OddsStats @0ddsStats
Retired finance professional. I can't see the future and neither can you; anyone who says different has something to sell. NOTHING I SAY IS INVESTMENT ADVICE. oddstats.substack.com Joined March 2019-
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QQQ set a new 26-trading-day low on a -2.75% day for the 7th time during the 0DTE era. And where was QQQ 6 months later? +33.8% +14.8% +21.4% +14.6% +15.5% +5.2%
Well, holy shit. At one point today, QQQ was down -7.99% from a peak set within the past 12 days. Would you like to know how QQQ did the "next day" the last 6 times the same thing happened? -2.0% -2.0% -0.8% -6.2% -2.2% -1.1%
Today ▪ SPY was down at least -1.1% ▪QQQ was down at least -2.5% ▪ TLT was up at least +1.8% ▪ VIX closed under 20.00 That... Had never happened... In the history of the market... Until today.
Here's the last time the S&P Index (500 stocks since 1957) closed <this far> away from all time highs.
Do you guys want to hear something fucking crazy? Today, on a positive SPX day, the entire daily range was within yesterday's OPEN/CLOSE candle body. Whatever. That's not the weird part. [1/3]
What's weird is, this exact candle type has now happened during ▪ the third week of October ▪ just before an American election ▪ for FIVE STRAIGHT ELECTIONS [2/3]
Who wants to guess how low the odds are of the event you're counting on happening this week?
Here's the last time the S&P Index (500 stocks since 1957) closed <this far> away from all time highs.
October 19th has fallen on a Monday five times since 1987 (#6 is in a couple days). Here are the SPX daily returns for those sessions. -1.6% +0.0% +0.9% +0.6% +0.8% I hope you find a way to recover from this sort of carnage.
VIX closed Friday 4.49 pts above its average close the past 50 trading days. This is the 4th time that's ever happened on a Friday in October when SPX was down at least -1% that day. And how did SPX do going forward after the other 3 events in history? Really. Fucking. Well.
VIX just spent 50+ days fully under 20 before seeing a mid-day spike at least 3.00+ higher than the highest point of the past 50 days. Here are these SPX 3-day forward returns after every event like this in the past 20 years -2.8% -7.7% -0.1% -1.3% -2.6% -0.1% +0.9% -1.8% -0.8%
According to my data, this is the first time in history that VIX will spend a weekend at exactly 19.99 I have no idea why anyone would find this interesting.
Well, SHIT. QQQ just dropped -7.29% in exactly 7 trading days from a new all time high. You should see the 1-week forward returns and 5 day draw downs after QQQ dropped at least this much in exactly 7 days from an ATH with VXN under 40.
SPX just had multiple -1% days within a 3 day stretch after going 50 trading days without a single one. And would you like to know how SPX did going forward after the other 4 times it did this in the past 50 years?
This is now only the 2nd time in the history of the US 10 year Treasury that it has gone from under 4% to over 5.3% with 500 trading days. The only other time? June 2007
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