Incident Update - Oct 13th, 2026
Ledger is asking resellers and distributors in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong to suspend sales of Ledger devices while the investigation is ongoing. This includes taking products off the shelves.
Specifically the countries are: Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Hong Kong.
To be clear, as the investigation continues, the only confirmed incidents remain contained to Southeast Asia. We have not verified a drain linked to a device bought elsewhere.
The investigation is ongoing to determine who tampered with these devices and where in the distribution chain it happened. The Ledger Donjon will analyze the devices it receives, and Ledger Customer Support will provide guidance to users who reach out through our official channel: support.ledger.com.
We understand this is concerning, and will continue to provide updates from the Ledger Donjon as the investigation progresses. Stay vigilant.
We have no indication that Ledger's infrastructure, systems or services or direct sales channel have been compromised.
#Bitcoin – What's Next?
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
🚩TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:
Last week in the Sunday report that was shared in Premium only, mentioned that 50% of the short position was filled with an average entry of 80,500 in the 79-82k batch, with the remaining 50% sitting in orders between 83-85k. Nothing has changed in the plan, and the market continues to deliver exactly what we have been waiting for since the call at 120k. The 120k short remains open, the 80,500 shorts remain open, and the orders between 83-85k remain placed. The plan is simple, and discipline is everything. As long Bitcoin moves below 80k, I do nothing and just keep holding the shorts, once BTC allows to visit 83-85k my orders are waiting to be triggered. As long as the market gives us this gift, I take it. This is not the time to chase, not the time to flip bullish, not the time to listen to the noise on X. This is the time to position, wait, and let the market do what it has been preparing to do for months.
We are in the final stage of Stage 4 of my 6-stage bear market framework. ( Read about the Framework here: x.com/DrProfitCrypto…) The exhaustion can be really felt, the sideways action is real, the frustration is real. This is exactly what Stage 4 looks like before the transition into Stage 5, the true capitulation phase. Stage 5 begins once we break below 60k, and from there the panic accelerates. Forced selling from long-term holders, exchange or large player collapse, black swan-type events, this is what Stage 5 brings. The 40-50k region remains my ultimate bottom target, with September-October 2026 as the most likely timeline based on my calculations
I see many messages of those who missed the 80-85k entries, I would not FOMO into shorts now, everything below 80k is a deadly area with a lot of volatility, the clear area for shorts is 80-85k, and this is what I am looking for since February. Markets never move in straight lines, and never believe the crash is happening quick, its always exhausting and destructive. People fail to understand this, especially those who believe its a good time to buy.
Calendar this week: The Fed's PCE inflation data was released Friday May 29th as expected. ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday June 2nd, ADP Employment on Wednesday June 4th, and the big one, Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday June 6th. Any weakness in employment data combined with sticky inflation puts the Fed in an impossible position. Warsh's first FOMC as Chair is approaching in June, and markets are pricing in a dovish tone that I personally doubt will be delivered.
Summary:
Short from 115-125k fully open
Short from 79-82k filled, average entry 80,500
Remaining short orders at 83-85k still placed
71k long fully closed, profit realized last week!
Stage 4 nearing completion, Stage 5 starts on 60k break
Final bottom: 40-50k region, September-October 2026
SP500 shorts in a loss, but crash is loading
Nothing has changed since the call at 120k. The plan is the plan, the discipline is everything, and the patience is paying off. We are in the most important weeks of this bear market. Stay focused. Join the DrProfit Premium membership here: whop.com/joined/drprofi…
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY.
#Bitcoin – Special Weekly Report:
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Bitcoin is currently in Stage 4 out of 6 in the current bear market: These six stages are my own framework, developed through direct observation of every major
#Bitcoin – Special Weekly Report:
The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know
🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown: Bitcoin is currently in Stage 4 out of 6 in the current bear market: These six stages are my own framework, developed through direct observation of every major Bitcoin bull and bear market so far. The structure repeats because the underlying drivers repeat: liquidity mechanics, leverage positioning, and predictable human behavior under stress and current panic.
Stage 1: Euphoric market and insane buying appetite:
This is what happened between 115k and 125k. The first stage mainly ends with extended sideways movement at euphoric levels, often biased in one direction, or with sudden spikes to the upside after a long consolidation despite extreme bullish sentiment. On the surface, everything looks strong, but in reality the market is overloaded and overleveraged, with late entrants who believe risk has disappeared. Insane price predictions happen here, and people reach the highest level of greed.
Stage 2: Breakdown of a highly important psychological level:
This stage begins once we drop below an important psychological mark, which in this cycle was 100k. The psychological level is extremely important because its loss stresses short-term investors and flushes out leverage traders, giving them the first warning signs that their euphoric dream from Stage 1 is over. The speed of the second move is noticeable and intentional. It happens very quickly and does not allow investors to rethink, recalculate, or properly manage their positions. The market acts before they can react. It front-runs them, and many lose control here. The best example was the fast crash on the 10th of October, which caused the largest liquidation event in crypto history. It happened within a few hours.
Stage 3: The fastest and most brutal move + bear market confirmation:
After Stage 2, the market needs to move even faster. Market makers cannot allow retail to realize what is happening; the speed needs to be maintained, so an even more brutal downside move follows. Stage 3 is the fastest of all phases and fully confirms the bear market with an extreme and rapid downside move, typically exceeding a 50% drawdown from the all-time high, which has been the case. In this scenario, investors are in deep depression and strong panic. They had no time to recalculate, hedge correctly, or reduce leverage. They are sitting on losses they never prepared for. I consider Stage 3 the most brutal phase of a bear market. It happens very fast and removes reaction time. The move from 97k in January to 60k in February, a crash of 50% within only 30 days, reflects that brutality. Many have not realized that nearly 50% of BTC’s market cap was wiped out within 30 days. The most violent mechanical repricing is likely behind us, and we have now entered Stage 4, which brings retail into psychological torture.
Stage 4: Dehydration, depression, and perfect liquidity creation:
This is where we are now. Stage 4 is not very violent or volatile, but it is extremely exhausting. The price moves sideways for a long period, often several months, within its own defined region. This is why I defined the current sideways structure and drew the “box,” showing clear upside and downside boundaries. You could also describe this as a weak-hands selling zone. A sideways move allows market makers to generate liquidity on both the upside and downside by trapping breakout traders and breakdown sellers. Sideways does not mean nothing is happening in the market, that is what retail sees when markets move sideways for a long time, but the message is much bigger. It means the market is preparing to exhaust participants fully while creating a large cluster of liquidity below the current zone, an area defined as the future capitulation region. This phase creates dehydration, frustration, regret, and anxiety. Retail traders start saying, “Bitcoin will drop another 30–40%; it’s better to sell here.” Many think the same way. Most short-term holder capitulation happens in Stage 4. Retail traders exit here because they missed selling in Stage 1, failed to sell in Stage 2, and had no time to react in Stage 3. Now they sell at a loss, as on-chain data confirms. Based on the data I see, the breakdown below the box that will bring us into Stage 5 is more likely to happen in a few months, not in the coming weeks. For the short term, I have placed buy orders between 57–60k within the current sideways structure and expect a bounce in the short to mid term. This does not change my broader outlook of lower targets.
Stage 5: Total fear, drama, and capitulation:
This is the true capitulation phase. It is not always the fastest move, but it is the most emotional one. Fear turns into panic, and panic turns into forced selling, even among experienced long-term holders. This stage is often connected with the collapse of a large player, an exchange failure, or a black swan event. It is remarkable to see panic selling after an asset is already down 50–70% from its all-time high, yet this phenomenon repeats every cycle. Originally, I projected the bottom between 50–60k when BTC was trading at 120k. In January, I adjusted this to 40–50k. With current macro data and visible stress in global markets, including the REPO and liquidity markets, I now consider 35–45k as the ultimate bottom scenario. That implies another significant downside from current levels, where the final capitulation is likely to play out.
Stage 6: Stabilization and structural reversal:
This final stage is a mix of total fear, volatility, and continued sideways movement. Selling pressure gradually disappears, and the market begins building the foundation for the next bullish cycle. Structurally, market makers prepare for recovery. This is the moment when large players begin accumulating heavily during capitulation, while retail investors scream for lower and lower prices, calling for extreme targets such as 10k or below. Retail becomes greedy again for lower prices and ultimately misses the bottom, a perfect repeat of every cycle in which retail investors buy high and sell low.
Right now, we are in Stage 4. The worst in terms of high-speed mechanical downside is likely behind us, but the real psychological damage phase has just begun. Regret increases. People rethink their decisions. They calculate exit plans that come too late. This is the reason why we have seen the largest short-term holder capitulation in the last few days. The key lesson remains simple: never let the market trade you; you trade the market. When price moves fast, reaction time disappears. When price moves slowly, discipline disappears. Understanding these stages allows you to operate structurally rather than emotionally. My heavy accumulation will begin between Stage 5 and Stage 6, not before. This pattern has repeated across every Bitcoin cycle so far. Human behavior is an architecture repeating under different market conditions, but the architecture itself always remains the same.
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BTC is going to 200k anyway, why not buying now?
Some might argue that buying today is the same if we look at the long term and expect 200k or more. This is absolutely dangerous thinking, retarded and stupid at the same time. Let’s do a simple calculation with a small amount of money. Let’s say someone only has 20k USD and is stupid enough to believe that whether he buys now or in a few months does not matter because BTC is going to 200k+ anyway.
At the current price of 70k, you only get 0.28 BTC. So once BTC reaches 200k, your funds will be worth 56,000 USD. RETARDED.
Now let’s do the calculation using a high-IQ model. Someone buys BTC at 40k with the same 20k amount and receives 0.5 BTC. That 0.5 BTC will be worth 100k once BTC reaches 200k. That is 78.6% higher than the idiot who believes in the stupid DCA strategy. Use your brain. Education is important
Also, only a total retard would put one order at exactly 40k. My orders will most likely be between 40-50, to catch most of the big fish. Orders above 60 and even close to 70 is fully retarded
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