Lisa Abramowic. (PRIVATE) @lisaabrahamwix1

Co-host of @surveillance; Sign up for the newsletter here: https://t.co/DNCV25L4xC... New York Joined May 2014

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

8 months ago

This Friday we'll get an update to the way the BLS measures job forecasts. The likely takeaway: "that the labor market was much weaker than thought last year," say BI analysts, who say job growth for 2024 was likely below the level needed to stabilize the unemployment rate.

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

8 months ago

Gold prices are breaking out to new record highs, even as the dollar weakens. The precious metal has been gaining steadily this year whether or not stocks have been up or down a given day. It's up almost 10% so far in 2025.

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

8 months ago

US futures are lower today after Trump announced tariffs, but the move isn’t that dramatic. A possible reason for this: traders don’t believe the tariffs will stick. GS analysts “believe there is a substantial probability that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be temporary.”

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

8 months ago

“Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are unlikely to be sustained:” UBS’s Mark Haefele

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

9 months ago

On a similar note: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sees the strong dollar likely to drive a big divide in S&P earnings this season, with domestically oriented sectors outshining those with large international revenues. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

9 months ago

A bad day in the bond market: US 30-year yields ended the day at the highest level since Nov. 2023, while 10-year yields closed at the highest since April 2024. There are rising worries about a repeat of 2022, where neither bonds or stocks worked. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

9 months ago

Yields on 10-yr Treasuries are now the highest vs 2-yr rates since 2022. It's unclear whether this is a healthy normalization - a reversion back to the typical relationship of long-term yields being higher than short-term ones - or a sign of stickier inflation and deficit fears

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

9 months ago

The Fed is taking a hawkish approach, with Chair Powell saying the 25bp rate cut was a "closer call" with inflation surprising to the upside this year. The euro is taking it on the chin...

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

10 months ago

Bond vigilantes have their eyes on France in the face of government turmoil, a growing deficit and weaker economic data. The gap between 10-yr yields in France and Germany is the widest since 2012. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

10 months ago

Investor commentary: - “It could well be that we end up with a spread to bunds at the level of Italy.” - “One can avoid French bonds because the fundamentals of Spain seem to be good." Aside from Germany, "we will look at Spanish and Italian bonds first.”

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

10 months ago

DB's George Saravelos: "The softer the market reaction, the greater the likelihood of more tariffs....The first Trump administration showed that the more benign the market reaction, the greater the likelihood of further escalation."

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

10 months ago

RBC's Lori Calvasina sees a range of 6,200 to 6,700 for where the S&P 500 will close next year. Scott Rubner of Goldman Sachs sees the S&P hitting 6,200 by yearend. "I don't think that many will be eating turkey on Thursday and then shorting the S&P."

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

10 months ago

A record high of 51.4% of US households surveyed by the Conference Board say that stock prices will move higher, via Apollo's Torsten Slok. apolloacademy.com/us-households-…

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

10 months ago

The euro is seemingly in free fall. Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos this morning after surprisingly weak PMIs: "We remain very bearish on EUR/USD. Trump is only 30% priced...Germany at risk of secular stagnation."

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

10 months ago

U.S. equity ETFs and mutual funds drew nearly $56 billion in the week ended Wednesday, the second-largest weekly haul in records going back to 2008: EPFR. Such funds have drawn inflows for seven consecutive months, the longest streak since 2021. wsj.com/finance/invest…

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Steve Chiavarone, CFA @schiavarone

10 months ago

@lisaabramowicz1 We are at 7,000 for ‘25.

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

10 months ago

I’m really struck by how big the presence from China is here at APEC. Biden is coming to represent the US, but he’s a lame duck president and Trump is the elephant in the room. Meanwhile, China’s Xi is inaugurating a huge, modernized port here that they helped finance.

Bloomberg TV @BloombergTV

10 months ago

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

11 months ago

HSBC’s Steven Major: “We shift our end-2025 10-year US Treasury forecast to 3.5% (from 3.0%) reflecting uncertainty over the floor…Our conviction for EM local rates is moved down to neutral given high US real rates.”

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

11 months ago

Deutsche Bank's George Saravelo ranked the countries that are likely to be hardest hit by potential US tariffs, based on their economic reliance on US trade and potential scope of new levies. The top three hardest hit: Mexico, Vietnam and Canada.

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Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

11 months ago

Fed funds traders are now pricing in a 60% chance of a December rate cut, down from a 94% chance at the end of October. Ex-Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida said on @BloombergTV that it's increasingly possible the Fed will skip the December rate cut.