Lawrence G. Opt @optMstra
The Option Strategist - trader, money manager, author & publisher of option trading newsletters. Stocks / futures / crypto. Disclosures: https://t.co/8iLcnIdqpY optionstrategist.com NJ Joined June 2020-
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Article coming by me about the potential bullish setup Sensei
$SPX remains stuck in a prolonged trading range — and the signals are split. Bearish: put-call ratios, potential $VIX sell signal. Bullish: breadth & spike-peak buy signal. After months of stalemate, the breakout could be decisive. Read more: open.substack.com/pub/optionstra…
Larry McMillan Market Update Thank you @optstrategist ! youtu.be/RTpjdSTDk6I?si…
just rewatched it I trade VIX Options slightly Differently with ITM x OTM call BwB's ratio sometimes depending on the setup (and manage as time passes and VIX / VX move) Great stuff as always, OG
Before trading $VXX, $SVXY, or $VIX options, understand what you truly own. Futures structure. Discounts. Inversions. Roll mechanics. We cover VIX futures, options, ETFs/ETNs, and practical strategies for speculation and protection here: open.substack.com/pub/optionstra…
just rewatched it I trade VIX Options slightly Differently with ITM x OTM call BwB's ratio sometimes depending on the setup (and manage as time passes and VIX / VX move) Great stuff as always, OG
One way or another. Stairs on the way up elevator shaft on the way down.
When a market refuses to break out, the indicators rarely agree. $SPX remains confined to its range. Breadth strong. Put-call ratios bearish. Volatility mixed. Eventually, this resolves. 🔗open.substack.com/pub/optionstra…
@aztecs99 @optstrategist agreed
@optstrategist Holy shoot! I was like look at this guy video, what does he know. Then realized its the GOAT himself. Thanks for the great book! You should have way more followers
thru this level now, important to watch the closing level on the week, @RyanDetrick @optstrategist
@aztecs99 @optstrategist I do have it, but need to dust it off! Definitely not good, but did happen last year as well.
SPX 500 trading at the dec lows --- 6720. @optstrategist
Today's Larry McMillan Market Update- Thank you @optstrategist ! And thank you for the years of your rock solid informational / educational foundation so many of us have benefited from- Thank you Sir youtu.be/7xy89tkGkCw?is…
We here at STRyNG grew up in the shadow of the Twin Towers. That day my dad took me to see the smoke billowing from many miles away in Morris Plains, NJ, a place where a memorial stands today. 🇺🇸 NEVER FORGET 🇺🇸
This was a great convo, if you missed it, catch it in the link below! 👇
Yesterday, I joined the team at @tastyliveshow to talk markets, 0DTE options, broken-wing butterflies, and how my trading has evolved over 50+ years. I’m still trading, still learning, and still having fun doing it. Watch the full conversation: youtu.be/EAfZR3qmdJo
It was an honor having @optstrategist on the @tastyliveshow today. We met once earlier in my career and this was a full circle moment. Author of one of the foremost books one options. Here’s some 💎he dropped:
That deterioration has mattered. After comparable NYSE high-low signals, the S&P averaged -1.1% over two weeks, with only 35% of periods positive.
New 52-week Lows on the NYSE topped 100 for the second straight day, and exceeded New Highs both days. That stops out our long position and reverses the indicator to a sell signal. With $SPX near all-time highs, seeing New Lows expand this quickly is not a good sign.
VIX Seasonality from @optstrategist optionstrategist.substack.com/p/that-old-fam…
Worth reading Larry's July 17 article. I have been commenting on his A+ work pointing out this seasonal low for years. Larry does some of the best work I know on VIX, and volatility in general!
History suggests volatility's quietest days may be ending. Learn why August has repeatedly marked the beginning of $VIX's seasonal climb and how traders can position for it. 🔗open.substack.com/pub/optionstra…
🧠 VIX is math, not a stock. That’s why I don’t chart it like NVDA or SPX with cute little trendlines and “breakout” arrows. VIX is derived from SPX option prices. It is a volatility calculation — not a company, not a balance sheet, not a normal buyer/seller auction. 📌 But VIX levels still matter. Because volatility has regimes. Low vol tends to stay low… until it doesn’t. High vol tends to cluster… then eventually cools. That’s volatility clustering and mean reversion in plain English. Calm can persist. Panic can persist. But neither is permanent. 🌊 Rough VIX regime map: 13 = calm/compression 16 = caution returning 18–20 = hedging demand waking up 20+ = different tape The mistake is treating VIX like a stock chart. The edge is using VIX levels to understand SPX behavior, expected move, dealer hedging, and whether the market is pricing calm or reaching for protection. VIX is not the trade. VIX is the weather report. You still have to drive the car.
An addendum to that last post. When I was starting out trading, doing a mentorship under Larry McMillan @optstrategist (2008), he once said to me, "Better to be a holder than a trader." I didn't post this screenshot this morning ... but premarket ... some traders were already holders ... short puts/long calls.
Prepare to freak. Over the weekend, we discussed the Cboe's provision of market maker-informed data on ~10 minute intervals. This morning at 09:12, the news wires released word that there is progress on ending the Iran war. Remember 09:12. The market pops. You wonder, was there
More evidence of the quiet state of vol markets. Sometimes things can get too quiet.
The 20-day historical volatilities of the various $VIX futures remain at extremely low levels — an overbought condition that can turn bearish once those HVs begin to rise.
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