First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha

My iPhone Duo video went viral, so I'm giving away 100 iPhones on X 😛

iPhone Duo Review: 10,000 Folds Later...

$USDJPY bearish setup in play: • Major trendline broken 📉 • Rebound attempt denied ❌ • Testing the critical neckline now ⚠️ Make-or-break level here. Watch closely. #USDJPY #Forex #Trading

CXMT may just be the opening. YMTC is in pre-IPO coaching, Unitree opens subscriptions on Aug. 10, Enflame has secured approval, and BrainCo has reportedly filed confidentially in Hong Kong. SMEE and LandSpace are unconfirmed. China’s deep-tech IPO wave may be just beginning.

One more pressure point: duration. US20Y broke back above 5.2%, while the 30Y reached 5.274%, its highest since 2007. Memory now faces both a China-supply narrative. Until yields cool, relief rallies remain vulnerable.

📉💥 Weekly Update: CXMT Reprices Memory, KOSPI Capitulates, SOXX Cracks China rang the IPO bell, and the global memory trade cracked. CXMT’s blockbuster debut hit SNDK and MU, fed the KOSPI rout and helped push the semiconductor complex through another violent week.

My base case: a policy corridor, not a clean yen bull market. Intervention flushed shorts, but the US–Japan rate gap still supports USDJPY. Sharp yen weakness may trigger another round; an uncontrolled yen surge risks a carry unwind. Both sides now look constrained.

A stronger yen can become a global margin call. Yen-funded carry trades work while the currency stays weak and volatility stays low. A sudden yen rally forces hedging and deleveraging, pressuring equities, credit and other crowded risk trades.

Weekly update: USDJPY intervention The yen just reminded markets that USDJPY has a policy ceiling. USDJPY fell from near 164 to below 158 after Japan intervened and the US later reportedly joined. This was not a normal technical reversal.

@asklivermore CNBC aside, Barron‘s had a “good” track record as well

$SMH & $SOXX have now lost their neckline. That’s not where you want to see leadership if semi is going higher. Until they reclaim it, the path of least resistance looks lower. Not everything is weak though. Names like $NTAP continue to show RS. That’s where my attention is.

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@Geight16 x.com/1stpalpha/stat…

First Principles Investing @1stPAlpha

3 months ago

$000660 SK Hynix Lack of a bounce is a bearish signal. Typically, deleveraging and extreme pessimism are followed by a relief rally. That didn't happen. Today's follow-through points to the next support near the 200MA/Feb & Mar highs, around psychological ₩1.0M level.

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