused by such policies as getting £4mn in HS2 cancellation scraps to fund council pothole repairs. on.ft.com/3UmlDwR
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@AlecuRussell caught with not one but two copies of my book #WhoWillRuleSA 😅☺️
@jsphctrl Agree re institutional ticks and habits - nonetheless it’s a good option for them.
#XMen97 Spoilers ahead:
I argue debt relief after first use of Russian assets.
Creditors need to stand up and shout out for Ukraine. open.substack.com/pub/timothyash…
I don't think mamady doumbouya knows where tigray is - I suspect the reason for using wagner might be "money"
The ‘Entente Roscolonial’ - interesting term from a new RUSI report to describe Russia reconstituting its post-Wagner policy in Africa on a more formal basis (and more allied to elite extraction?). static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Unc…
Lot of snobs on here safely ensconced in their NYC media bubble. Now let me tell you what real people actually are into these days, based on my recent travels to Reykjavik, Addis Ababa, Montevideo, Malacca, Jaipur, The Hague, Brasilia, Glasgow (Montana), Bremen, and Amman.
@jsphctrl My somewhat informed take: ANC will drop below 50, but not much below. DA will remain largely stagnant at low 20s. EFF hugely overestimated - will do extremely well to reach 15%. Remaining 15% to also-rans.
@jsphctrl Its also a weighing scale issue. The amount of money EM distressed investors have is finite and the size of the Chiense RE default is massive. So clearing prices low. I think it was the same issue with Argentina.
it’s crazy to me that Peter David simultaneously has a go fund me running for his extremely serious health problems, and also a movie featuring Spider-Man 2099, a character he co-created with Rick Leonardi, was nominated for an Oscar and also had a box office of like 700 mil.
In this week’s Sunday Times: “Books to look forward to this year”. My first solo book which will be launching soon! 😃😃😃
Massive congrats to @HyunSongShin, who's been chosen to succeed Claudio Borio as head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the BIS. bis.org/press/p240112.…
@jsphctrl The cutoff date for the question whether a dispute exists is the day of filing of the application. After that of course a dispute arises in court. And on the face of it, SA hardly made an effort to talk to Israel at all.
@jsphctrl Boreholes, solar power & in many areas people resorting to septic tanks/public waste disposal. Can also contract independent water/electricity meter readers. Private security has been prolific for years but now also widespread in townships, at times running protection rackets.
@jsphctrl Had a very close fire on the Northcliff Koppie last year while we had no electricity and water. ADT managed to contain it - the Rosebank Fire Brigade arrived about 5 hours later to put out the embers. Very happy our security company SCP now has an even better fire engine.
My new retirement plan is to just keep flying on the 737 Max until I get an insane payout from Boeing