ASP Sports | Bringing football scouting out of the Stone Age | Econometric Regression & Forecasting Modeling | Your eyes lie to you | @Occidental Economics Los Angeles, CAJoined March 2023
there are very few resources for learning how to code with NFL data than @BradCongelio’s book. it covers everything from the basics with R to data visualization to advanced model creation
bradcongelio.com/nfl-analytics-…
When I go on twitter/tik tok, i see that every single player in the nfl is prized for a breakout season or is better than other “and it’s not even close.”
We must be in for a great season if everyone’s breaking out!
(P.S. 95% of these players have minuscule chances)
sack avoidance is a much more relevant trait than interception avoidance yet doesn't get the same weight in quarterback discourse
sack rate and pressure to sack rate are more stable year-to-year than INT rate plus the QB has more control over sacks compared to fluky INT's
So for as much credit as Howie Roseman gets and deserves, between this and the missed “opportunity” to sign Allen Robinson, the Eagles and their GM really dodged some bullets.
So for as much credit as Howie Roseman gets and deserves, between this and the missed “opportunity” to sign Allen Robinson, the Eagles and their GM really dodged some bullets.
The theory is, a player with elite athleticism shows signs of “getting back to prior form” faster than non-elite RBs, providing a higher chance of good fantasy production in Y1 return.
Of note:
-Deuce McAllister fit the mold too with 4 known elite metrics but tore his ACL at…
There are glimpses of positive outcomes in Year 1 post-ACLR for elite running backs in their prime:
-Edgerrin James: two 4-week spans of 19.57 and 19.35 fppg, but hampered by partially torn hamstring. Colts probably should not have given him 30-40 touches a game in Y1.
-Adrian…
Before we get into full on “best shape of his life” season, here’s 24 seconds of D’Andre Swift shoving the Bears in locker
He’s one of the most turbo RBs in the NFL and I can’t BELIEVE he’s on the Eagles now
Breece Hall, hitting unbelievable top-end speeds at 6 months out from ACLR.
And he still has 3 months 25 days to Week 1. And people still want to fade him for this year.
90th+ percentile athlete 🫣
Breece Hall, hitting unbelievable top-end speeds at 6 months out from ACLR.
And he still has 3 months 25 days to Week 1. And people still want to fade him for this year.
90th+ percentile athlete 🫣 https://t.co/0Zu4r9UPVw
I know @Giants fans may not get to see the true workings of the inside of the organization, but let me tell ya, what a 1st class organization top/bottom. 1st class people with a shared vision of success. Impressive!! Doing it the right way. Can’t wait for this ride! #BigBlue 💙🍎
Formulaically:
Coaching = Residual(Offensive Rating ~ Player Level PFF Grades)
it is not perfect but its a start. Ideally We could extract JUST player skill from PFF Grades, but I'm not sure that's possible.
Kyle Pitts is younger than -
Zay Flowers
Dalton Kincaid
Luke Musgrave
Rashee Rice
Luke Schoonmaker
Jayden Reed
Will Levis
Etc
Y'all remember this was the best tight end prospect ever?
Y'all remember this was the best rookie tight end of all time?
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